February 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 January 2010
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Expected Council Action
In February, the Council is expected to review a report from the Secretary-General on Darfur. Discussions will likely focus on the strategic elements laid out in July 2009 in resolution 1881 and in particular on efforts to accelerate the Darfur peace process, taking into account the briefing to the Council on 21 December 2009 on the recommendations of the AU High-Level Panel on Darfur.

The mandate of UNAMID expires on 31 July.

Key Recent Developments
On 25 January, Ibrahim Gambari, the new AU-UN Joint Special Representative arrived in El Fasher, the headquarters of the AU-UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID). Gambari stated that top priority for UNAMID is consolidating the peace process in Darfur.

On 29 December 2009 UNAMID and the Sudanese government signed a framework to increase the safety of UNAMID personnel and assets following recent attacks. Separate attacks by unidentified militias on 4 and 5 December led to the killing of five Rwandan peacekeepers.

On 7 December 2009, the Council urged the Sudan government to ensure that all perpetrators are brought to justice and called on all parties to cooperate fully with UNAMID. The Secretary-General’s 16 November 2009 report had warned that until all parties provide unconditional security, challenges will continue for UNAMID.

On 21 December 2009, former South African President Thabo Mbeki and AU Commission Chairperson Jean Ping briefed the Council on the recommendations of the AU High-Level Panel on Darfur. Mbeki stated that peace, reconciliation and justice in Darfur are linked to any comprehensive peace agreement.

On 16 November 2009 the Secretary-General’s report highlighted three critical tracks towards a political settlement:

  • continuing dialogue between the government and armed groups to agree on sustainable security arrangements;
  • addressing the concerns and priorities of representatives of Darfurian civil societies for inclusion in a political settlement; and
  • supporting Chad-Sudan reconciliation efforts.

In a letter dated 14 December 2009, the Secretary-General advised the Council that four experts had been appointed to the Sudan sanctions Panel of Experts until 15 October 2010. On 12 October 2009, the experts briefed the Council on their plans in the coming year.

Clashes between the Sudanese army and Sudan Liberation Army/Abdul Wahid Faction (SLA/AW) continued in January in North Darfur, with some 18 civilians killed. On 14 January UNAMID appealed to the parties to allow them to conduct an investigation and assess the needs of the population affected by recent clashes.

On 30 November 2009 the Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Edmund Mulet, briefed the Council on the unstable security situation and the obstacles faced by UNAMID. The Joint AU-UN Chief Mediator for Darfur, Djibril Bassolé, briefed the Council that lack of confidence between the parties impacted progress in the peace talks. Mediation efforts had been focused on building consensus among civil society groups, organising negotiations between the movements and the government and assisting Chad and Sudan to improve relations.

In July 2009, in resolution 1881, the Council asked the Secretary-General to submit a strategic workplan containing benchmarks for the implementation of UNAMID’s mandate and report on progress against these benchmarks, including the political process, on the humanitarian and security situation and on compliance by all parties with their international obligations.

Key Issues
The first issue is whether there is anything the Council can do to assist the peace process. A related issue is the implementation of the AU High-level Implementation Panel recommendations, including on power-sharing, wealth-sharing, security and compensation. Another related issue is whether the efforts of mediators alone are sufficient to bring all parties together for a settlement, and whether the Council can be more effective in supporting the mediation efforts.

A second key issue, also a strategic priority in resolution 1881, is reducing the continuing violence in Darfur which limits the freedom of movement of UNAMID and the access of humanitarian personnel as they respond to the needs of populations impacted by the evolving security environment. A related question is whether the 29 December 2009 framework agreement is having any positive impact.

A third key issue highlighted in resolution 1881 is ensuring the rule of law, strengthened governance and human rights protection. A question for the Council is what it should do to respond to the apparent lack of progress in these areas.

Another further key issue is political settlement in Darfur, which would allow the people of Darfur to participate in the approaching elections.


Options include:

  • renewing the Council’s demands for the government and rebel movements to fully commit to the peace process;
  • emphasising credible participation by Darfurians in the elections as a way to build confidence for a political settlement;
  • noting the role of the report of the AU High-Level Implementation Panel and its complimentarity with Council objectives for Darfur and the importance of forging a closer partnership between the UN and AU in strengthening and supporting the mediation; and
  • deciding to invite members of the Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council to form a joint “contact group” to provide direct member state support for the mediation.

Council Dynamics
As elections approach, many Council members are increasingly anxious about the north-south Sudan issue and the likely impact for Darfur.

Council members seem agreed on the peace process as the key to achieving a sustainable solution for Darfur. However, most members also emphasise that the security and governance issues also need to be addressed in this process.

Most members are encouraged by Mbeki’s briefing on the report of the AU High-Level Implementation Panel. They seem comfortable with many of the recommendations which address peace, justice, accountability and reconciliation in Darfur. 

The UK is the lead country on Darfur in the Council.

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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

Selected Presidential Statement

  • S/PRST/2009/13 (8 May 2009) called on Chad and Sudan to respect and fully implement their mutual commitments.

Latest Secretary-General’s Reports

  • S/2009/592 (16 November 2009) was on UNAMID.
  • S/2009/562 (27 October 2009) was a report of the Sanctions Panel of Experts.
  • S/2009/391 (28 July 2009) was on possible UN support for the upcoming elections in Sudan.
  • S/2009/352 (13 July 2009) was on UNAMID.
  • S/2009/297 (9 June 2009) was on UNAMID.

Selected Security Council Meeting Records

  • S/PV.6251 (21 December 2009) was the briefing by former South African President Thabo Mbeki and AU Commission Chair Jean Ping on the recommendations of the AU High-Level Panel on Darfur.
  • S/PV.6227 (30 November 2009) was the briefing by Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Edmond Mulet to the Council regarding the Secretary-General’s report in November on UNAMID.
  • S/PV.6170 (24 July 2009) was the briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy to the Council regarding the Secretary-General’s reports in July on UNMIS and UNAMID.
  • S/PV.6139 (11 June 2009) was the briefing of Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator John Holmes to the Council.
  • S/PV.6135(5 June 2009) was the briefing of ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo to the Council.
  • S/PV.6131 (28 May 2009) was the briefing on the Council Mission to Africa from 14 to 21 May 2009.
  • S/PV.6112 (27 April 2009) was the latest open UNAMID briefing.

Selected Letters

  • S/2009/639 (14 December 2009) was from the Secretary-General informing the Council about the appointment of people to serve on the Panel of Experts.
  • S/2009/599 (17 November 2009) transmitted the report of the AU High-Level Panel on Darfur.
  • S/2009/369 (16 July 2009) was from Sudan informing the Council of Chadian bombing incidents in Darfur.
  • S/2009/255 (16 May 2009) was from Sudan detailing complaints against Chad.
  • S/2009/249 (12 May 2009) contained the 3 May 2009 Doha agreement between Chad and Sudan.
  • S/2009/144 (6 March 2009) was the AU Peace and Security Council communiqué on the ICC arrest warrant for President Bashir.
  • S/2009/100 (18 February 2009) transmitted the text of the Agreement of Goodwill and Confidence-Building for the Settlement of the Problem in Darfur.


  • SC/9805 (7 December 2009) was the press statement condemning attacks on UNAMID peacekeepers.
  • S/2009/562 (27 October 2009) was a report of the Sanctions Panel of Experts.
  • AU/Dec.245(XIII) (3 July 2009) was the decision of the AU Assembly about non-cooperation with the ICC.
  • A/HRC/11/L.17 (16 June 2009) was a resolution from the Human Rights Council establishing the mandate for the Independent Expert on human rights in the Sudan.
  • A/HRC/11/14 (June 2009) was the report of the Special Rapporteur for Sudan to the Human Rights Council.

Other Relevant Facts

UNAMID: Joint AU-UN Special Representative for Darfur

Ibrahim Gambari (Nigeria)

Joint AU-UN Chief Mediator

Djibril Yipènè Bassolé (Burkina Faso)

UNAMID: Force Commander

Lieutenant General Patrick Nyamvumba (Rwanda)

UNAMID: Size, Composition and Cost

  • Maximum authorised strength: up to 19,555 military personnel, 3,772 police and 19 formed police units (total police 6,432)
  • Main troop contributors: Nigeria, Rwanda, Egypt and Ethiopia
  • Military Strength as of 31 December 2009: 15,374 military personnel
  • Police Strength as of 31 December 2009: 4,575 police personnel
  • Cost: 1 July 2009 – 30 June 2010: $1,598.94 million

UNAMID: Duration

31 July 2007 to present; mandate expires 31 July 2010

UNMIS: Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission

Ashraf Jehangir Qazi (Pakistan)

UNMIS: Force Commander

Major-General Paban Jung Thapa (Nepal)

UNMIS: Size, Composition and Cost

  • Maximum authorised strength: up to 10,000 military and 715 police personnel
  • Main troop contributors: India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
  • Military Strength as of 31 December 2009: 9,569 military personnel
  • Police Strength as of 31 December 2009: 693 police personnel
  • Cost: 1 July 2009 – 30 June 2010: $958.35 million

UNMIS: Duration

24 March 2005 to present; mandate expires 30 April 2010

Sanctions Committee Chairman

Thomas Mayr-Harting (Austria)

Full forecast

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