February 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 January 2010
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Expected Council Action
The Council is scheduled to receive a briefing on Iraq in February. Some discussion of the expected report from the Secretary-General is likely. However no action is expected. (UNAMI’s mandate expires on 6 August.)

Key Recent Developments
On 23 January US Vice President Joe Biden met with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and discussed a recent decision by Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) which banned many Iraqi Sunni leaders from running in the upcoming national elections on 7 March. On 21 January, the Iraqi Presidency Council requested a court ruling on the legality of the decision.

On 19 January Maliki said that Sunni Muslims were not being targeted. (On 14 January the IHEC had upheld a decision to prohibit more than 500 individuals from running in national elections on 7 March because of their past links to the Ba’ath party of Saddam Hussein.) The IHEC subsequently stated that a roughly equal number of Shi’a and Sunni were included in the ban. Critics contended that officials appointed by Maliki largely control the IHEC and argued they were trying to bolster his position in the elections.

On 18 January the Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Iraq, Christine McNab, spoke in New York at a conference on the International Compact with Iraq. McNab stated that the Compact had accomplished much but Iraq was now ready to transition to a longer-term development agenda. The outgoing Special Advisor to the Secretary-General on the Compact, Ibrahim Gambari, also spoke.

On 14 January an Iraqi court sentenced 11 Iraqis to death for the coordinated bombings that took place in Iraq on 19 August 2009.

On 21 December 2009 the Council adopted resolution 1905, extending the arrangements for the Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) and the DFI auditing entity, the International Advisory and Monitoring Board (IAMB), until 31 December 2010. The resolution calls on Iraq to establish an action plan and timeline for transitioning to a post-DFI mechanism by 1 April, and thereafter for Iraq to report to the Council quarterly through the Committee of Financial Experts on progress made.

On 8 December 2009 coordinated vehicle bombings in Baghdad killed 112 people. The Council issued a press statement condemning the bombings the same day. Maliki said that the attack involved foreign support, and subsequently dismissed the commander overseeing security in the capital. The attack followed two other large-scale coordinated bombings on 19 August and 25 October 2009.

On 8 December 2009 the Iraqi Presidency Council set 7 March as the date for national elections after amendments to the election law were finalised on 6 December 2009.

Human Rights-Related Developments

In its latest report published in December 2009 (covering 1 January to 30 June 2009), the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) placed special emphasis on the areas of rule of law, the reimplementation of the death penalty, the situation in prisons and detention centres, and allegations of torture. Concerns included increased violence directed at persons based on their perceived sexual orientation and continued violence against women, especially honour-related homicides in the region of Kurdistan where many crimes went unpunished. During the reporting period 31 death row inmates were executed, including one woman. Noting that UNAMI has continuously stated that security in Iraq may not be sustainable unless significant steps are taken to uphold the rule of law and human rights, the report stressed that “significant progress remains to be achieved to fully restore the rule of law and to systematically address the issue of impunity”.

Key Issues
The legitimacy of the national elections on 7 March is an issue in light of the IHEC action. Members will want to see elections that are legitimate and credible so as to maintain international acceptance and support.

The issue of historical resolutions adopted during the regime of Saddam Hussein remains a problem but is unlikely to be addressed in February.

Underlying Problems
An underlying problem is the still fragile cohesion of the Iraqi state, despite some progress made in recent years. The perception of some political actors that they are not equal partners in governance, and continuing violence, are related challenges. Fragile commitment to rule of law reinforces these problems.

Options include:

  • members using the February meeting to set out their concerns and objectives in the lead up to national elections through their individual statements;
  • the Council collectively recognising the need for safe, credible and successful elections, and agreeing on the value of emphasising this (and the significance for the UN because of UNAMI’s role) through a presidential or press statement; and
  • refraining from any formal discussion until after the national elections on 7 March.

Council and Wider Dynamics
There is concern among many Council members that the disqualification of so many people from running in national elections may precipitate a new political crisis. (Members are very conscious of what happened in the Afghanistan elections in 2009 and the taint that affected not only the process of governance but also the UN itself.)

Members are not pushing for resolving the historical Council resolutions on Iraq at this stage. Many feel that advancement of this issue is unlikely until after the elections.

Some members now seem to believe that progress on the contentious Iraq/Kuwait issues may be necessary as an integral part of this process to facilitate the lifting of resolutions and that increased efforts are therefore necessary on Kuwait-related issues.


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UN Documents

Selected Security Council Resolutions

  • S/RES/1905 (21 December 2009) extended the arrangements for the DFI and the IAMB until 31 December 2010.
  • S/RES/1883 (7 August 2009) extended the UNAMI mandate for another 12 months.
  • S/RES/1859 (22 December 2008) requested the Secretary-General to report on all Council resolutions concerning Iraq since 1990; a letter from Iraq requesting the lifting of Saddam-era resolutions is included as an annex to the resolution.
  • S/RES/1483 (22 May 2003) established sanctions against the previous Iraqi government, created the DFI, provided immunity to Iraqi petroleum products and envisaged the termination of the oil-for-food programme.

Selected Presidential Statement

  • S/PRST/2009/30 (16 November 2009) reaffirmed support for UNAMI, welcomed the 8 November Iraqi agreement on amendments to the electoral law (the amendments were later vetoed by Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi), and encouraged the possibility of the Secretary-General facilitating technical assistance to Iraq through the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED).

Selected Press Statements

  • SC/9810 (9 December 2009) condemned the 8 December coordinated bombings in Baghdad.
  • SC/9775 (26 October 2009) condemned the 25 October coordinated bombings in Baghdad.
  • SC/9772 (22 October 2009) noted the Council agreed to extend the financing of the mandate of the High-Level Coordinator for Iraq/Kuwait missing persons and property for eight months.
  • SC/9733 (19 August 2009) condemned the 19 August coordinated bombings in Baghdad.

Selected Secretary-General’s Reports

  • S/2009/585 (11 November 2009) was the latest UNAMI report.
  • S/2009/539 (16 October 2009) was the latest report on Iraq/Kuwait missing persons and property.
  • S/2009/430 (24 August 2009) was the latest DFI/IAMB report.
  • S/2009/385 (27 July 2009) was on the review of Iraq resolutions.

Other Relevant Facts

Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Iraq

Ad Melkert (Netherlands)

Useful Additional Sources

Full forecast

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