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Iraq

Expected Council Action
The mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) will expire on 10 August. The Council is expected to renew the mandate for 12 months without change. In June 2004, resolution 1546 established both the mandate for the UN in Iraq and also authorised the presence of the Multinational Force (MNF-I). In 2007, the UNAMI mandate and the MNF-I mandate were separated. Resolution 1770 provided a new and more detailed mandate for UNAMI including assisting in the advancement of political dialogue and national reconciliation, facilitation of regional talks addressing border issues, energy and refugees, and aid in implementation of the Iraq Compact. The MNF-I mandate was separately authorised in resolution 1790 and will expire in December 2008.

The next report from the Secretary-General on UNAMI is due on 31 July. Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs, B. Lynn Pascoe, is expected to brief the Council on 6 August. The Council is expected to consider renewal of the UNAMI mandate on 8 August.

It is unlikely that the Council will take up issues relating to the MNF-I given that a review was conducted in June.
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Key Recent Developments
On 13 June, the Council debated the situation in Iraq and progress with the MNF-I mandate. The Council also received a briefing from the US on behalf of the MNF-I. The Special Adviser on the International Compact with Iraq, Ibrahim Gambari, briefed the Council on recent UNAMI activities. Warren Sach, the Assistant Secretary-General, Controller, briefed the Council on the International Advisory and Monitoring Board (IAMB), which has audit oversight of the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI).

US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad said that the security environment in Iraq continued to improve. He acknowledged al-Qaida and other armed extremists still had the capability of carrying out attacks throughout Iraq. He called on Syria to halt the operation of networks supplying suicide bombers in Iraq, and urged Iran to cease its sponsorship of violent Iraqi elements. He emphasised the increase in numbers and capability of the Iraqi security forces and the progressive transfer of responsibility for security from MNF-I to the Iraqi government, noting that nine out of 18 provinces are now under Iraqi control. (On 16 July, Qadisiyah province was also transferred to Iraqi control.) Finally, he said the Iraqi government needed to implement a series of measures to sustain security gains, in particular by increasing delivery of humanitarian assistance to refugees, continuing progress in political reconciliation, and holding provincial elections.

Gambari said progress in political dialogue was crucial because the security situation, while improving, remained fragile. Updating the Council on the recent activities of UNAMI, he said its human rights personnel were hoping to gain access to places of detention to assess the situation of Iraqi detainees. He also emphasised the necessity to alleviate the suffering of Iraqi refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), and said the UN was developing a programme for refugee return to ensure the Iraqi government and aid agencies were prepared for when conditions are appropriate.

Sach highlighted weaknesses in financial controls over Iraqi oil proceeds, and said spending ministries reported less than 15 percent of audit recommendations had been implemented. He said the practice of briefings by the Secretary-General’s representative to Council members should continue.

Iraq’s Foreign Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, also spoke. He emphasised significant accomplishments in security, political and economic fields. He said Iraq continued to need the MNF-I assistance, in particular to support provincial elections set for October (these have since been delayed to December). He said despite the Iraqi security forces being better trained, equipped and in greater numbers, they were still not able to independently assume full responsibility for the maintenance of security in all Iraqi territory. He told the Council Iraq was negotiating bilateral security agreements with the US which would replace the UN-mandate for MNF-I as it expires at the end of the year. Those agreements should reflect progress achieved in the development of Iraqi security forces, be subject to approval by Iraq’s Council of Representatives and preserve Iraq’s sovereignty and national interests.

The Council adopted a press statement agreeing to support the MNF-I mandate and the DFI and IAMB arrangements. The statement also expressed appreciation for UN assistance to Iraq, recognised efforts made by the Iraqi government to improve security, national reconciliation, and reconstruction and to combat terrorism and sectarian violence.

On 5 June, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative in Iraq, Staffan de Mistura, presented to the Iraq government UNAMI’s initial analysis on possible processes to resolve disputed internal boundaries. Analytical reports were presented on four specific districts in northern Iraq with the aim of contributing to processes to resolve these issues.

On 29 May, Sweden hosted the first annual review of the International Compact with Iraq, an Iraqi-led five-year partnership with the international community aimed at achieving long-term stability and sustainable development. Around one hundred states and organisations attended the conference, which was co-chaired by the Secretary-General and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Maliki requested cancellation of around $60 billion of Iraq’s international debt and termination of Iraq’s continuing compensation payments related to Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. In a final declaration, the participants recognised progress made by Iraq in the fields of security and legislation, and reaffirmed their intention to promote investment and trade with Iraq. They also defined emerging priorities such as development, human rights, reconstruction and economic governance.

On 6 July, the United Arab Emirates announced it had cancelled Iraq’s debt of almost $7 billion. On 10 July, the Kuwaiti government announced it would refer the cancellation of Iraq’s debts to parliament and meet with UN officials to confer about the possibility of cancelling war compensation. (Iraq currently allocates five percent of its oil revenue to meet the compensation claims. A further $28 billion is owed.)

On 19 July, the appointment of six Sunni cabinet ministers was approved after nearly a year-long boycott of the government by the main Sunni political bloc. The six ministers were members of the Accordance Front (Tawafiq). The bloc suspended its membership from parliament and withdrew from the government on 1 August 2007 over power sharing. Parliament also approved four members of the Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance to fill cabinet posts vacated by Sadrists and Iraqi National List members of parliament. (In April 2007, six ministers loyal to Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr withdrew from the cabinet over the prime minister’s refusal to set a timetable for an US troop withdrawal from Iraq.)

On 22 July, Iraq’s parliament passed the governorate election law. The Kurdish bloc boycotted the vote after objecting to how the law dealt with Kirkuk. The Presidency Council, headed by President Jalal Talabani, rejected the law on 23 July. The Kurds are calling for a long-delayed referendum in Kirkuk to determine its status. Provincial elections had been scheduled for October, but because of delays in reaching an agreement between all factions, have been delayed until December.

Negotiations between Iraq and the US on a broad strategic framework agreement and status of forces agreement have encountered difficulties and it seems that agreement will not be concluded by 31 July as the US had anticipated. According to the White House, in the area of security cooperation, both sides agreed to include a “general time horizon” for the withdrawal of US troops based on continued improving conditions on the ground. Shi’a cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani have denounced the negotiations and reportedly oppose a long term agreement, favouring a short term pact.

Options
The Council is unlikely to consider any other options than renewing the UNAMI mandate for a further 12 months.

At some stage, however, the Council may need to consider options for successor security arrangements for UNAMI, in the event the MNF-I mandate is not renewed in December. (MNF-I currently provides UNAMI security.)

Key Issues
The UNAMI report is likely to discuss progress made in activities undertaken to satisfy its detailed set of requirements, as mandated in resolution 1770. Discussions are likely to centre on the following issues:

• Refugees: Maliki stated at the Stockholm conference that his government would work to create conditions to facilitate the return of refugees and IDPs and provide them with financial incentives (the government has allotted $195 million). However, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and various nongovernmental organisations are concerned improvements in the security situation are insufficient to support returnees at this stage. A related issue is the lack of funding for UN agencies despite the UN issuing a relief appeal in February, as well as the Iraqi government’s apparent lack of capacity to spend aid money efficiently. It is reported up to five million Iraqis have fled their homes for security reasons, with half of these now outside the country and the other half internally displaced.
• Internally disputed territories and the status of Kirkuk: Many of Iraq’s political factions were unhappy with UNAMI’s first set of analysis presented in June.The Council will be interested in further progress reports on the outcomes of UNAMI’s continued engagement with stakeholders on the issue.
• Electoral Law: A key question is whether the governorate elections will be held this year. The status of Kirkuk is an issue.
• Constitutional review process: On 21 July, the Head of the Constitutional Review Committee announced its final report had been drafted and would be passed to the Executive Council for comment. Disputed issues being considered by the Committee include power-sharing among the presidency, the governorates and the regions, as well as issues of oil-revenue sharing.

UNAMI’s security beyond the expiry of the MNF-I mandate in December will become an issue. On 18 December 2007, the Council renewed the MNF-I mandate for one year noting the government of Iraq considered this to be its final request for such an extension. Resolution 1770 recognises the essential role of MNF-I in enabling UNAMI to carry out its work in Iraq. A successor will be required to continue the support currently provided by MNF-I to UNAMI.

Council Dynamics
During the June debate, most members demonstrated ongoing support for the UN role in Iraq, in particular its work regarding the disputed boundaries. Council members continue to be satisfied with the reinvigoration of the mandate of UNAMI in resolution 1770, and are keen to see UNAMI achieve real progress in implementing this mandate. Iraq is supportive of a mandate renewal for UNAMI.

During the June debate, almost all Council members welcomed the assessments made by the Iraqi foreign minister and the US regarding progress in the security and political fields. However, most members raised concerns over the ongoing humanitarian situation. Panama may like to see a greater focus on humanitarian aspects of UNAMI’s current mandate.

Members are conscious of the need to address the issue of security for UNAMI personnel in the event that the MNF-I does not have its mandate renewed in December. Neither the US nor the UK believes UNAMI’s protection will dramatically change after December, whether or not the MNF-I mandate is renewed. Some successor will likely carry out the necessary support to UNAMI. Council members, including both the US and UK expect that in the medium term UNAMI will transition to security self-reliance, supported by the Iraqi government, once security conditions are appropriate.

UN Documents

Other Relevant Facts

Useful Additional Sources

• UNAMI press release: UNAMI presents first analysis to help resolve on disputed internal boundaries, 5 June 2008
• International Crisis Group, Failed Responsibility: Iraq Refugees in Syria, Jordan and Lebanon, Middle East Report no. 77, 10 July 2008
• Iraq Consolidated Appeal Mid-year Status Update, June 2008

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