May 2016 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 April 2016
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  • Overview

    Egypt holds the presidency of the Council for May. Read more

  • Status Update

    Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in April 2016. Read more

  • Notable Dates

    Notable Dates for May Read more

  • In Hindsight: Better Negotiations for Clearer Mandates

    Mandating and overseeing peace operations, whether multidimensional peacekeeping operations with a military component or smaller political field missions, consume the largest proportion of the Council’s time and energy. Read more

  • UN-AU Cooperation on Peace and Security

    In May, the Council will hold an open debate on cooperation between the UN and the AU on peace and security: Chapter VIII application and the future of the African peace and security architecture. The AU Commissioner for Peace and Security, Smail Chergui, the newly-appointed Chair of the Peacebuilding Commission Ambassador Macharia Kamau (Kenya) and a high-level UN official are expected to brief the Council.Also in May, Council members are expected to hold in New York their annual meeting with the members of the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC). Read more

  • Protection of Civilians

    In early May, the Security Council will hold a briefing on attacks on medical facilities and personnel in armed conflict as a part of its protection of civilians agenda. During the meeting, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution condemning attacks on health care workers and facilities and demanding compliance with international humanitarian law with regard to this issue.  While yet to be confirmed at press time, it appeared that briefers would include high-level representatives from the UN, the ICRC and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF). Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    In May, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Román Oyarzun (Spain), is due to brief Council members in consultations on the Committee’s work. Read more

  • Sudan (Darfur)

    In May, Ambassador Rafael Ramírez (Venezuela), the chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing to Council members on the Committee’s work. At press time, no outcome was anticipated. Read more

  • Syria

    Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura is expected to brief in early May on the intra-Syrian proximity talks in Geneva and the challenges to the cessation of hostilities in light of the resumption of intensified fighting, particularly in northern Syria. Council members will receive their regular monthly briefings on the humanitarian and chemical weapons tracks.  Read more

  • Iraq

    In May, Special Representative Ján Kubiš will brief on developments in Iraq and the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). UNAMI’s mandate expires on 31 July. Read more

  • Sudan and South Sudan

    The quarterly consultations on Sudan/South Sudan issues will be held in May. The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of UNISFA prior to the expiration of its mandate on 15 May. Read more

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina

    In May, the Council will hold its biannual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The High Representative for BiH, Valentin Inzko, will brief the Council, presenting the latest report of the Office of the High Representative (OHR), expected in early May. Read more

  • Lebanon

    In May, Council members expect to receive the semi-annual briefing from Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 urged the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. Read more

  • Kosovo

    In May, the Council is expected to hold its quarterly briefing on Kosovo. Zahir Tanin, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), will brief on recent developments and the latest Secretary-General’s report. Serbia is likely to participate at a high level, while Kosovo will probably be represented by its ambassador to the US.  Read more

  • Liberia

    In May, the Council expects a briefing by Ambassador Volodymyr Yelchenko (Ukraine), chair of the 1521 Liberia Sanctions Committee, on the final report of the Panel of Experts and other sanctions-related matters, followed by consultations.  Read more

  • Somalia

    In May, the Council is scheduled to receive a briefing from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), Michael Keating, on the forthcoming Secretary-General’s report. The Council is also expected to renew the authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which expires on 31 May, and could elect to review the mandate of the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS). Read more

  • Libya

    In May, ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda will deliver her semi-annual briefing on recent developments concerning cases in Libya. Read more

  • South Sudan

    In May, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the 2206 South Sudan sanctions regime, which expires on 1 June. Read more

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