June 2007 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 May 2007
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Aide Memoire

Important matters pending before the Council include:

  • The draft resolution on small arms circulated by Argentina in March 2006 seems to have lapsed. South Africa circulated a draft presidential statement in March 2007. After disappearing in January and February, the issue has been reinstated as a footnote on the Council’s calendar since March, but it has not yet been taken up.  The absence of a Council decision on this matter leaves future periodic Secretary-General’s reports in abeyance.
  • Implementation of the phased approach for Darfur as agreed in Abuja in November 2006 is lagging. A more detailed AU-UN agreement on the hybrid operation as endorsed by the Council on 19 December had just been finalised at press time.
  • Action, as envisaged in resolution 1706 in Darfur, has not been taken to impose “strong effective measures, such as assets freeze or travel ban, against any individual or group that violates or attempts to block the implementation of the [Darfur Peace] Agreement or commits human rights violations.”  A number of proposals are being considered but divisions remain.
  • Action on the Secretary-General’s recommendations for a peacekeeping force in Chad and the Central African Republic is still awaited, because of Chad’s hesitation about both the proposed robust military component and a credible political reconciliation process. Consultations between Chad and the Secretariat are underway.
  • On the DRC, the Council is still to consider imposing individual sanctions under resolution 1698 against armed groups that recruit children.
  • On West Africa, the Council held consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on cross-border issues on 16 March but no follow-up has been considered, which may put future reports in that regard in abeyance.
  • The Council is waiting for the Secretary-General’s recommendations on the status of the Sheb’a Farms. In his last report on implementation of resolution 1701 (issued on 14 March), the Secretary-General mentioned good progress on the cartographic analysis of the status of the Farms, and said that the technical work would be completed by the next reporting period in mid-June.
  • The December 2004 report by the Secretary-General on human rights violations in Côte d’Ivoire, requested by a presidential statement, has still not been made public. Also on Côte d’Ivoire, the December 2005 report by the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide has not been published.
  • The 2005 World Summit requested reforms relating to the Military Staff Committee. This has yet to be addressed.
  • On Somalia, the Council is still to consider taking measures against those who seek to prevent or block a peaceful political process, threaten the Transitional Federal Institutions by force, or take action that undermines stability in Somalia or the region as set in resolution 1744.
  • The Council, through resolutions 1483 and 1546, had expressed its intention to revisit the mandate of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), and Iraq had also made that request.  A draft resolution to terminate the mandate of UNMOVIC sponsored by the US and the UK is currently being discussed among the P5.

Full forecast


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