July 2017 Monthly Forecast

• In Hindsight: Council Action and Inaction on Yemen

  On 15 June, the Security Council adopted a presidential statement on Yemen, which focused on the country’s humanitarian crisis and confidence-building measures related to Hodeidah port. It was the Council’s first product on the Yemen war in nearly 14 months, with the exception of the annual resolution that it adopts to renew the Yemen sanctions regime. In total, the Council has adopted five decisions on Yemen since the start of the Saudi Arabia-led intervention on 26 March 2015: resolution 2216, two resolutions to renew the sanctions measures and two presidential statements. This output contrasts with the Council’s activity regarding other major wars and humanitarian crises, such as those in South Sudan and Syria. Read more

• AU-UN Cooperation

  In July, the Council is planning to hold an open debate on “Enhancing African capabilities in the area of peace and security”. Read more

• Syria

  In July, Council members expect to receive briefings on political and humanitarian developments in Syria and on chemical weapons, including on the work of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)-UN Joint Investigative Mechanism (JIM). Read more

• Democratic Republic of the Congo

  In July, the Security Council expects to be briefed by Maman Sambo Sidikou, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of MONUSCO, on the Secretary-General’s three-monthly report on the implementation of MONUSCO's mandate and most recent developments. The mandate of MONUSCO expires on 31 March 2018. Read more

• Overview

  China will have the presidency in July. Read more

• UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel

  In July, Mohamed Ibn Chambas, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNOWAS, will brief the Council on recent developments and the semi-annual UNOWAS report. Read more

• Cyprus

  In July, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) for another six months, ahead of its 31 July expiry. Elizabeth Spehar, Special Representative and head of mission, is expected to brief on the latest UNFICYP report. Espen Barth Eide, the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Cyprus, may also brief on key developments in the negotiations between the Cypriot leaders.  Read more

• Haiti

  In July, Special Representative and head of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) Sandra Honoré is expected to brief the Council on recent developments and the latest Secretary-General’s report which is due by 12 July. Read more

• Iraq

  In July, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Ján Kubiš will brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s report on UNAMI and the most recent developments. UNAMI’s mandate, which expires on 31 July, is likely to be renewed for another year. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update since our June Forecast Read more

• Lebanon (1701)

  In July, Special Coordinator for Lebanon Sigrid Kaag will brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.    Read more

• Israel/Palestine

  In July, the Council will hold its regular quarterly open debate under the agenda item, “the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question.” Read more

• Yemen

  In July, the Council expects to receive a briefing from the Special Envoy for Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed. Read more

• Burundi

  In July, the Council may consider whether to renew the authorisation of a UN police component for Burundi, with a ceiling of 228 officers, as stipulated by resolution 2303 of 29 July 2016. The police component was intended to monitor the security situation and support the monitoring of human rights. However, it has never been deployed as Burundi has ignored the resolution and refused to allow the component to be established. The component proposal remains a divisive issue in the Council. Resolution 2303 was adopted with 11 votes in favour and four abstentions (Angola, China, Egypt and Venezuela). Authorisation for the police component expires on 29 July. Read more

• South Sudan

  In July, the Council is expected to consider the Secretary-General’s 30-day assessment of UNMISS and the deployment and future requirements of the RPF. The UNMISS mandate expires on 15 December 2017.  Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable Dates for July Read more

• Colombia

  Following a request by the government of Colombia and the FARC-EP, in July, the Council expects to adopt a resolution establishing a second special political mission that will be deployed in Colombia. The mandate of the UN Mission in Colombia expires on 26 September. Read more

• Somalia and Eritrea

  In July, the Chair of the Somalia and Eritrea 751/1907 Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Kairat Umarov (Kazakhstan), will deliver his 120-day briefing to the Council. Read more