August 2006 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 July 2006
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PEACEMAKING, PEACEKEEPING AND PEACEBUILDING

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Counter-Terrorism Committee (S/RES/1373)

Resolutions

Mandate

Resolution 1373 established obligations on all states to adopt a legal framework to prevent and suppress international terrorism;

  • establish cooperation between states;
  • implement mutual legal assistance;
  • share intelligence;
  • assist in tracing and freezing of assets related to terrorists and terrorism;
  • implement border control measures to prevent the movement of terrorists,  and access to weapons;
  • deny safe haven to terrorists; and
  • become parties to the then 12 international anti-terrorism conventions and protocols and to implement them fully.

Target(s)/Designated List

  • The measures mandated by resolution 1373, unlike sanctions, did not target individuals or specific entities.

Committees Forecast

Country Visits: The Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) is expected to conduct country visits to the Philippines, India, Pakistan and possibly Bangladesh over the course of the next few months.  Assisted by experts of relevant international and regional organisations, the purpose of these visits is to assess the level of implementation of the measures mandated in resolution 1373 by each of these countries. Determining the technical assistance needs of each country to fully implement the resolution will be on the agenda.

The Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC) will continue to evaluate and follow-up on the reports of recent assessment visits to Jordan and Malaysia.

The CTC will receive and consider a report from the Executive Director of the CTED on the results of his meetings in early July with government officials in Paraguay on the level of that country’s implementation of resolution 1373.  In the past, the CTC had expressed concern about Paraguay, and this is the second visit of a delegation from the CTC/CTED to that country.  The CTC could possibly follow-up with a referral of Paraguay to the Security Council, which would be the first such referral made on a country’s insufficient level of implementation of resolution 1373.

Resolution 1624: Pursuant to paragraph 6(c) of the resolution, the CTC is required to provide a report to the Council by 14 September 2006 on the status of states’ implementation of paragraphs 1-3 of the resolution, which, inter alia, called on all states to adopt certain measures and cooperate fully in the fight against terrorism, including measures to prevent incitement to acts of terrorism.

Annual CTED Review: The CTED is expected to begin preparing an assessment of its work to facilitate its review and evaluation by the Council at the end of 2006.  This will be considered in the context of a decision to be taken by the Council pursuant to paragraph 2 of resolution 1535 on whether the mandate of the CTED should be extended beyond 31 December 2007.  This comprehensive review, which was due at the end of 2005, was postponed because the CTED had only become operational in December 2005. 

 

 

1540 Committee (S/RES/1540)

Resolutions

Mandate

Resolution 1540 established obligations to adopt legal and administrative frameworks to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and their delivery systems, in particular for terrorist purposes.

In resolution 1673, the Council called on all states to report to the Committee and decided that the Committee should promote full implementation of the resolution by all states, including by outreach, dialogue, assistance and cooperation.

Target(s)/Designated List

  • While the measures mandated by resolution 1540, unlike sanctions, did not target individuals or specific entities, states are required to prevent non-state actors from acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

Committees Forecast

Guided by a group of experts, the Committee submitted a comprehensive report to the Council on 25 April 2006 (S/2006/257), which included a number of recommendations (in para 136) on the Committee’s future work.  The Council endorsed a number of these recommendations in resolution 1673, including expanding the Committee’s mandate, with the assistance of experts, until 27 April 2008.

 

 

Al-Qaida and Taliban (S/RES/1267)

Resolutions

Mandate

assets freeze; travel ban; arms embargo

Target(s)/Designated List

  • Usama bin Laden, the Taliban and associated individuals and entities, designated by the Committee on the Consolidated List. As of 25 April 2006, there were 354 individuals and 123 entities on the Consolidated List.

Committees Forecast

Reports:
The Monitoring Team (MT) will submit its 5th Report (due 31 July) to the Committee.  The report is expected to present new recommendations and a revision of prior recommendations based on evolving circumstances.  The recommendations will focus on strengthening the Committee’s monitoring functions; improving states’ implementation of the sanctions measures; and include ways of assisting states in improving their level of implementation of the sanctions.

Also due by the end of July, pursuant to paragraph 17 of resolution 1617 and paragraph 13 of resolution 1526, is the Committee’s written analytical assessment on the implementation of the measures, including states’ successes and challenges in implementing them, with a view to recommending further measures for the Council’s consideration.  The first report under this mandate was issued as document S/2005/761 dated 6 December 2005.

Listing: Following weeks of discussions in the Committee on the issues surrounding the listing of targeted individuals and entities, the Chairman is expected to circulate a non-paper setting out the conclusions reached so far on the listing process.  The non-paper is expected to guide the Committee in updating listing guidelines.

De-listing: The Committee is making slower progress on the de-listing process and on establishing new de-listing guidelines.  So far the Committee has relied on papers presented by its members-Denmark, France, Japan, and the United States-as primary resources to guide its discussions. The committee expects to complete discussions and issue new de-listing guidelines by the end of the summer.

Country visit: The MT will participate in the CTED’s country visit to the Philippines.

 

 

Côte d’Ivoire (S/RES/1572)

Resolutions

Mandate

arms embargo; assets freeze; travel ban; export of rough diamonds

Target(s)/Designated List

  • Designated individuals, including persons impeding the peace process, committing violations of human rights, violating the arms embargo, inciting public violence, and obstructing the activities of UNOCI. There are three individuals on the list (last updated 30 May 2006).

Committees Forecast

Report: The next report by the Group of Experts (GoE) assisting the Committee will be due by mid-August.

Action Pending:  Following the GoE report, S/2006/204 of 31 March 2006, Committee and Council action on the GoE’s observations and recommendations contained in paragraphs 53-59 of the report is awaited. These recommendations are aimed primarily at improving the effectiveness of the arms embargo. 

The sanctions are due to expire 15 December 2006; and the GoE’s mandate will expire on 27 August 2006.

 

 

Democratic Republic of Congo (S/RES/1533)

Resolutions

Mandate

arms embargo; targeted travel and financial measures

Target(s)/Designated List

  • Arms Embargo: any recipient in the DRC territory; excludes DRC army and police under certain conditions.
  • Travel Ban and Assets Freeze: as designated by the Committee-individual violators of the arms embargo; political and military leaders of foreign armed groups; and political and military leaders of Congolese militias who are receiving support from outside the DRC.  As of 14 December 2005, 15 individuals and one entity were listed.
  • Aviation Restrictions: on all aircraft entering and departing DRC territory.

Committees Forecast

Report:  At the time of writing, the Committee and the Council were expected to consider the latest GoE report (S/2006/525).

New Mandate: Also at the time of writing, partially in response to the new report of the GoE and the report of the Security Council Mission to Kinshasa on 10-12 June (S/2006/434), the Council was considering a new draft resolution, which, inter alia, would:

  • renew the sanctions measures until 31 July 2007;
  • subject to a humanitarian impact report and recommendations on the advantage of extending these measures in a regional framework to be provided by the Secretary-General, before 31 January 2007, to expand the sanctions measures to include a prohibition on the importation of certain minerals (colombo tantalite, cassiterite and gold) from the DRC, except under a new government certification regime; and
  • extend the provisions of resolution 1596 to individuals designated by the Committee as recruiting or using children in armed forces groups or otherwise abusing children in the DRC, or violating the new trade embargo when imposed.

Mandate Renewal: In addition, at press time, the Council is expected to extend the mandate of the Sanctions Committee and the GoE to 31 July 2007.

Action Pending: In the meantime, neither the Committee nor the Council had acted on recommendations contained in the GoE’s 27 January report (S/2006/53) that would allow MONUC to assist in strengthening the monitoring of the sanctions measures. Specifically, the GoE requested:

  • a re-registering and re-marking system for all firearms legally held or imported in the DRC (para 48);
  • MONUC to assist customs officials in monitoring vehicles and goods from other countries (para 72); and
  • MONUC to assume responsibility for air traffic services in the eastern part of the country on an interim basis (paras 166 and 167).

Guidance is needed from the Department of Peacekeeping Operations on the feasibility of these recommendations.  In particular, on resource capabilities should MONUC undertake such additional activities.

 

 

Iraq (S/RES/1518)

Resolutions

Mandate

  • arms embargo; assets freeze

Target(s)/Designated List

Arms Embargo: Iraqi territory

Assets Freeze:
Designated individuals and entities associated with the former regime of Saddam Hussein.  As of 27 July 2005, there were 89 individuals, and as of 2 June 2004, there were 206 entities listed.

Committees Forecast

No Committee action is expected.

 

 

Liberia (S/RES/1521)

Resolutions

Mandate

arms embargo; export of rough diamonds, round logs and timber; travel ban and assets freeze

Target(s)/Designated List

  • Arms Embargo: any recipient in Liberian territory.
  • Travel Ban: peace spoilers, violators of the embargo, as designated by the Committee; as of 30 November 2005, 59 individuals were listed.
  • Assets Freeze: Charles Taylor and designated associates; 28 individuals and thirty entities were listed.

Committees Forecast

Mandate review:  The Security Council is expected to review the sanctions on Liberia diamonds in October; and will review the timber trade in September 2006; and perhaps modify the arms embargo and travel bans in Dec 2006.

Report: The next report of the Panel of Experts (PoE) is due by 15 December 2006, and the PoE’s mandate will expire 20 December 2006

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Rwanda (S/RES/918)

Resolutions

Mandate

arms embargo

Target(s)/Designated List

  • Arms Embargo: non-governmental forces in Rwandan territory or in neighbouring states if the arms are to be used in Rwanda; restrictions on arms transfers by the government of Rwanda.

Committees Forecast

No Committee action is expected.

 

 

Sierra Leone  (S/RES/1132)

Resolutions

Mandate

arms embargo; travel ban

Target(s)/Designated List

  • Arms Embargo: non-governmental forces; restrictions on arms transfers by the Government of Sierra Leone.
  • Travel Ban: Leading members of the former military junta and the Revolutionary United Front, as designated by the Committee.

Committees Forecast

No Committee action is expected.

 

 

Somalia  (S/RES/751)

Resolutions

Mandate

arms embargo

Target(s)/Designated List

  • any recipient in Somali territory

Committees Forecast

Reports: A mid-term report by the Monitoring Group (MG) is due by 20 August 2006 and a final report is due by 6 November 2006.  The MG’s mandate will expire 21 November 2006.

Action Pending: In the meantime, the Committee has not yet acted on the recommendations made in its 4 May report (S/2006/229) to strengthen the sanctions regime to prevent violations of the arms embargo.  This included a recommendation for the Council to impose an integrated arms embargo that would serve to reduce the availability of funds for the violators.

 

 

 Sudan (S/ RES/1591)

Resolutions

Mandate

arms embargo; travel ban; assets freeze

Target(s)/Designated List

  • Arms Embargo: all parties to the N’djamena Ceasefire Agreement and any other belligerents in Darfur; all non-governmental entities and individuals.
  • Assets Freeze and Travel Ban: as designated by the Committee, individual peace spoilers and violators of the arms embargo. Four individuals were designated by resolution 1672.
  • Aviation Restrictions: ban on government flights into and over the Darfur region.

Committees Forecast

Report: A final report by the Panel of Experts (PoE) is due by 30 August 2006 and the PoE’s mandate will expire 29 September 2006.

Action pending: Action by the Council is still pending on the recommendations made by the PoE in its 19 April report (S/2006/250).

 

 

Syria  (S/RES/1636)

Resolutions

Mandate

travel ban; assets freeze

Target(s)/Designated List

  • Assets Freeze and Travel Ban: individuals suspected of involvement in the Hariri murder designated by UNIIIC and/or the Government of Lebanon and agreed by the Committee (nobody has been designated as of this writing).

Committees Forecast

No Committee action expected prior to the next UNIIIC report.

Full forecast