November 2005 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 October 2005
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Central African Republic

Expected Council Action
The Security Council will consider the report of the Secretary-General on the Central African Republic (CAR), due by 31 October 2005.

Key Facts
Following a period of unrest in CAR that ravaged the country in the late 1990s, the Council initially authorised the Inter-African Mission to Support the Bangui Agreements (MISAB). Subsequently the United Nations Mission in Central African Republic (MINURCA) was established. MINURCA remained in CAR until 2000, and was followed by the United Nations Peacebuilding Support Office in the Central African Republic (BONUCA).

The country experienced more violence; and a coup in 2003 by Francois Bozize. In May 2005, the country held an election, in which Bozize competed with ten other candidates and won. The election was observed by a mix of national and international observers and was declared by them to be free and fair.

Economically, despite hopes raised by progress made in achieving a degree of constitutional order, the country is experiencing serious problems, exacerbated by a recent flood.

There are also growing security problems related to the presence of armed gangs, especially in the north of the country. In addition, significant refugee flows have occurred in recent months. Thousands have fled from northern areas into neighbouring Chad.

Key Issues
Despite the UN’s peacebuilding role and progress in the democratisation process, the situation in CAR is fragile. 

The Council is again confronted with a situation in which, despite significant investment of UN resources, instability quickly remerges during the peacebuilding phase. In the absence, as yet, of a Peacebuilding Commission, an issue for the Council will be whether it should again become ?more proactive.

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UN Documents

Security Council Resolutions
S/Res/1271 (22 October 1999) noted elections and extended mandate of MINURCA for a final period until February 2000.
S/Res/1201 (15 October 1998) wel-comed announcement of elections and extended MINURCA mandate.
S/Res/1159 (27 March 1998) established MINURCA.
S/Res/1125 (06 August 1997) authorized Inter-African Mission to monitor the implementation of the Bangui Agreements (MISAB) peacekeeping.
Presidential Statements
S/PRST/2005/35 expressed concern about the deterioration of security and the worsening humanitarian situation.
S/PRST/2001/25 requested the Secretary-General to regularly inform the Council on CAR and welcomed BONUCA.
S/PRST/2000/5 welcomed the Secretary-General’s decision to establish BONUCA.
Selected Secretary-General’s Reports / Letters
 S/2005/414 described the electoral process and the continuing problems.

Historical Background

May 2005 Former coup leader Francois Bozize is elected president.
March 2003 Bozize successfully staged a coup.
February 2000 BONUCA political and peace-building mission commenced.
February 2000 Mandate of MINURCA expired.
27 March 1998 MINURCA deployed in CAR.
06 August 1997 Council authorized MISAB forces to intervene in CAR at the request of Patasse.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General
Lamine Cisse (Senegal)
Size and Composition of Peacebuilding Support Office
Strength as of 30 June 2005:  24 international civilians, 5 military advisers, 6 civilian police, 44 local civilians and 1 UN volunteer

Full forecast

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