July 2017 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 June 2017
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update

Sudan (Darfur)

On 1 June, Council members issued a press statement condemning the attack on UNAMID peacekeepers by an unidentified group in a carjacking incident, which resulted in one peacekeeper being killed (SC/12851). On 8 June, the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Fatou Bensouda, briefed the Council on the situation in Darfur and cooperation with the ICC’s work pursuant to resolution 1593. Bensouda requested that the Council take action to respond to ongoing instances of non-compliance or non-cooperation relating to the situation in Darfur and the outstanding warrants (S/PV.7963). On 14 June, the Council was briefed by the Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, El-Ghassim Wane, on the joint AU-UN strategic review on UNAMID (S/PV.7969). Wane reported on the changes in UNAMID’s operating environment and recommended the proposed restructure, redeployment and refocusing of UNAMID to reflect the mission’s “new realities”. Key changes to UNAMID’s priorities discussed by Wane included the recommended increased focused on the effective implementation of the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur and an increased focus on the protection of civilians in the greater Jebel Marra area. On 29 June, the Council adopted resolution 2363renewing the mandate for UNAMID for an additional year. In line with the AU-UN strategic review, UNAMID will begin a process of restructuring and redeployment to be completed over the course of two successive six-month phases. An assessment will be completed following the first phase, allowing the Council an opportunity to delay or alter the second phase if required.

Côte d’Ivoire

On 2 June, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNOCI Aïchatou Mindaoudou delivered her final briefing to the Council ahead of the mission’s closure on 30 June. Mindaoudou commended the government of Côte d’Ivoire for the progress made so far including the successful holding of elections, the constitutional referendum, and economic growth. However, she also expressed concern over the recent cases of mutiny and called on the government to address this issue. Members of the Council commended the government, and some stressed that lessons learned in Côte d’Ivoire could be used for future UN peacekeeping operations (S/PV7957). On 30 June, the Council adopted a presidential statement welcoming the closure of UNOCI (S/PRST/2017/8).

DPRK (North Korea)

On 2 June, the Council adopted resolution 2356, condemning “in the strongest terms” the nuclear weapons and ballistic missile development activities, including missile launches, conducted by the DPRK in “flagrant disregard” of relevant Council resolutions since 9 September 2016, the date of Pyongyang’s last nuclear test (S/PV.7958). The resolution added 14 individuals and four entities to the targeted sanctions list under the 1718 DPRK sanctions regime. After the adoption, all Council members spoke explaining their vote. The 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee announced on 1 June that it had amended four entries on its sanctions list (SC/12850), and on 5 June it announced the amendment of another two entries (SC/12855).


On 2 June, the Council received the quarterly report from the IAEA on Iran’s implementation of resolution 2231, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme (S/2017/502). The report found that Iran had continued to comply with its nuclear-related commitments under the agreement. On 29 June, the Council held its semi-annual meeting on resolution 2231 (S/PV.7990). Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman presented the Secretary-General’s latest report on implementation of the resolution (S/2017/515). Ambassador Sebastiano Cardi (Italy) briefed the Council in his capacity as the facilitator of resolution 2231 implementation arrangement, while the head of the EU delegation in New York, Ambassador Joâo Pedro Vale de Almeida, spoke on behalf of the Joint Commission, the mechanism established by the parties to the JCPOA to oversee its implementation coordinated by the EU. The Council also received written reports from the Joint Commission (S/2017/495) and the facilitator (S/2017/537) ahead of the meeting, and held an expert level meeting on 23 June in the so-called 2231 format to discuss the Secretary-General’s report. In a separate development, Council members issued a press statement on 7 June, condemning the terrorist attack perpetrated by ISIL in Tehran that same day in which more than 50 people were killed or injured (SC/12859).

Children and Armed Conflict

The Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict met on 2 June to discuss the Secretary-General’s report on children and armed conflict in the Philippines (S/2017/294) and an update on the Secretary-General’s annual report. On 22 June the working group met to adopt its conclusions on children and armed conflict in Sudan.

Conflict Prevention

On 6 June, the Council held a high-level briefing on “preventive diplomacy and transboundary waters” which was chaired by Bolivian President Evo Morales (S/PV.7959).  Secretary-General António Guterres briefed, maintaining that “water, peace and security are inextricably  linked.” There was no formal outcome. 

International Criminal Tribunals

On 7 June, the Council held its semi-annual debate on the ad hoc international criminal tribunals (S/PV.7960). The briefers included Carmel Agius, the President of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia; Theodor Meron, the President of the UN Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals; and Serge Brammertz, Prosecutor of the UN Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals. There was no formal outcome.


On 7 June, the Council received a briefing from Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNSMIL Martin Kobler (S/PV.7961). The Council was also briefed by the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee chair, Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden). On 12 June, the Council adopted resolution 2357 renewing for an additional year resolution 2292 of 14 June 2016, which was aimed at ensuring implementation of the arms embargo on Libya (S/PV.7964). In particular, the resolution renews the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect, on the high seas off the coast of Libya, vessels bound to or from Libya when reasonable grounds exist to believe that they are violating the arms embargo. It further renews the authorisation for member states to seize and dispose arms and ammunition found during the inspection of these vessels. On 29 June, the Council adopted resolution 2362 renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee and the measures regarding attempts to illicitly export oil from Libya.

Central African Republic

On 12 June, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for the CAR, Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, briefed the Council on the implementation of MINUSCA’s mandate (S/PV.7965). Onanga-Anyanga described the recent increase in violence in the CAR, particularly of violence directly targeting civilians and MINUSCA personnel, and insisted that MINUSCA would maintain a robust posture towards armed groups, although this would need to be accompanied by increased peacebuilding efforts. Onanga-Anyanga was joined by the President of the Community of Sant’Egidio, Marco Impagliazzo, who described his organisation’s efforts to enhance inclusive dialogue by all groups.

UNOCA (Central Africa)

On 13 June, François Loucény Fall, the Special Representative and head of UNOCA, briefed the Security Council on the semi-annual report on UNOCA and the implementation of the UN regional strategy to combat the LRA (S/PV.7967). Fall warned that the “continued threat of the [LRA] to regional stability should not be underestimated” in light of the withdrawal of Ugandan and South Sudanese forces from the AU Regional Task Force, along with US special forces. He added that he was concerned about the LRA possibly exploiting the security vacuum created by the disengagement of the forces. The briefing was followed by consultations.

Mine Action

On 13 June, at the initiative of Bolivia, the Council held a briefing under the agenda item “maintenance of international peace and security” with the title “Comprehensive Approach to Mine Action and Explosive Hazard Threat Mitigation”(S/PV.7966). In its concept note for the meeting, Bolivia said that the cross-cutting nature of mine action and its relevance to promoting the peace and security agenda made it appropriate for the Council to hold a thematic briefing and adopt a resolution that would frame “a comprehensive approach to mine action and explosive hazard threat mitigation.” The Assistant Secretary-General for the Rule of Law and Security Institutions in the Department of Peacekeeping Operations, Alexander Zuev, briefed on the work of the UN related to mine action, with a focus on the UN Mine Action Service (UNMAS), while a representative of UNMAS in Colombia, Nathalie Ochoa Nina, spoke about her experience in the field. On 30 June, the Council adopted resolution 2365 on mine action. 

UNDOF (Golan Heights)

On 15 June, Council members met with UNDOF TCCs. On 19 June, Council members held consultations on the Secretary-General’s 8 June report on UNDOF, covering 2 March to 16 May (S/2017/486). On 29 June, the Council adopted resolution 2361 renewing UNDOF’s mandate for an additional six months.


On 16 June, the Council received a briefing from Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of MINUSMA Mahamat Saleh Annadif (S/PV.7975) based on the 6 June Secretary-General’s report (S/2017/478). On 29 June, the Council adopted resolution 2364 renewing MINUSMA’s mandate for an additional year.

Arria-Formula Meeting on Famine

On 16 June, Security Council members held an Arria-formula meeting on the risk of famine in the conflict-affected areas of north-east Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen. The meeting was organised by Egypt, Ethiopia and Senegal in response to the Secretary-General’s 21 February letter to member states, highlighting the global food crisis and the risk of famine in these four countries. Briefings were given by Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed; Franck Bousquet, Senior Director of the Fragility, Conflict and Violence Group of the World Bank; and Andrea Tamburini, CEO of the NGO Action Against Hunger. 


On 19 June, Ambassadors Cho Tae-yul (Republic of Korea) and Macharia Kamau (Kenya), the current and former chairs of the PBC, briefed the Council (S/PV.7976) to present the PBC’s tenth annual report (S/2017/76). This was followed by an informal interactive dialogue on regional peacebuilding challenges focusing on the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin with Council members, representatives of the PBC, and Burkina Faso.


On 21 June, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2359 welcoming the deployment by the Group of Five—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger—of a joint force throughout the territories of its contributing countries with a view to restoring peace and security in the Sahel (S/PV.7979).


On 21 June, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNAMA Tadamichi Yamamoto briefed the Council on the latest Secretary-General report (S/2017/508) and recent developments (S/PV.7980). Yamamoto noted that Afghanistan is currently going through a political and security crisis and urged the National Unity Government to increase political inclusiveness, strengthen accountability and improve the government’s credibility to avert deterioration of situation. Council members voiced concern regarding the recent surge of terrorist attacks in the country and expressed support for the government of Afghanistan in tackling ongoing political and security issues.  


On 22 June, Council members held an Arria-formula meeting on “preventing terrorism and violent extremism in the Horn of Africa: Enhancing partnership for regional efforts”. The meeting was co-hosted by Ethiopia and Italy with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. Also in June, one additional name was added to the ISIL (Da’esh) & Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee sanctions list (on 16 June), while two entries were amended (on 20 June).


On 27 June, the Council held a briefing followed by the consultations on the situation in Liberia (S/PV.7984). Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNMIL Farid Zarif briefed on the latest Secretary-General’s report (S/2017/510) and activities related to the mission’s drawdown. Ambassador Olof Skoog (Sweden), Chair of the Liberia Configuration of the PBC, briefed on his recent visit to the country and PBC-related developments. Both briefers as well as Council members emphasised the importance of holding free and fair presidential elections in October and a subsequent democratic transfer of power. Furthermore, they stressed the need for a smooth drawdown of UNMIL and transition to the UN country team. 

UNRCCA (Central Asia)

On 27 June, Special Representative Petko Draganov briefed Council members in consultations on the work of UNRCCA. He covered a number of key regional issues, including the threat of terrorism and extremism, the impact of the situation in Afghanistan, drug-trafficking, transboundary water management, and tensions linked to border-related disputes. The Secretary-General’s visit to Central Asia from 8-13 June was also discussed.  


On 28 June, the Council held an open debate on “the global effort to prevent the-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by non-state actors” focusing on implementation of resolution 1540 and the work of the 1540 Sanctions Committee (S/PV.7895 and Resumption 1). It was held at the initiative of Bolivia, the chair of the Committee. In its concept note, Bolivia outlined as a focus for the debate “how to reinforce the preventive system to avoid the humanitarian, political, economic and environmental catastrophe that could result from the use of a nuclear, chemical and biological weapon by non-state actors, particularly terrorists”, while taking into account resolution 2325 adopted on 15 December 2016 on the comprehensive review of the implementation of resolution 1540. Izumi Nakamitsu, Under-Secretary-General and High Representative for Disarmament Affairs briefed, along with Joseph Ballard, senior officer from the Office of Strategy and Policy at the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. In addition to Council members, more than 40 speakers participated in the debate. 


Sign up for SCR emails