Lebanon (UNIFIL)
Expected Council Action
On 31 July, the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) will expire. The Council will receive the report of the Secretary-General around 20 July and is expected to adopt a routine resolution extending the mandate of UNIFIL by an additional six months.
Options
Although UNIFIL has now been in place for 28 years, and there is pressure to downsize or withdraw long-standing operations, it seems highly unlikely that any option other than a standard rollover will be considered due to the situation in the Middle East.
Council Dynamics
Ongoing incidents along the UN-demarcated Blue Line between Lebanon and Israel seem likely to reinforce consensus among Council members on the utility of the role of UNIFIL. Few, if any, Council members seem inclined to raise political issues in discussions on UNIFIL’s mandate.
Similarly, it seems unlikely that the Council will take up the substance of the cross-border issues regularly raised by Lebanon and Israel.
Key Issues
The Secretary-General’s report will likely raise the following issues.
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Cross-border incidents between armed Lebanese elements and the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have not stopped.
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The UNIFIL Force Commander in January proposed the creation of a joint planning cell composed of UNIFIL and members of the Lebanese armed forces. This proposal was aimed at drawing up a plan for the extension of Lebanese authority in the UNIFIL area of operation, including the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south.
In his January report, the Secretary-General recommended the creation of this cell. The Council in resolution 1655 urged the Lebanese government to take up this proposal. One issue for the Council may be the progress made towards the establishment of the cell. (Given the ongoing Lebanese National Dialogue, including Hezbollah, Lebanese officials may be cautious about proceeding too quickly.)
A possible third issue is Hezbollah’s reinforced presence and visibility in the south, and the fact that it sometimes limits the work of UNIFIL through denial of access.
Another issue is the status of implementation of resolution 1680, which strongly encourages Syria to respond positively to the Lebanese request to delineate their common border, especially in the Sheb’a Farms area. This would have an impact on the activities of UNIFIL since an official recognition of the farms as being part of Lebanon would require a reshaping of the Blue Line and of the area that UNIFIL covers. The UNIFIL mandate and possibly the troop level would also have to be adjusted.
For key facts and historical background, please see our January 2006 Forecast Report.
| Last Security Council Resolution |
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| Secretary-General’s Reports |
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| Selected Letters |
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| Secretary-General’s Personal Representative to Lebanon |
| Geir O. Pedersen (Norway) |
| UNIFIL Force Commander |
| Major-General Alain Pellegrini (France) |
| Size and Composition of Mission |
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| Cost (approved budget) |
| 1 July 2005 – 30 June 2006: $99.23 million (gross) |
