February 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 January 2010
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues in the Council during January included:

Afghanistan: The Council was briefed by the Secretary-General and his Special Representative for Afghanistan, Kai Eide, on 6 January (S/PV.6255). The Secretary-General told the Council that Afghanistan was at a critical juncture. He also said that better coordination based on strong political willingness of the international community and strong local effort was needed. Eide said he was worried about negative trends in Afghanistan and outlined a political strategy that prioritised a systematic approach to civilian institution-building.

West Africa: On 12 January the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Office for West Africa (UNOWA) briefed (S/PV.6256) the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2009/682) on the situation in West Africa and the activities of UNOWA.

Cooperation Between the UN and Regional Organisations: On 13 January the Council held a debate on cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations in maintaining international peace and security (S/PV.6257). Representatives of the AU, Association of Southeast Asian Nations; Collective Security Treaty Organisation, EU, League of Arab States, NATO, Organization of American States; Organisation of the Islamic Conference; Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe; Pacific Islands Forum; and Shanghai Co-operation Organisation participated. The Secretary-General, who the day before held a retreat with heads of international organisations, addressed the Council as well. At the end of the debate the Council issued a presidential statement (S/PRST/2010/1) promising further action to promote better operational cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations. Conflict early warning, prevention, peacemaking, peacekeeping and peacebuilding were highlighted. The Council commended the Secretariat’s efforts to consolidate partnerships including the Secretary-General’s retreat and encouraged the Secretariat and regional and subregional organisations to develop information-sharing and to continue to compile best practices, in particular in the field of mediation, good offices and peacekeeping.

Central Asia: On 14 January Council members met in informal consultations to hear a briefing on the activities of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia by the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Central Asia and head of the Centre, Miroslav Jenča. Following the meeting, the Council issued a press statement (SC/9843) encouraging further cooperation between the Centre and governments in the region and expressing continued support for its work.

Somalia: On 14 January the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia, Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, briefed (S/PV.6259) the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest report on Somalia (S/2009/684). Ould-Abdallah called for a strengthening of international support to the Somali government and enhanced cooperation with regional and subregional organisations. He also said the Council should “address vigorously the role of spoilers”. Somali Ambassador to the UN Elmi Ahmed Duale, Permanent Observer for the League of Arab States to the UN Yahya Mahmassani and the Commissioner for Peace and Security of the AU, Ramtane Lamamra, also spoke. In informal consultations following the briefing Council members expressed continued support for the government and the current UN strategy. At press time the Council was expected to adopt a resolution on 28 January renewing the authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia until 31 January 2011.

Nepal: On 15 January the Council was briefed (S/PV.6260) by the Representative of the Secretary-General, Karin Landgren, who also introduced the Secretary-General’s report (S/2010/17). In her briefing Landgren said that although the fragility of the peace process remained real, parties had in the past month shown a “renewed urgency” on core issues. She stressed the importance of following up these developments and resolving the main tasks in the peace process. Nepal’s Permanent Representative Gyan Chandra Acharya provided information on what the government hoped to do in the next few months. Following the briefing Council members held informal consultations. On 21 January the Council adopted resolution 1909 renewing UNMIN until 15 May 2010. The resolution also called for UNMIN to make the “necessary arrangements…for its withdrawal, including handing over any residual monitoring responsibilities by 15 May 2010”.

Haiti: On 19 January the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1908, increasing the force levels of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) in order to support increased requirements in the aftermath of the 12 January earthquake. One thousand and five hundred additional police and 2,000 additional military personnel were authorised. The Council had issued a press statement (SC/9846) on 18 January expressing deep sympathy to the people of Haiti, and condolences to the families of all members of MINUSTAH who lost their lives in the earthquake, including Special Representative of the Secretary-General Hedi Annabi, Principal Deputy Special Representative Luiz Carlos da Costa and Acting UN Police Commissioner in Haiti Doug Coates.

Côte d’Ivoire: On 21 January the head of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), Choi Young-Jin, briefed (S/PV.6263) the Council on the latest report of the Secretary-General (S/2010/15) and on progress towards achieving key benchmarks of the Ouagadougou Agreement and its additional protocols. On 28 January the Council extended the mandate of UNOCI until 31 May 2010.

Kosovo: On 22 January the Council held a debate on Kosovo (S/PV.6264). The Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of UNMIK Lamberto Zannier gave a briefing on the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2010/5) on the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo. In addition to Council members, Serbian President Boris Tadić and the Foreign Minister of Kosovo Skënder Hyseni spoke at the meeting.

Women, Peace and Security: The Council had been expecting in January advice from the Secretary-General regarding his proposals for monitoring and reporting within the existing UN system on the protection of women and children from rape and other sexual violence in armed conflict and post-conflict situations, as requested by resolution 1888. Also expected was the appointment of his Special Representative to lead the strengthening of existing UN coordination mechanisms and advocate on the prevention of sexual violence in armed conflict. It seems that some delays have been caused by the urgent demands on a number of senior Secretariat officials in the aftermath of the earthquake in Haiti.
Full forecast