March 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 2 March 2026
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Print
  • Share

Status Update since our February Forecast

Counter-Terrorism

On 3 February, Security Council members issued a press statement condemning terrorist attacks in Balochistan Province on 31 January that resulted in the deaths of 48 Pakistani nationals, including 31 civilians (SC/16287). The Balochistan Liberation Army claimed responsibility for the attacks.

On 4 February, the Security Council held a meeting (S/PV.10101) on the Secretary-General’s 22nd biannual strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) to international peace and security (S/2026/57). The briefers were Acting Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism and Head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) Alexandre Zouev and Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) Natalia Gherman. Chris Elmore, the UK’s Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, chaired the meeting.

On 13 February, Council members issued a press statement condemning a suicide terrorist attack on a mosque in Islamabad on 6 February that resulted in the deaths of 32 Pakistani nationals and injured 92 (SC/16296).

On 17 February, Council members agreed on a press statement condemning in the strongest terms the 3 February terrorist attack in Kwara State in Nigeria, which resulted in the loss of the lives of at least 100 people and the destruction of properties (SC/16297). The members reaffirmed that terrorism in all its forms and manifestations constitutes one of the most serious threats to international peace and security. They underlined the need to hold perpetrators, organisers, financiers, and sponsors of these reprehensible acts of terrorism accountable and to bring them to justice.

UN Peacekeeping

On 5 February, the Security Council received its annual briefing from the heads of police components of UN peace operations (S/PV.10102). The briefers were Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix; UN Police Adviser Faisal Shahkar; Police Commissioner of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) Mamouna Ouédraogo; and Police Commissioner of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Meinolf Schlotmann.

Sudan

On 9 February, Security Council members held closed consultations on Sudan. The meeting was requested by the UK (the penholder on Sudan), together with Bahrain and Denmark (the Council’s co-focal points on conflict and hunger), following the issuance of the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) alert on Sudan on 5 February. Director of the Crisis Response Division at the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Edem Wosornu and Assistant Executive Director for Programme Operations at the World Food Programme (WFP) Matthew Hollingworth briefed.

On 19 February, the Security Council held an open briefing on Sudan (S/PV.10109). UK Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs, Yvette Cooper, chaired the session. The briefers were Wosornu, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, and Regional Director of the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa Hala Al-Karib.

On 24 February, UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced the appointment of Pekka Haavisto as his new Personal Envoy for Sudan, succeeding Ramtane Lamamra in this role.

On 24 February, Council members agreed to a press statement expressing deep concern over the continued violence across Sudan, including in the Kordofan and Darfur regions (SC/16304). They called on the parties to the conflict to immediately halt the fighting and strongly condemned reports of repeated drone attacks targeting civilians, civilian infrastructure, and humanitarian personnel, as well as related premises and assets. They condemned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for its continued assaults and destabilising activities in the Kordofans region, and all forms of violations and abuses committed against the civilian population. They also expressed grave concern over conflict-induced famine and extreme food insecurity in parts of the country.

On 24 February, the 1591 Sudan Sanction Committee approved the listing of four RSF-affiliated individuals, subjecting them to the measures imposed by the Security Council (SC/16303).

South Sudan

On 10 February, the Security Council held an open briefing (S/PV.10103), followed by closed consultations, on the situation in South Sudan and the work of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). Lacroix briefed on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report (S/2026/58), which covered developments from 16 October 2025 to 15 January. The Interim Chairperson of the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), Major General (retired) George Aggrey Owinow, and Executive Director of the Community Empowerment for Progress Organization Edmund Yakani also briefed.

On 13 February, Council members agreed on a press statement expressing grave concern at the escalating violence in Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria, and across South Sudan (SC/16295). They recalled that, under international law, individuals who order the commission of war crimes may be held accountable. Council members called on all parties to de-escalate, immediately cease renewed hostilities, and resolve their differences through peaceful dialogue.

Yemen

On 12 February, the Security Council held a briefing on Yemen (S/PV.10105). UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and Director of the Humanitarian Financing and Resource Mobilization Division at the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Lisa Doughten briefed the Council.

Libya

On 18 February, Hanna Tetteh, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Libya and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), briefed the Council on Libya’s political, security, and humanitarian situation (S/PV.10107). She expressed concern over the lack of progress toward the political roadmap’s key milestones, including national elections and unified institutions. Tetteh also warned that unaddressed economic instability could jeopardise national security. Council members echoed these concerns and reaffirmed their support for UNSMIL’s efforts to advance the political process.

Middle East, including the Palestinian question

On 18 February, the Security Council held its regular monthly open briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.10108). The UK—the Council’s president in February—invited Council members to participate at the ministerial level, and Cooper chaired the meeting. Council members were briefed by DiCarlo and two civil society representatives: Hiba Qasas, Founding Executive Director of the Principles for Peace Foundation, and Nadav Tamir, Executive Director of J Street Israel. Egypt, Indonesia, Israel, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and the Observer State of Palestine also participated in the meeting.

West Africa and the Sahel

On 19 February, the Council agreed to the contents of a letter (S/2026/83) responding to the Secretary-General’s 20 January letter (S/2026/53) recommending the extension of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) mandate. In its letter, the Council decided to extend the UNOWAS mandate from 20 February to 31 January 2029. The Council expressed its intention to convene two regular UNOWAS briefings annually, while noting that additional briefings could be requested as needed. It also requested the Secretary-General to submit two annual reports on UNOWAS’ activities. The Council further welcomed the Secretary-General’s decision to conduct an independent strategic review of the UNOWAS mandate and activities and requested that the review be finalised and submitted by 30 September.

Ukraine

On 20 February, Russia convened an Arria-formula meeting titled “The Information Dimension of the Ukrainian Crisis: How Media Narratives Shape Conflict”. The briefers were Glenn Diesen, a Norwegian political scientist, and Andrea Lucidi, an Italian independent journalist.

On 24 February, the Security Council held a high-level briefing on Ukraine (S/PV.10110). The meeting was requested by Ukraine, with support from the Council’s European members (Denmark, France, Greece, Latvia, and the UK), to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of the country on 24 February 2022. The UK’s Minister of State for Europe, North America and Overseas Territories, Stephen Doughty, chaired the meeting, at which DiCarlo briefed. Ukraine and several regional countries participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Children and Armed Conflict

On 24 February, Panama convened an Arria-formula meeting titled “Red Hand Day 2026: Safe Education to Prevent the Recruitment and Use of Children in Armed Conflict”. The meeting was co-organised by Greece and Liberia, together with non-Council members Austria, Japan, and Uruguay. The briefers were Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict Vanessa Frazier; UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell; the Director of the Liaison Office in New York of the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Eliot Minchenberg; and the Haiti Operations Director at Save the Children, Johnny César Etienne.

Central African Republic                                                                                      

On 25 February, the Security Council held an open briefing on the situation in the Central African Republic (CAR) (S/PV.10111). The briefers were Special Representative of the Secretary-General for the CAR and Head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) Valentine Rugwabiza and the Chair of the CAR configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission, Ambassador Omar Hilale (Morocco).

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)

On 25 February, Council members met in consultations to discuss the work of the 1718 DPRK sanctions committee.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

On 25 February, Security Council members discussed recent developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) under “any other business” (AOB) following the consultations on the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee. Members convened at the UK’s request against the backdrop of recent secessionist rhetoric by the former president of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik. There were no briefers.

Situation in the Middle East 

On 28 February, the Security Council convened for an emergency briefing under the agenda item “The situation in the Middle East” to discuss the US-Israeli attacks on Iran that began earlier that day and the retaliatory strikes by Iran on Israel and several other countries in the region hosting US military facilities (S/PV.10112).  UN Secretary-General António Guterres provided the briefing.

 

Sign up for SCR emails

Subscribe to receive SCR publications