November 2005 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 October 2005
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Security Council Subsidiary Bodies

The chairmen of the Sanctions Committees on Al-Qaida/Taliban, Liberia and Somalia have recently outlined significant problems besetting the effective implementation of the sanctions measures, including evidence of significant sanctions violations by states, groups and individuals. In light of these reports, the Council has renewed the relevant sanctions measures and broadened the mandates of committees and their experts for monitoring the implementation of the sanctions. The Council has also given strong indication of its willingness to impose additional measures on sanctions violators, including secondary sanctions.

More Effective Implementation
In a series of resolutions, the Council has charged the sanctions committees and their experts to provide it with specific recommendations to make the implementation of the sanctions more effective. This includes identifying specific persons (natural and corporate), groups and states engaged in sanctions violations for further action by the Council.

In the case of Somalia, the Council asked for the names of persons and entities, inside and outside the country, responsible for providing support to the sanctions violators. The Chairman of the committee has been asked to plan a visit to Somalia to demonstrate the Council’s resolve to implement the arms embargo.

The 1267 (Al-Qaida/Taliban) Committee
The Committee is expected to move quickly to prioritise the recommendations for implementation made by its Monitoring Team and to implement those measures already agreed upon. Before the end of 2005, the chairman, accompanied by members of the committee and Monitoring Team, will visit certain states that have been deemed critical to effective implementation of the sanctions measures. Also, members of the Monitoring Team will visit a number of countries in Central Asia. Such visits are part of an ongoing process to identify those states that lack capacity to implement the sanctions measures effectively, as well as to determine and help build the level of political will of states to do so.

Capacity Issues
The Security Council has mandated the 1267 Committee, as well as other sanctions committees, to identify and assist those states that lack the capacity to implement the sanctions measures, particularly states in the regions of the sanctions targets, or those that have a direct impact on the effectiveness of the sanctions measures. In light of this, issues of improved cooperation and collaboration among the three committees dealing with terrorism in assessing and assisting states to build their counter terrorism capacity and effectiveness to implement the relevant measures are expected to be advanced on the agendas of the Al-Qaida/Taliban Committee, the 1540 (terrorism and weapons of mass destruction) Committee, and the 1373 or Counter Terrorism Committee (CTC).

The link between the CTC’s assistance facilitation efforts and the other committees dealing with counter terrorism-related capacities is being developed. There remains a gap between the identification of states’ capacity to implement sanctions measures, as required by other sanctions committees, and the committees’ ability to facilitate assistance. In this regard, as well as helping it to fulfil its counter terrorism functions, the work of the CTC also has the potential to complement and improve the work of all Security Council sanctions committees.

The measures required of states in resolution 1373, when implemented fully, will enhance significantly their legal and administrative capacities to implement sanctions measures imposed by the Security Council. The 1267 Committee, which targets terrorist suspects, currently refers to the CTC and its Counter Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED) those states identified by the Committee’s experts as lacking in capacity and needing assistance. However, most other sanctions committees, with targets related to specific conflict situations are not mandated to do so. There are obvious grounds for an increased level of cooperation and collaboration between all sanctions committees-regardless of their sanctions portfolio-and the CTC/CTED. Lack of capacity in enforcing the sanctions measures is also an indication that the states identified by them have not implemented fully the requirements of resolution 1373.

CTED Activity
In the meantime, the CTED, which is now fully staffed, both professionally and administratively, should now be in a position to carry out its dual mandate more effectively:

  • Monitoring the implementation of mandatory measures set out in resolution 1373 (2001)
  • Facilitating assistance to states lacking expertise and resources to implement the 1373 measures. (This will include acceleration of the pace of country visits as outlined in the CTC’s work programmes and the proposed future work of the CTED.)

It is expected that the CTED will conduct at least one or perhaps two country visits before the end of the year, and will step up the pace of visits in early 2006. While the CTC has demonstrated its capacity to carry out its monitoring and evaluation functions, the CTED’s effectiveness in following up on the country visits with effective facilitation of assistance will determine to what extent the broader UN membership will continue to support their work. Proven success in facilitating capacity building assistance also should serve as encouragement to states to invite CTC to conduct future country visits through its CTED.

Côte d’Ivoire
When the chairman of the 1572 (Côte d’Ivoire) Sanctions Committee met with government officials and representatives of unofficial groups during his visit in October, elections in the country had been postponed because of the high level of insecurity due in large part to violations by parties on all sides of the conflict. In light of such issues, Council members will now monitor compliance with a proposed “road map” leading to elections no later than 31 October 2006 and are likely to list any persons deemed to be obstructing the peace process as defined in the proposed “road map,” thereby triggering sanctions against them. There is also heightened concern about the level of human rights violations being reported against either side of the conflict, and incitement to hatred and violence, which may also lead to listing. At the time of the chairman’s arrival in Côte d’Ivoire, the Security Council approved resolution 1632 (2005) on 18 October, which extended the mandate of the Group of Experts to 15 December 2005 with a request that it provide a brief update of the implementation of current sanctions by 1 December. Further action by the Council imposing additional measures against parties to the conflict could depend both on the report of the Group of Experts in December and the development of the “road map”.

In general, there has been a growing willingness on the part of the sanctions committees to give greater weight to evaluating the capacity of states to implement the sanctions measures. However, some evaluation of the level of political will of states to implement the sanctions measures is still part of the matrix. It is unlikely that committees will continue to concentrate their efforts merely on the legal and administrative capacities of states to meet their obligations.

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