March 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 2 March 2026
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ASIA

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action

In March, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) ahead of its expiry on 17 March.

The Council is also scheduled to convene for its quarterly open briefing on Afghanistan. Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General (Political) and Officer-in-Charge of UNAMA Georgette Gagnon is expected to brief. Closed consultations are scheduled to follow the open briefing.

Key Recent Developments

On 26 February, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed Council members on her visit to Kabul from 24 to 25 January during an informal meeting organised by China at its mission to the UN in New York. While in Kabul, DiCarlo met with the Taliban, members of the diplomatic community, Afghan women (including national UN staff), and civil society representatives. According to a press release, DiCarlo raised concerns in her meetings with the de facto authorities regarding restrictions on UN Afghan female staff and broader limitations on women’s access to education, employment, and public life, calling for their immediate reversal. She also encouraged the de facto authorities’ full engagement in the Doha Process and stressed the need to address international obligations necessary for Afghanistan’s reintegration into the international community. DiCarlo further underscored the importance of ensuring unimpeded cross-border humanitarian assistance and sought the de facto authorities’ support in facilitating aid delivery.

The working groups on counter-narcotics and the private sector, established as part of the Doha Process, held meetings on 3 and 9 February, respectively, bringing together member states and international organisations, Taliban representatives, and subject matter experts.

On 16 February, an extraordinary meeting of the Regional Contact Group of Special Representatives of Central Asian countries on Afghanistan was held in Astana, Kazakhstan. Special representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan participated in the meeting, which focused on coordinating a regional approach to Afghanistan, including issues related to regional security, trade, and economic cooperation.

Tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan have continued to increase, with clashes in late 2025 marking a significant escalation in cross-border frictions. Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Taliban of allowing militant groups to target Pakistan from Afghanistan, allegations the Taliban deny. On 6 February, a suicide bombing at a Shiite Mosque in Islamabad killed 31 people. The attack was reportedly claimed by the regional affiliate of the Islamic State, known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K). On 16 February, a militant attack in Bajaur District, in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, resulted in the deaths of 11 security personnel. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) subsequently claimed responsibility.

On the night of 21 February, Pakistan launched airstrikes along the Afghan border, targeting what it described as “terrorist camps and hideouts” in Nangarhar and Paktika provinces in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s military said the strikes killed at least 70 militants. Taliban authorities, however, stated that the strikes hit civilian areas and resulted in dozens of casualties, including women and children. The Taliban’s defence ministry condemned the attack as a violation of the country’s sovereignty and said that an “appropriate and measured response” would be taken.

In a 23 February statement, UNAMA reported that preliminary casualty figures from 21 February airstrikes in Nangarhar province indicate that at least 13 civilians were killed and seven others injured, including women and children. In Paktika province, one airstrike reportedly struck a madrassa and partially damaged a nearby mosque, while another hit and partially destroyed a vacant private residence.

In response to Pakistani airstrikes, on 26 February, the Taliban reportedly launched attacks across multiple locations in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Media reports citing Taliban sources indicated that the attacks resulted in multiple casualties among Pakistani security forces and the capture of several military outposts. Pakistani authorities, however, rejected claims regarding the seizure of outposts and disputed the extent of casualties alleged by the Taliban. Subsequently, Pakistani forces reportedly carried out retaliatory airstrikes targeting locations in Kabul, Kandahar, and four provinces along the Afghanistan–Pakistan border. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Pakistan’s Defence Minister described the situation as an “open war” with Afghanistan. Satellite imagery reviewed by The New York Times confirmed that at least one ammunition depot in Kabul was struck. At the time of writing, the full extent of casualties and material damage reportedly remains unclear, with both sides claiming to have inflicted significant losses.

The human rights situation in Afghanistan has continued to deteriorate, particularly for women and girls. In early January, the Taliban introduced a new criminal procedural code containing stringent and discriminatory provisions that, among other things, further curtail women’s rights, normalise violence against women, and raise concerns about the legitimisation of practices amounting to slavery. The code reportedly defines certain offences in vague terms and grants sweeping discretionary powers to judges and authorities, creating broad scope for interpretation and enforcement.

Afghanistan continues to face one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises, with nearly half of the country’s population, 21.9 million people, projected to require humanitarian assistance this year. Food insecurity levels are especially high, with an estimated 17.4 million Afghans experiencing crisis or emergency levels of acute food insecurity between November 2025 and March. The large-scale returns to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan have also compounded the situation. In a 13 February press release, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reported that nearly 150,000 Afghans have returned so far this year, bringing the total number of returnees to approximately 5.4 million since October 2023.

Sanctions-Related Developments

The latest report of the Monitoring Team assisting the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, dated 3 February, highlighted persistent terrorist threats linked to Afghanistan. The report notes that the de facto authorities continued to provide a permissive environment for several terrorist groups, notably TTP, and raised concerns about the growing exploitation of commercial satellite communications and their increasing proficiency in using artificial intelligence.

It further assessed that Al-Qaida continued to benefit from the patronage of the de facto authorities and acted as a facilitator for other groups, particularly the TTP, including through training and advisory support. The report describes the TTP as one of the largest terrorist groups operating from Afghanistan, noting that its increasingly complex attacks against Pakistani security forces have contributed to cross-border military confrontations. At the same time, ISIL-K was assessed to be under sustained pressure, primarily as a result of regional counterterrorism operations and Taliban military actions.

Human Rights-Related Developments

In a 19 January press release, UN experts stressed the importance of codifying gender apartheid as a crime against humanity and upholding gender-responsive provisions in the proposed Treaty on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes Against Humanity. The UN General Assembly formally launched the intergovernmental process on the draft treaty in January, with the Preparatory Committee meeting from 19 to 30 January. The experts urged member states to ensure the meaningful participation of Afghan women in civil society, as well as gender justice activists in the treaty’s negotiations, underscoring that the treaty’s legitimacy hinges on whether it enables the inclusion of those who are living under the atrocities it seeks to address and prevent. Among other matters, the UN experts called on member states to strengthen other modes of support for Afghan women, girls, and gender-diverse persons, including through actively preventing normalisation of the de facto authorities and providing sustained funding for women-led civil society organisations.

Key Issues and Options

The renewal of UNAMA’s mandate is a key priority for the Security Council in March. One option would be for the Council to extend the mission’s mandate for another year without making any changes to its priorities and tasks. Another option is for Council members to reflect the evolving human rights and humanitarian situation in the country and to express concern about the Taliban’s restrictions on the mission’s operations. The current policy approach of the US administration towards UN special political missions may influence the tenor of the negotiations. In its remarks at the Council’s last open briefing on Afghanistan, the US suggested that if Taliban-imposed restrictions prevent UNAMA from effectively implementing its mandate, the Council may need to consider realigning the mission’s tasks to reflect prevailing realities, with a sharper focus on core peace and security priorities guided by clear and achievable benchmarks.

The Taliban’s continuing refusal to adhere to many of Afghanistan’s international obligations, especially those relating to women and girls, is a major issue for several Council members. Following the Taliban’s decision to prohibit Afghan women from working for the UN in early April 2023, the Council adopted resolution 2681 of 27 April 2023, which was co-drafted by then-Council members and co-pens on Afghanistan, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The resolution called for the full, equal, meaningful, and safe participation of women and girls in Afghanistan and called on the Taliban to swiftly reverse the policies and practices that restrict women and girls’ enjoyment of their human rights and fundamental freedoms. In light of the continued and expanding restrictions, Council members could consider a follow-up product reaffirming these commitments and urging the Taliban to ensure that women and girls are allowed to participate fully in public life, including education, employment, and engagement with the UN. Council members could also consider reflecting these concerns in the context of negotiations on UNAMA’s mandate.

The threat of terrorism coming from Afghanistan remains an issue. Members could consider convening informal meetings with regional counterterrorism experts to assess emerging terrorism risks and discuss possible responses. Expert-level discussions could help monitor trends, including the activities of terrorist groups operating from or within Afghanistan, and enhance situational awareness. Such engagement could also advance deliberations on harmonising approaches and strategies to address the evolving threat.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, coupled with severe funding shortfalls, remains another significant issue for the Council. During the Council’s most recent open briefing on Afghanistan in December 2025, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher underscored that women humanitarian staff must be able to carry out their work without restrictions, stressing that there can be no effective humanitarian response without their full participation. In this context, members could consider convening an informal meeting with humanitarian actors to explore options for mobilising additional funding and identifying steps the Council might take to facilitate sustained and principled humanitarian access.

Council Dynamics

Council members have generally been united in their desire to see Afghanistan ruled by an inclusive government, complying with its international obligations, and free from terrorism, but they are divided over how to achieve this goal.

The US position on Afghanistan appears to be evolving. During an 11 February hearing before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South and Central Asia, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs S. Paul Kapur indicated that various US agencies are in the process of formulating the Trump administration’s policy toward Afghanistan, although no timeline was provided.

The US has stated that its top priorities in Afghanistan remain protecting US citizens, mitigating terrorist threats, and securing the release of US detainees. It has accused the Taliban of engaging in “hostage diplomacy” by using detainees as leverage in negotiations and has criticised what it views as insufficient progress on counterterrorism commitments. The US has also signalled a more sceptical approach toward international assistance and engagement in Afghanistan, stressing the limited results of past assistance efforts.

China and Russia, for their part, have contended that the international community should provide economic and development assistance to Afghanistan without linking it to other issues, such as the rights of women and girls, and favour engagement and dialogue without increased pressure. Both members have repeatedly called for the release of frozen assets belonging to Afghanistan’s central bank, the bulk of which were seized by the US after the Taliban became the de facto authorities in August 2021 and have also pushed for the reinstatement of the standing exemption to the travel ban that expired in August 2022. Both members have also underlined the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan as a destabilising factor in the country.

Pakistan has linked its dispute with the Taliban to the alleged harbouring of terrorist groups, particularly the TTP, which Islamabad claims plans and conducts attacks against Pakistani security forces from across the border.

Pakistan has accused India of supporting armed groups targeting its territory, allegations that India has strenuously rejected. Meanwhile, India has taken steps to re-engage with Taliban authorities, meeting with senior Taliban representatives and re-opening its embassy in Kabul in October 2025.

This month’s quarterly meeting will mark the first time that new Council members Bahrain, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Latvia, and Liberia deliver statements on Afghanistan since joining the Council in January.

It will also mark the first time that China, as a sole penholder, takes the lead in negotiations on the mandate. (For background, see our 15 March 2025 What’s in Blue story.)

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UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN

Security Council Resolutions
17 March 2025S/RES/2777 This extended UNAMA’s mandate until 17 March 2026.
Sanctions Committee Documents
3 February 2026S/2026/44 This was a letter transmitting the thirty-seventh report of the Monitoring Team assisting the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee.

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