May 2016 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 April 2016
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
EUROPE

Kosovo

Expected Council Action

In May, the Council is expected to hold its quarterly briefing on Kosovo. Zahir Tanin, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), will brief on recent developments and the latest Secretary-General’s report. Serbia is likely to participate at a high level, while Kosovo will probably be represented by its ambassador to the US.

Key Recent Developments

The political situation in Kosovo has remained tense for the past six months. The opposition parties have continued the practice of setting off smoke bombs in the Assembly of Kosovo, the legislative body, with an aim of obstructing its normal functioning. Disorder has spread outside the Assembly on several occasions when supporters of the opposition staged a number of demonstrations, some of which resulted in violence and clashes with Kosovo police. The main point of contention between the government and the opposition continues to be the 25 August 2015 agreement between Belgrade and Pristina, which, among other things, mandates the establishment of the Association/Community of Serb Municipalities (ASM/CSM) in northern Kosovo, which the opposition fears could eventually pose a risk of secession.

The establishment of the ASM/CSM has yet to be realised because of diverging interpretations of the agreement. Serbia has insisted that the ASM/CSM should have wide executive powers, something that the Kosovo side believes contradicts Kosovo law because it would entail the creation of another tier of government.

On 26 February, the Assembly met to select a new president of Kosovo to replace Atifete Jahjaga, whose term was expiring on 6 April. Hasim Thaçi, the former prime minister and current foreign minister, won after three rounds of voting. During the first two rounds, Thaçi failed to secure a two-thirds majority of the Assembly votes, but he won in third round, which only required him to get a simple majority in the 120-seat legislature. The opposition managed to delay the vote by setting off tear gas in the chamber once again.

Thaçi’s nomination for the presidency was the result of a coalition agreement signed between his Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and Prime Minister Isa Mustafa’s Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) following the elections in 2014. Under the agreement, the LDK got the post of prime minister while the PDK would hold the presidency after the end of Jahjaga’s term. During a special session of the Assembly on 7 April, Thaçi was officially sworn in as Kosovo’s president. The following day, a number of high-level dignitaries from the region attended the inauguration ceremony, which was briefly interrupted when the opposition set off a smoke bomb during the ceremony.

On 29 February, while still in office, President Jahjaga ratified an agreement with the Netherlands that had been signed on 15 December 2015 regarding the organisation of the Special Court of Kosovo. The Court will investigate cases of alleged war crimes committed by the Kosovo Liberation Army during the Kosovo war and its aftermath. Based in The Hague, the Court will be staffed by international judges and will operate under Kosovo law. After the signing of the agreement, Jahjaga said that Kosovo had “fulfilled all of its international obligations related to the establishment of the Court”.

Kosovo Serbs participated in Serbian parliamentary elections on 24 April. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) facilitated the process because Kosovo authorities do not allow the Serbian Electoral Commission to operate in Kosovo. Essentially, the OSCE organised the collection of ballots and their subsequent transfer to the Serbian authorities for the count. This was the third time the OSCE assisted in the voting by Kosovo Serbs in Serbian parliamentary elections. It did so previously in 2012 and 2014 using the same model.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 15 April, the special rapporteurs on minority issues and the human rights of internally displaced persons, Rita Izsák-Ndiaye and Chaloka Beyani, released a statement that called on the UN to implement a 26 February opinion of the Human Rights Advisory Panel made public the previous week. The opinion found UNMIK responsible for compromising irreversibly the life, health and development potential of certain families exposed to lead poisoning in camps for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Kosovo. The complaint was brought in 2008 by 138 members of the Roma, Ashkali and Egyptian communities in Kosovo who were initially placed in three IDP camps after the Roma Mahala neighbourhood in South Mitrovica had been destroyed in 1999.

The panel’s opinion noted that UNMIK had commissioned a report in 2000, which found extremely elevated blood lead levels of the affected community members living in the IDP camps, but did not make the report public and failed to take sufficient action to address the risks of lead exposure in the camps. The panel recommended that UNMIK publicly acknowledge, including through the media, its failure to comply with applicable human rights standards in response to the adverse health condition caused by lead contamination in the IDP camps and the consequent harm suffered by the complainants; make a public apology to them and their families; and take appropriate steps towards payment of adequate compensation to the complainants for material and moral damage.

Key Issues

Maintaining stability and security in Kosovo remains the main issue for the Council, especially in light of the heightened political tensions in the country.

UNMIK’s role in promoting the implementation of the existing agreements between Belgrade and Pristina is a related issue.

Following the ratification of the agreements on the establishment and organisation of the Special Court of Kosovo, an issue for the Council will be to follow closely the cooperation of Kosovo authorities with the Court.

Options

Should the ongoing political impasse continue to disrupt the normal functioning of the Kosovo government and its institutions or pose a threat to stability, the Council could consider issuing a statement censuring the disruptions and urging political actors to engage in dialogue with an aim to resolving outstanding issues.

Considering the lack of implementation of a number of agreements between Belgrade and Pristina, the Council could explore the ways in which UNMIK could facilitate the implementation process.

Looking ahead, the Council could consider modifying UNMIK’s mandate and reducing its presence pending the implementation of the agreements between Belgrade and Pristina.

Council Dynamics

For years now, Kosovo has been an issue of low intensity for the Council, mainly because of the leading role of regional organisations, such as the EU, NATO and the OSCE. In addition, most Western members of the Council share the view that Kosovo does not require serious scrutiny by the Council because of the progress already made.

The unchanged Council dynamics on Kosovo result from an entrenched division among the permanent members. France, the UK and the US (the P3) recognise Kosovo’s independence and its legitimacy under international law, while China and Russia maintain strong support for Serbia’s position vis-à-vis Kosovo. Prior to the current wave of political difficulties in Kosovo, there had been some discussion by the P3 and other Western Council members about possibly lengthening the reporting cycle on Kosovo. Russia has objected strongly to an attempt by the Council to alter the reporting cycle or modify UNMIK’s mandate. Russia’s position has been reinforced by the recent political instability in Kosovo.

Sign up for SCR emails
UN Documents 

Security Council Resolution
10 June 1999 S/RES/1244 This resolution authorised NATO to secure and enforce the withdrawal of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia forces from Kosovo and established UNMIK.
Security Council Meeting Record
29 February 2016 S/PV.7637 Special Representative Zahir Tanin briefed the Council on Kosovo and the most recent UNMIK report (S/2016/99).

Subscribe to receive SCR publications