August 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 July 2008
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
AFRICA

Sudan

Expected Council Action
The situation in Darfur, attacks on the UN-AU Mission (UNAMID), lack of cooperation regarding its deployment, and tensions arising from proceedings before the International Criminal Court (ICC) mean that Darfur issues will continue to be on the Council’s agenda in August. However, given the uncertainty arising from the continuing impasse on ICC-related aspects, it was unclear at press time how those issues would play out, or how they would impact on Council action in August. 

The Secretary-General’s quarterly report on the UN Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS, which is deployed in the south) is expected to be discussed in August. A briefing by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Ashraf Qazi, is possible, including comments on the mission’s capabilities especially in the contested region of Abyei. It is unclear whether proposals for formal action will emerge.

Key Recent Developments
Conditions in Sudan and the region continued to deteriorate in July. Humanitarian assistance remains severely affected, including because of obstruction by government officials and insecurity caused by all sides. UNAMID’s ability to move equipment and supplies has also been severely affected by the lack of cooperation and security problems.

On 8 July, seven UNAMID troops were killed and 19 wounded after an attack and a three-hour heavy exchange of fire in a government-controlled area in North Darfur. The attack was apparently orchestrated and carried out by two hundred militia members armed with machine guns and anti-aircraft weapons aboard some forty vehicles. On 9 July, the Council adopted a press statement condemning the attack. After a Secretariat briefing on the incident, members also adopted a presidential statement on 16 July noting that the attack had been “premeditated, deliberate and intended to inflict casualties”, and that the Council is determined to “take action against those responsible” on hearing the outcome of an ongoing UN investigation.

A week later, another UNAMID peacekeeper was shot and killed in West Darfur during an attempted carjacking. The attacks once again drew attention to the equipment and troop shortfalls plaguing UNAMID’s effectiveness and credibility.

On 14 July, the ICC Chief Prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, presented an application for a warrant of arrest against Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir alleging genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. ICC judges must rule on whether to grant the warrant, but a decision may take some time. If it is granted, states parties to the Rome Statute are under obligation to execute it if Bashir is on their territory. Sudan is obliged to fully cooperate with the ICC under resolution 1593.

The Sudanese government strongly criticised the warrant request, warning that it may negatively impact a peace process in Darfur, humanitarian operations, Sudan’s cooperation with UNAMID’s deployment and the north-south situation.

The AU and the Arab League also voiced concerns about the warrant. By contrast, a number of UN member states and civil society organisations expressed support for progress with accountability issues in Darfur, and for the independence of the Court and the Chief Prosecutor.

The Secretary-General held talks with the Sudanese government in mid-July. He clarified that the Secretariat has no influence over the ICC, and urged Khartoum to ensure the security of humanitarian workers and the ability of UNMIS and UNAMID to carry out their mandates. The situation seemed relatively calm at press time, but there were reports of harassment against UNAMID staff following the ICC developments.

Sudan launched domestic and diplomatic efforts to counter the warrant request. This included pressure, particularly through the Arab League and AU members, for Council action under article 16 of the Rome Statute. Under this provision, the Council may request a suspension of ICC proceedings for one year, renewable, through a Chapter VII resolution.

The Arab League initially proposed a plan, under which Sudan would pledge to step up domestic judicial proceedings with international monitoring in return for a suspension of ICC proceedings. Sudan rejected this possibility and indicated it might revive domestic human rights courts, reportedly inviting international experts to assess the state of Sudan’s judiciary. But no further details appear to have emerged as to whether trials would resume, and there is controversy as to whether Sudanese law includes provisions curbing war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity in line with international standards. It was also unclear whether Ali Kushayb and Ahmed Haroun (already subject to ICC warrants) would be included in such domestic judicial proceedings.

Sudan seems also to be proposing an all-inclusive peace conference, promising cooperation with UNAMID and renewing pledges of implementation of the Darfur Peace Agreement. But Khartoum also seems to be sending a variety of conflicting signals on the issue; some Sudanese officials have reportedly warned that the safety of UNAMID and humanitarian workers may be threatened should an arrest warrant be granted.

On 21 July, the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) issued a communiqué requesting a UN Security Council resolution suspending ICC proceedings. Similarly, on 22 July, the Organisation of the Islamic Conference’s Group in New York wrote to the Council requesting the article 16 suspension.

On 24 July, following the AU PSC decision and the Arab League initiative, South Africa and Libya separately proposed that any draft resolution renewing UNAMID should include a paragraph mandating the suspension of ICC proceedings.

Members discussed the proposals on 28 July in consultations, but no agreement was reached.

(For further information, see our 28 July Update Report, which addresses the issue of ICC warrants in more detail.)

In his 7 July report, the Secretary-General noted that improvement of the security situation hinged on a cessation of hostilities and strengthening of UNAMID. The political process, however, remained stalled due to rebel fragmentation and suspicion among the parties. On 10 July, rebel commanders and humanitarian agencies held discussions on improving access and security. There are signals suggesting that rebels may be interested in uniting their groups.

On 30 June, the Secretary-General informed the Council of the appointment of Djibril Yipènè Bassolé of Burkina Faso as the new AU-UN Joint Chief Mediator. It is unclear whether existing plans for an international partners’ conference on the political process will materialise.

UNAMID continues to face significant troop and equipment shortfalls. Major logistical, infrastructure and bureaucratic problems have contributed to the slow pace of deployment, leading to new delays in the arrival of Ethiopian, Egyptian and Bangladeshi contingents.

At a meeting under the auspices of the Dakar Agreement Contact Group on 18 July, Sudan and Chad agreed to restore diplomatic relations, broken since a rebel attack on the outskirts of Khartoum in May. The Group has also held talks on a border monitoring force, which is expected to include two hundred monitors from the Contact Group members plus one thousand from Sudan and Chad each.

On the north-south situation, the parties missed a 1 July deadline for full withdrawal from the Abyei area, which is contested by the north and south. Withdrawals now seem to be making some progress, but southern officials have accused the north of backpedalling. In early July, the parties finalised details on proceedings at the Permanent Court of Arbitration regarding Abyei’s boundaries, but a final decision may take at least a year.

In early July, the Sudanese parliament adopted the much-awaited electoral law, a step essential for elections in 2009 as mandated by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). But southern officials expressed concern about possible bias in the law favouring the ruling National Congress Party and warned that key legislation on the media, national security and criminal acts need to be revised to ensure free and fair elections.

It seems that the Secretariat is conducting an assessment of UNMIS’ capabilities and configuration, to determine whether adjustments will be necessary. (Plans for the assessment pre-date the recent Abyei tensions.) Results may be included in the forthcoming Secretary-General’s report in September.

Related Developments at the Human Rights Council
The UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Sudan, Sima Samar, said during a visit to the region that rebel groups, in particular the Justice and Equality Movement, and the government have used child soldiers. (Samar’s mandate, established by the Human Rights Council, expires in December. Her next report is due in September.)

Options
On Darfur, until there is greater clarity on the outcome of discussions on possible article 16 ICC suspension, it is difficult to forecast what options might be on the table. (For background and analysis on existing options, see our 28 June Update.)

On north-south issues, an option is for the Council to adopt a more proactive and focused approach, including:

  • a process for closer monitoring of the CPA’s implementation, perhaps through informal Secretariat briefings every thirty days; and
  • considering options for strengthening UNMIS, in close consultation with the Secretariat and the parties.

Key Issues
On Darfur, one key issue is whether there is anything the Council can do to encourage the parties to move towards a genuine ceasefire and a peace process. Another is improving security and, in that context, how best to advance UNAMID’s deployment and improve Chad-Sudan relations.

Justice and accountability issues are likely to remain on the minds of Council members.

Still another issue is whether the Council should increase its focus on the broader challenges facing Sudan, especially regarding the CPA’s implementation. Related to this is whether consideration should be given to developing a new role and capabilities for UNMIS in support of the Agreement. Underlying issues on the CPA’s implementation include:

  • elections in 2009 and a southern independence referendum in 2011;
  • demarcating the north-south border;
  • the status of Abyei; and
  • oil-revenue sharing.

Council and Wider Dynamics
Traditional divisions within the Council on Darfur issues once again came to the forefront following the ICC Chief Prosecutor’s request. China, Russia, South Africa, Libya and Burkina Faso support the suspension of ICC proceedings on the grounds that an arrest warrant may put Sudan’s stability at risk and frustrate the prospects of peace negotiations in Darfur.

Other Council members—such as UK, France, Belgium, Italy, Croatia, Costa Rica, Panama and US—are concerned with safeguarding prospects for justice and accountability and opposed to Council interference in ICC proceedings. Those members reject the notion of holding UNAMID’s renewal hostage to the ICC issue.

Some observers have suggested that the ICC developments could provide a new element with which to pressure Khartoum to make meaningful concessions.

On the other issues regarding Darfur, no new ideas have emerged so it remains to be seen whether and how ICC developments will impact prospects for the humanitarian situation, a peace process and full UNAMID deployment.

Council attention to the north-south situation seems to have once again receded. The upcoming briefing by Special Representative Qazi may lead to a return to more focus on UNMIS’ capabilities and the CPA’s implementation. Some US officials, including Special Envoy Richard Williamson, voiced a degree of frustration with the mission’s response to the recent tensions in Abyei.

The Secretariat seems ready to provide clarification on mission capabilities and explain realistic expectations about what role it could play in the south including its lack of an enforcement role but also the options that exist to do more through the CPA’s ceasefire commission. (The Secretary-General, in a June 2006 report on the Ugandan rebel group Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) had noted that UNMIS had not been set up as a robust mission and that its military capabilities were limited. Observers note that this is in part due to the political circumstances surrounding the mission’s establishment, in particular pressure from both north and south Sudan for the mission to assume a largely monitoring and verification configuration.)

UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

Selected Security Council Presidential Statements

  • S/PRST/2008/27 (16 July 2008) was a statement signalling the Council’s determination to take action against those responsible for the 8 July attack against UNAMID troops.
  • S/PRST/2008/24 (24 June 2008) was a statement on Abyei.
  • S/PRST/2008/21 (16 June 2008) was a statement urging Sudan’s cooperation with the ICC.

Selected Secretary-General’s Reports

  • S/2008/443 (7 July 2008) was the latest UNAMID report.
  • S/2008/267 (22 April 2008) was the latest available UNMIS report at press time.
  • S/2006/478 (29 June 2006) was the LRA report.

Selected Council Meeting Records

  • S/PV.5905 (5 June 2008) was the most recent briefing by ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo.

Other

  • S/2008/483 (22 July 2008) was the OIC letter.
  • S/2008/481 (21 July 2008) contained the AU PSC communiqué.
  • S/2008/465 (14 July 2008) contained an AU decision signalling concern with the impact of ICC proceedings over the situation in Darfur.
  • S/2008/460 (15 July 2008) was the report of the June Council mission to Africa.
  • SC/9391 (9 July 2008) was a press statement condemning the 8 July attack against UNAMID troops.
  • A/HRC/7/22 (3 March 2008) was the most recent Sudan human rights report to the Human Rights Council.
  • S/2007/584 (2 October 2007) was the latest Panel of Experts’ report.

Other Relevant Facts

UNAMID: Joint AU-UN Special Representative for Darfur

Rodolphe Adada (Republic of Congo)

Joint AU-UN Chief Mediator

Djibrill Yipènè Bassolé (Burkina Faso)

UNAMID: Size, Composition and Cost

  • Maximum authorised strength: up to 19,555 military, 3,772 police and 19 formed police units
  • Strength as of 30 June 2008: 7,671 troops, 160 observers, 1,835 police
  • Main troop contributors: Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa and Senegal
  • Cost: 1 July 2008 – 30 June 2009: $1.5 billion

UNAMID: Duration

31 July 2007 to present; mandate expires 31 July 2008 (at press time)

UNMIS: Special Representative of the Secretary-General

Ashraf Qazi (Pakistan)

UNMIS: Size, Composition and Cost

  • Maximum authorised strength: up to 10,000 military and 715 police personnel
  • Strength as of 30 June 2008: 8,720 troops, 551 observers, and 664 police
  • Main troop contributors: India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
  • Cost: 1 July 2008-30 June 2009: $858.77 million

UNMIS: Duration

24 March 2005 to present; mandate expires 30 April 2009

Useful Additional Sources
Permanent Court of Arbritation, Abyei case summary and documentation:http://www.pca-cpa.org/shownews.asp?nws_id=212&pag_id=1261&ac=view

Full forecast

Subscribe to receive SCR publications