August 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2008
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AFRICA

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action
The Group of Experts on sanctions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is expected to submit its next report to the DRC Sanctions Committee by 15 August. The Sanctions Committee may report to the Council after considering the Group of Experts’ report.

Recent Developments
On 3 July, the Secretary-General reported on the UN Mission in the DRC (MONUC) and described the overall security situation as “tenuous”. He noted that while there had been a decline in the number of violations of the ceasefire in North Kivu, there had been an increase in attacks against civilian targets carried out by armed groups. This included an attack by the Forces démocratiques de liberation du Rwanda (FDLR) on 4 June against internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Kinyandoni. The FDLR and the Coalition des patriotes résistants congolais (PARECO) also continued to attack positions of the Congolese national army. In South Kivu, insecurity also increased with armed robberies of international NGOs and transport vehicles. The FDLR also seems to be maintaining collaboration with the Mayi-Mayi militia in South Kivu.

The Secretary-General’s report also highlighted the need to accelerate the process for resolving the situation in eastern DRC and to develop legitimate government institutions in order to meet benchmarks for the eventual drawdown of MONUC. He noted that continued political engagement by the various parties was necessary for the success of the Goma Agreement (reached between the Congolese government and various armed groups in North and South Kivu on 23 January) and the Nairobi Agreement (reached 9 November 2007 between the DRC and Rwanda to cooperate against common security threats).

The International Criminal Court (ICC), on 7 July, reversed its 2 July decision to release Thomas Lubanga Dyilo, leader of the rebel militia Union des patriotes congolais. Lubanga had been accused of recruiting and using child soldiers. The ICC said that Lubanga should remain in custody until a decision was made on the appeal by the prosecution. Previously the ICC Trial Chamber had found that prosecutors had withheld evidence from the defense.

The Pact on Security, Stability and Development in the Great Lakes Region entered into force on 21 June following its ratification by eight of the 11 core countries of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR). Under the agreement, the participating countries commit themselves to address the underlying causes of the conflicts in the region and to deal with major security, development, humanitarian, governance and social issues from a regional perspective. The eight countries that ratified were Burundi, the Central African Republic, the DRC, Kenya, the Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. The first ICGLR summit to be held after the Pact’s entry into force will be held in Kinshasa in mid-December.

On 24 April, the DRC Sanctions Committee decided to remove the name of Congolese businessman Kisoni Kambale from its consolidated assets freeze and travel ban list. However, the Committee decided to maintain the assets freeze imposed on entities associated with Kambale, Butembo Airlines and Congocom Trading House. These were separately designated for provision of assistance to illegal armed groups in breach of the arms embargo imposed in 2003 and 2005. The delisting of Kambale, who is reportedly dead, was the first delisting since the DRC Sanctions Committee was set up in March 2004.

Key Issues
The key issue for the Sanctions Committee is the impact for the sanctions regime (arms embargo, assets freeze and travel ban) in light of the Secretary-General’s description of the security situation as remaining fragile.

Another major issue relates to the possible extension of sanctions to those groups illegally operating particularly in the eastern parts of the DRC, especially those responsible for serious violations of international law involving sexual violence and the recruiting and use of children in armed conflict. It is now two years since the Council adopted resolution 1698 calling for sanctions against actors recruiting and using children in armed conflict in the DRC. However, no list of individuals or entities has been drawn up. In January, the Council president conveyed the “grave concern” of its Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict to the DRC Sanctions Committee about this.

In June resolution 1820 reiterated the Council’s condemnation of violence against women and children in conflict situations and indicated an intention to consider the “appropriateness of targeted and graduated measures against parties to situations of armed conflict who commit rape and other forms of sexual violence against women and girls in situations of armed conflict.”

Options
Options for the DRC sanctions committee include:

  • considering the report of the Group of Experts and reporting to the Council quickly;
  • considering the report of the Group of Experts but delaying reporting the Council until a later date; and
  • recommending additions to the sanctions list in light of resolutions 1698 and 1820.

Council Dynamics
The DRC Sanctions Committee (which is made up of all Council members) appears to be agreed on the ongoing relevance of the sanctions regime until the situation further stabilises and the Congolese government gains effective control of its national territory. (The recent delisting of Kisoni Kambale was said to have been prompted by a “factual finding” that he was deceased, and therefore it was no longer deemed necessary to retain his name on the sanctions list.)

There appear to be differences among members on whether to add to the sanctions list. Members like Belgium, France, UK and US have broached the idea that sanctions would incentivise better behaviour from those responsible for attacks on civilians. Others like China, Indonesia and Russia have expressed concern about the timing and consequent ineffectiveness of such additions, arguing that action could undermine the Goma peace process by alienating affected individuals and/or parties. The sanctions committees operate on the basis of consensus, and accordingly the upcoming report of the DRC sanctions Group of Experts may help shed further light on the matter.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1820 (19 June 2008) indicated the Council’s intention to consider the “appropriateness of targeted and graduated measures” against parties who committed acts of violence towards women and girls in situations of conflict.
  • S/RES/1807 (31 March 2008) lifted the arms embargo for government forces and strengthened measures related to aviation and customs.
  • S/RES/1804 (13 March 2008) demanded all members of Rwandan armed groups operating in eastern DRC lay down their arms, called upon DRC and Rwanda to implement commitments under the Nairobi communiqué, and asked states to cooperate with the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda.
  • S/RES/1799 (15 February 2008) renewed the sanctions regime and the mandate of the Group of Experts until 31 March 2008.
  • S/RES/1794 (21 December 2007) renewed the mandate of MONUC until 31 December 2008.
  • S/RES/1698 (31 July 2006), 1649 (21 December 2005) and 1596 (18 April 2005) strengthened sanctions, including, in resolution 1698, provisions against actors recruiting and using children in armed conflict in the DRC.
  • S/RES/1533 (12 March 2004) established the Sanctions Committee and the Group of Experts.

Latest Presidential Statement

  • S/PRST/2008/2 (30 January 2008) commended the government and other parties for organizing the Goma conference on a ceasefire and disarmament of armed groups.

Latest Secretary-General’s Report

  • S/2008/433 (3 July 2008) was the latest (26th) report on the DRC.

Selected Sanctions Committee Document

  • S/2008/43 (11 February 2008) was the latest report of the Group of Experts for the DRC.

Other

  • SC/9312 (28 April 2008) was the press release on the DRC sanctions committee delisting of Kisoni Kambale from its consolidated assets freeze and travel ban list.
  • S/AC.51/2008/4 (14 January 2008) was the letter from the president of the Council to the chair of the DRC Sanctions Committee following up on the recommendations of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict.

Other Relevant Facts

Chairman of the DRC Sanctions Committee

Ambassador R.M. Marty M. Natalegawa (Indonesia)

Group of Experts

  • Abdoulaye Cissoko (Mali, aviation expert)
  • Caty Clément (Belgium, regional expert)
  • Amadou Hamidou (Niger, customs expert)
  • Ramón Miranda Ramos (Spain, arms expert and Coordinator of the Group)
  • Gregory Salter (UK, finance expert)

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission

Alan Doss (UK)

MONUC Force Commander

Lieutenant-General Babacar Gaye (Senegal)

Size, Composition and Cost of Mission

  • Strength as of 30 June is 16,666 troops, 693 military observers, 1,046 police and 939 international civilian personnel.
  • Approved budget (1 July 2007-30 June 2008): $1,115.65 million

Duration

30 November 1999 to present; mandate expires on 31 December 2008

 

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