July 2006 Monthly Forecast

• Nepal

  In July the Council is expected to consider the future of the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN). Its mandate expires on 23 July. The Secretary-General’s report is likely to contain an analysis of the implications of developments for the future of the peace process and UNMIN’s role. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  The Council will receive the Secretary-General's quarterly report on the UN Peacebuilding Support Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNOGBIS) as mandated by resolution 1580. Informal consultations are expected but no formal action is anticipated. Read more

• Overview

  France will have the Presidency of the Council in July and will be leading on four important issues. The framework for the Council process regarding the selection of the Secretary General. (Probably discussion will also commence on the candidates nominated... Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  Council members' attention will be focused on the general elections, scheduled for 30 July. In the lead up, depending on developments on the ground, members may want to adopt a statement reinforcing the election process. Read more

• Darfur/Sudan

  Discussion of the transition to a UN operation in Darfur is expected to continue in July. The Council expects a report from the Secretariat with the results of the AU/UN assessment mission and options for the transition. It is unclear what Council action will emerge, particularly since Khartoum continues to refuse to agree to the transition. Read more

• Uganda

  The Secretary-General's recommendations are still due on "how best to support efforts by states in the region to put an end to the activities of illegal armed groups", particularly those of the rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), requested in resolutions 1653 and 1663. Read more

• Update on Sanctions Committees

  In the month ahead, Council sanctions committees are expected to make progress on some of the recommendations of their expert panels, including the Somalia Monitoring Group, which issued a report on 4 May 2006; the Sudan Panel of Experts, which issued a report on 19 April 2006; the Al-Qaida/Taliban 1267 Sanctions Committee, which is due to send the Monitoring Team its report before the end of July; and the Democratic Republic of Congo Group of Experts. Read more

• Iran

  No Council action is expected in the first half of July unless, contrary to expectations, Iran responds early (and negatively) to the P5 plus Germany's package of incentives. From mid-July onwards, increased US pressure seems likely and this could take the form of bringing the issue back to New York-perhaps initially by raising it in Informal Consultations of the Council. Read more

• Somalia

  In the light of recent developments in Somalia it seems increasingly unclear whether or when the Council might consider the request of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) for exemption from the arms embargo for its proposed peace support mission in Somalia (IGASOM). Read more

• Children and Armed Conflict

  In July the Council is expected to have an open debate on children and armed conflict, chaired by the French foreign minister. It will consider a report from the chair of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict and be briefed by the Secretary-General's Special Representative on the issue and a representative from UNICEF. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update of Security Council Activity in June 2006. Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  The Council will consider the Secretary-General's report on the UN Operation in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) due in the first half of July. There will be a discussion on the progress made toward the implementation of the roadmap to the 31 October elections as well as an anticipated recommendation for an additional reinforcement of UNOCI's troop level. Read more

• Georgia

  The Council will receive the quarterly Secretary-General's report on the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG). Discussion is expected to be limited and is likely to focus on the developments in terms of peace proposals from both the Georgian government and the Abkhaz leadership. Read more

• Lebanon (UNIFIL)

  On 31 July, the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) will expire. The Council will receive the report of the Secretary-General around 20 July and is expected to adopt a routine resolution extending the mandate of UNIFIL by an additional six months. Read more

• Update on the Review of Mandates

  The Security Council's Ad-Hoc Committee on Mandate Review in June agreed on five clusters of mandates to be reviewed in phase one of its work. Read more

• Kosovo

  In July the Secretary-General's Special Envoy for the Future Status Process for Kosovo, Martti Ahtisaari of Finland, will give an assessment of talks between Belgrade and Pristina at a public meeting of the Council. No Council action is expected, but some probing questions in the Informal Consultations are likely. In September, Ahtisaari may return with an update. Read more

• Aide Memoire

  Important matters awaited include: On the Ugandan rebel group Lord’s Resistance Army, the recommendations requested in  resolution 1653 on “how best to support efforts by states in the region to put an end” to such groups are still outstanding. The most... Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for July 2006. Read more