November 2005 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 October 2005
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EUROPE

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Expected Council Action

Reauthorisation of the European Union Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina (EUFOR) is expected before 01 December, when its mandate expires. The Council is also likely to encourage ongoing efforts for police reform. It may also address the need to arrest those indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) who still remain at large.

Key Facts
EUFOR is the successor to NATO-led multinational forces that had been providing since late 1995 a secure environment for the implementation of the Dayton Accords. That agreement also established the post of the High Representative to oversee the civilian aspects of Dayton. Since late 1995, the Secretary-General has provided the Council with regular reports from the High Representative, whose next report is expected in November.  Bosnia remains stable and, at this point, a rollover of the current authorisation seems widely accepted.

Key Issues
At issue is whether the Council should press Bosnia further on police reform and address the failure in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Republika Srpska to fully cooperate with the ICTY.

The ICTY’s chief prosecutor, Carla del Ponte, in a June address to the Council explained, “as long as Radovan Karadzic, Ratko Mladic and Ante Gotovina manage to escape justice and defy the international community, the work of this Tribunal will remain unfinished.” At the same meeting, Judge Theodor Meron, president of the ICTY said, “the Security Council has played a critical role by using its power and prestige to resist impunity, to establish individual criminal responsibility for perpetrators of atrocities… The Council has the power and the responsibility to do all it can to advance those goals.”

Council Dynamics
The Council will need to balance its willingness to wrap up the work of ICTY with its desire to ensure that the most prominent war crimes indictees are brought to justice. In particular, the European members of the Council will want full cooperation with ICTY before they can engage in steps leading toward closer integration of the Balkans with the rest of Europe. They are also particularly concerned about police reform. The US has been eager to see the tribunal finalise its operations by the given deadlines. Other Council members see a tension between that objective and the continued freedom of the key perpetrators.

Options
The Council may opt for a more active approach to non-cooperation with the ICTY. In resolution 1534, the Council in March 2004 urged “the necessity of trial of persons indicted by the ICTY” and reiterated its call “on Bosnia and Herzegovina, and on the Republika Srpska within Bosnia and Herzegovina, to intensify cooperation with and render all necessary assistance to the ICTY.” To the extent this call has fallen on deaf ears, the Council may feel it is necessary to take a stronger stand.

Underlying Problems
The Security Council’s “Completion Strategies” called for the end of ICTY trial activity by the end of 2008 and all work by 2010. In June, Meron estimated that the ICTY could complete the trials of all accused in its custody at the time by 2009 and warned that the growth of the trial docket could further hinder its ability to meet even that target.

UN Documents

Security Council Resolutions
S/RES/1575 (22 November 2004) authorized EUFOR.
S/RES/1534 (26 March 2004) reaffirmed completion strategies for the ICTY and ICTR (International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda).
S/RES/1503 (28 August 2003) set completion strategies for the tribunals.
Secretary-General’s Reports / Letters
S/2005/440 (07July 2005) Second three-monthly report on EUFOR
S/2005/226 (05 April 2005) First three-monthly report on EUFOR
S/2005/156 (10 March 2005) Twenty-seventh report of the High Representative on Implementation of the Peace Agreement

Historical Background

 01 December 2005 EUFOR authorization will expire.
 02 December 2004 EUFOR was launched.
 01 January 2003

European Union Police Mission (EUPM) took over from the United Nations Mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina (UNMIBH).

 31 December 2002 UNMIBH was terminated.
 21 December 1996 The UN Stabilisation Force (SFOR) succeeded the UN Implementation Force (IFOR).
 21 December 1995 The Council established the UN International Police Task Force and the UNMIBH.
 20 December 1995 United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) withdrew, and IFOR was deployed.
 14 December 1995 Dayton Accords were signed.
 11 October 1995 Fighting in Bosnia and Herzegovina ends.
 July 1995 Srebrenica massacre took place.
 25 May 1993 The Council established the ICTY.
 1991  War broke out in the former Yugoslavia.


Full forecast

 

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