Somalia
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The Council is expected to consider in informal consultations the Secretary-General's report on Somalia, which now seems likely to be available by the end of October. Despite the worsening situation in Somalia, it seems unlikely that any new concrete proposals on political reconciliation, sanctions or support for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) will emerge. AMISOM's Council authorisation expires on 20 February.
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In October, consultations are likely and expected to review the forthcoming Secretary-General's report, which is anticipated to cover: status of the political process; steps for an increased UN role in that regard, including the recent appointment of the new Special Representative of the Secretary-General Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, with reinforced status; the humanitarian and security situation; recommendations on UN support for AMISOM; and an update on contingency planning for a UN mission in Somalia.
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It is unclear whether in August the Council will take up the full scope of issues relating to Somalia, especially in light of the detailed consideration given to it in resolution 1766 on 23 July which addressed the political reconciliation process, the arms embargo and the renewal of the sanctions Monitoring Group.
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It seems unlikely in July that the Council will seriously consider a future UN peacekeeping role in Somalia. The security situation continues to be very dangerous and progress with political reconciliation is hesitant. It is unclear whether members will want to explore other options for UN involvement in Somalia, particularly in the political reconciliation process.
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In late June the Secretary-General is expected to report on progress with Somalia's national reconciliation process, including a broad ceasefire. The reconciliation congress is currently scheduled for mid-June, but it is unclear whether it will be held. The report will also discuss contingency planning for a possible UN peacekeeping mission in Somalia, but Council action on that seems unlikely at this stage.
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At press time, Council members were negotiating a possible presidential statement expressing grave concern about the humanitarian situation and calling for support for the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). It was unclear if or when the statement will be adopted.
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The Council expects the report of the Secretary-General on Somalia, due by 20 April. It is likely to include:developments on an all-inclusive political process and reconciliation; and recommendations on the UN's further engagement in Somalia, stabilisation and reconstruction and possibly the feasibility of transition from the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to a UN operation.
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Council members, encouraged in February by what they saw as a window of opportunity in Somalia, will be looking anxiously at developments in the country, particularly the slow progress with the deployment of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). The findings of the UN assessment mission will also be a focus.
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The Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Ibrahim Gambari is expected to brief the Council in early February. The Council is also expected to examine the request from the African Union (AU) for the UN to take over from AU peacekeepers in Somalia in six months.
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The Secretary-General's report under resolution 1725 is due on 6 January. It will be the first on a major crisis situation by the new Secretary-General and it will be an interesting test of his approach, particularly since the Council in December rejected the advice of his predecessor and his special representative and went ahead with approval for an Intergovernmental Authority on Development military mission in Somalia in resolution 1725.
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The Council seems likely to continue to be divided about the merits of a regional military mission (IGASOM) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) being deployed in Somalia to support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). At press time it seemed possible that a US draft resolution giving IGASOM a mandate to support the TFG could be circulated soon.
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The Secretary-General's Special Representative for Somalia, François Lonseny Fall, is expected to brief the Security Council in November. The wider regional implications of involvement in Somalia by Ethiopia and Eritrea are likely to play an increasing role. A presidential statement directed at Ethiopia and Eritrea is an option.
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The Council is likely to continue to discuss how best to support the ongoing talks between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC). In that context, continuing discussions are likely on modifications to the arms embargo (including equipment for training Somali security forces and criteria for targeted sanctions).
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The Council may moderate the tilt which it made in early August in support of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). In the absence of an established peace process involving consent from all parties, it seems unlikely at this stage that the Council will support the proposed African Union/Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) mission.
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No Council decisions on Somalia are scheduled this month. However, given the very unstable situation on the ground, Somalia is likely to feature in some way on the Council programme of work.
