November 2005 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 October 2005
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action
The Council mission will meet with a range of parties in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to convey support for the transition process and help build confidence in the lead up to elections.

The Sanctions Committee is expected to adopt a consolidated list of individual violators of the arms embargo.

Key Issues
A major issue is how to reinforce the transitional process in the lead up to the elections. This has four aspects:
•Internal confidence within the DRC (which the Council mission is designed to reinforce)
•Security issues (which are MONUC’s responsibility, but about which there are increasing differences)
•The need to address sanctions violations
•The regional dimension (particularly the ongoing tension between the DRC and its neighbours Rwanda and Uganda)

Council Dynamics
The Council has been divided over implementing targeted sanctions, but faced with the persistent difficulties in the DRC and the risks posed for the electoral process, a ?multi-pronged strategy seems to be emerging. This involves:
•Sending signals to the DRC, via the mission, of the importance of keeping the transition on track
•Reinforcing that message by beginning to activate targeted sanctions
•Showing willingness to address security issues by burying differences over MONUC’s needs and capacities and reaching a compromise on an increase in troops (albeit at a much lower level than recommended by the Secretary-General)
•Authorising the mission specifically to address the cross-border and regional dimensions with neighbouring countries in the hope that tensions can be managed and reduced in the lead-up to the Great Lakes Summit in December

The Council will be under pressure from NGOs-and, to some extent, from the African Union as well-to authorise additional forces for MONUC. Given US scepticism, this option is unlikely to be reconsidered, unless the mission returns with compelling recommendations in that regard.

The tightening of sanctions is also a possibility, but unlikely in November given that the report of the Group of Experts is due at the end of the month. Further consideration in December is more likely. A resolution or presidential statement picking up recommendations from the mission visit is a possible option.

Sign up for SCR emails
UN Documents

 Security Council Resolutions
S/Res/1621 (06 September 2005) expanded MONUC and authorised its support for Independent Electoral Commission.
S/Res/1616 (29 July 2005) extended sanctions until 31 July 2006 and renewed the mandate of the Group of Experts until 31 January 2006.
S/Res/1596 (03 May 2005) expanded the arms embargo and added travel bans and assets freeze to the sanctions regime.
S/Res/1565 (01 October 2004) further expanded MONUC to monitor the implementation of the arms embargo.
S/Res/1533 (12 March 2004) established the sanctions committee and the Group of Experts.
S/Res/1493 (28 July 2003) imposed an arms embargo.
S/Res/1445 (04 December 2002) welcomed the signing of peace agreements with DRC’s neighbours and further expanded MONUC.
S/Res/1291 (24 February 2000) added Chapter VII protective powers to MONUC’s mandate.
S/Res/1279 (30 November 1999) established MONUC.
Presidential Statements
S/PRST/2005/46 (4 October 2005)
Secretary-General’s Reports / Letters
S/2005/603 (26 September 2005) is the latest report.
S/2005/320 and Add.1 (26  May 2005) special report on DRC elections
Other: Reports of the Group of Experts
S/2005/436 (26 July 2005)
S/2005/30 (25 January 2005)
S/2004/551 (15 July 2004)

Historical Background

 16 September 2005

The Tripartite Plus One Commission adopted a statement on the 30 September deadline for foreign troops to leave the DRC.

 20 June 2005 Voter registration began.
 May 2005

The Council expanded the arms embargo to include any recipient within the entire country’s territory, and imposed a travel ban and assets freeze.

 March 2004 The Council established a Sanctions Committee and a Group of Experts.
 July 2003

The Council imposed an arms embargo on armed groups in the Kivus and Ituri or those not party to the Global and All-Inclusive Agreement.

 April 2003 The final act of inter-Congolese political negotiation was signed.
 December 2002 The parties to the Inter-Congolese Dialogue signed a Global and All-Inclusive Agreement.
 September 2002 The DRC and Uganda signed the Luanda agreement on troop withdrawals.
 July 2002 The DRC and Rwanda signed the Pretoria agreement on troop withdrawals.
 December 1999 The Council established MONUC. 
 July 1999

The DRC, Angola, Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda and Zimbabwe signed the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement.

Other Relevant Facts

 Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Chief of Mission
 William Lacy Swing (US)
 Size and Composition of Mission
 Authorized maximum strength at the time of writing: 16,700 military personnel

Current strength (21 September 2005): 16,145 total uniformed personnel, including 15,417 troops, 544 military observers, 368 civilian police.

Contributors of military personnel: Algeria, Bangladesh, Belgium, Benin, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, France, Ghana, Guatemala, Guinea, India, Indonesia, Jordan, Kenya, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Senegal, Serbia and Montenegro, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Tunisia, Ukraine, United Kingdom,Uruguay and Zambia.

 Fatalities: 60
 Approved budget of US $383.18 million for 01 July 2005 – 31 October 2005 (A/RES/59/285 B)
 30 November 1999 to the current authorisation of 31 October 2005 (S/Res/1628 (2005))

Source: DPKO

Full forecast

Subscribe to receive SCR publications