August 2006 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 July 2006
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in our July Forecast are covered in the relevant briefs in this issue.  However, other interesting Council developments in July (but not due for consideration by the Council in August) include:

  • Appointment of the next Secretary-General:  The first “straw-poll” was held in the Council on 24 July with Ban Ki Moon of South Korea and Shashi Tharoor of India emerging as the current front-runners.
  • UNIIIC: The Secretary-General extended Serge Brammertz’s term to 31 December 2006 (S/2006/541).  The current crisis will likely push back any discussion of an expected draft agreement between the UN and the Lebanese government for an international tribunal.
  • Gaza: A draft resolution on Gaza sponsored by Qatar was vetoed by the US on 13 July (S/2006/508).  The draft resolution received a 10-1 vote with four abstentions (UK, Denmark, Peru and Slovakia).
  • North Korea: The Council unanimously adopted resolution 1695 on 15 July.  The resolution imposed limited economic sanctions and demanded that North Korea suspend its ballistic missile program.  The resolution also urged North Korea to return to the six-party talks without any pre-conditions.
  • Democratic Republic of Congo: On 30 June the Council adopted resolution 1693 extending the temporary increase in MONUC’s military and civilian police strength through 30 September. The 1533 Committee’s Group of Experts issued its report (S/2006/525). The Council was scheduled to extend the Group’s mandate, the targeted sanctions and the arms embargo on 31 July.
  • Uganda: The Secretary-General’s report on “how best to support efforts by states in the region to put an end” to groups such as the LRA was released in July (S/2006/478). In the report he recommended the appointment of a Special Envoy.  The Ugandan government’s response is in S/2006/558.  The Council was scheduled to consider Uganda in consultations on 28 July.
  • Children and Armed Conflict: There was an open Council debate on Children and Armed conflict on 24 July. A presidential statement reiterated the Council’s commitment to addressing the impact of armed conflict on children (S/PRST/2006/33).
  • Kosovo: On 13 July the Council met with Serbia’s Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, Kosovo’s President Fatmir Sejdiu and was briefed by Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari.  Ahtisaari announced a new high-level phase of status talks, the first of which took place in Vienna on 24 July. 
  • Georgia: The Secretary-General’s report on UNOMIG was issued on 26 June (S/2006/435). On 18 July Georgia’s parliament demanded that Russia withdraw its peacekeepers stationed Abkhazia and South Ossetia and be replaced with an international force. The Council held consultations on Georgia on 27 July.
  • Afghanistan: The council was briefed by Tom Koenigs, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Afghanistan, on 26 July.  A press statement welcoming further ISAF expansion and noting appreciation of efforts to implement the Afghan Compact was approved (SC/8787).
  • Burundi: On 30 June the Council adopted resolution 1692 extending ONUB’s mandate to 31 December 2006 and welcomed the Secretary-General’s intention to establish a UN integrated office in Burundi in 2007.
  • Liberia: On 13 July the Council authorised the increase in UNMIL’s police component by 125 personnel and decreased the military component by the same number (S/RES/1694).
  • Guinea-Bissau: The Secretary-General’s UNOGBIS report was issued on 6 July and was considered on 20 July (S/2006/487).  A press statement was issued welcoming President João Bernardo Vieira’s constructive dialogue with national actors (SC/8783).
  • Central African Republic: The Secretary-General’s 27 June BONUCA report was considered by the Council on 7 July (S/2006/441).  A press statement was issued expressing serious concern that deteriorating relations between Chad and Sudan might negatively affect the security and stability of CAR (SC/8771).
  • Working Methods: On 19 July the Council adopted a new document on Security Council working methods (S/2006/507).

Full forecast