May 2006 Monthly Forecast

• Somalia

  The Somalia Sanctions Committee is due to receive the final report of the Monitoring Group on the arms embargo, but no new action on sanctions is expected. The current mandate of the Monitoring Group expires 12 May. The Council is expected to renew the Group's mandate for another six months. Read more

• Overview

  May will be an unusual month for the Security Council. The formal programme of work seems very light. But behind the scenes, Darfur and Iran will occupy a vast amount of time and energy. Congo has the presidency (along with... Read more

• Council Responses to Tasks Established by the 2005 World Summit

  The World Summit Outcome document (A/RES/60/1) tasks the Security Council with a number of specific follow up responsibilities. Read more

• Haiti

  René Préval is scheduled to be sworn in as Haiti's president on 14 May. The Council is likely to welcome Préval's inauguration in a presidential statement. Read more

• Timor-Leste

  The Council is expected to discuss the future of the UN political presence in Timor-Leste prior to the expiry of the mandate of the UN Office in Timor-Leste (UNOTIL) on 20 May. Read more

• Sierra Leone

  By 30 April, the Council is due to receive the first regular report of the Secretary-General on the UN Integrated Office for Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL). The Secretary-General's Executive Representative in Sierra Leone, Victor da Silva Ângelo, is expected to brief the Council in the first week of May. As reported in our April Forecast, there may be some preliminary discussion of the potential for the new Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) to assist Sierra Leone. Read more

• Iran

  Security Council members are expected to take up the Iranian issue in May after the report by the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is submitted to the Council and the IAEA Board of Governors. Following a meeting of the P5 and Germany, planned in Paris on 2 May, France and the UK are likely to introduce a draft resolution. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for May 2006. Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  The Council is expected to adopt a resolution increasing the troop level of the UN Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI). Read more

• Ethiopia and Eritrea

  Another technical rollover of the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) now seems unlikely. The Council gave the parties a "last chance" in resolution 1670, which extended UNMEE until 15 May, and a major review of the size and mandate of UNMEE now seems inevitable. Read more

• Review of Security Council Mandates

  As noted in discussions of Council subsidiary organs in prior issues of our Monthly Forecasts, the Secretariat is stretched in its capacity to service the sanctions committees and the expert teams assigned to a number of these committees. The indications from the Secretary-General's report seem to be that these problems are equally pronounced when other mandates are considered. Read more

• Aide Memoire

  Important matters awaited include: Procedures for listing individuals for targeted sanctions remain to be addressed following the request from the World Summit in September 2005 for “fair and clear procedures”.  A report from the UN’s Office of Legal Affairs is awaited. On... Read more

• Council Responses to Tasks Established by the 2005 World Summit

  The World Summit Outcome document (A/RES/60/1) tasks the Security Council with a number of specific follow up responsibilities. Read more

• Sudan/Darfur

  In May, the Council is expected to increase the level of attention to Darfur by:working on the options for the transition from an AU to a UN led force; preparing for a Council visiting mission to Sudan, Addis Ababa and possibly Abuja expected for 5 -11 June; considering the expansion of the list of individuals for targeted sanctions (see the 19th April report of the Panel of Experts); continuing to press for progress in Chad and Abuja; and paying close attention to the situation facing Chad. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for April 2006. Read more

• Sierra Leone

  The Council will receive the first regular report of the Secretary-General on the UN Integrated Office in Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL). It is possible that the Executive Representative of the Secretary-General Victor da Silva Ângelo will brief the Council. Read more