August 2011 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 July 2011
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update

Afghanistan: On 6 July, the Council held an open debate on the situation in Afghanistan, where the Council received a briefing from the head of the UN Mission in Afghanistan, Staffan de Mistura (S/PV.6574). There was no outcome from the debate.

Central African Republic: On 7 July, the Council received a briefing (S/PV.6575) from Margaret Vogt, Special Representative and Head of BINUCA as she presented the Secretary-General’s most recent report (S/2011/311) on CAR. Vogt emphasised that the country still faced serious challenges, including extreme poverty, weak national institutions, corruption, a high rate of violent crime perpetrated by armed movements and brigands, human rights violations and impunity. She stressed that the two most immediate challenges were the implementation of peace agreements with rebel groups, and the sustainable disarmament and reintegration of former combatants as part of overall security-sector reform. Jan Grauls Chair of the PBC’s CAR Configuration also briefed the Council saying that the PBC had convened the Partners’ Round Table in Brussels to increase awareness of the second phase of CAR’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper.

West Africa (UNOWA): On 8 July, the Council was briefed (S/PV.6577) by Said Djinnit, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNOWA on the situation in West Africa and the Secretary-General’s most recent report (S/2011/388). Djinnit urged the Council to remain vigilant as several elections scheduled between now and 2013 in the subregion had the potential to ignite violence and instability. He also noted drug trafficking and organised crime as threats to stability. Djinnit highlighted positive developments in the subregion, including the end of the protracted post-election crisis in Côte d’Ivoire and Niger’s successful elections and political transition. Also on Niger, he stressed the need to address security and development challenges, including ending chronic food insecurity. Djinnit also highlighted the positive impact of increased women’s participation on resolving conflicts in the subregion. 

Children and Armed Conflict: On 12 July, the Security Council held an open debate (S/PV.6581 and resumption 1) on children and armed conflict and adopted resolution 1998 on children and armed conflict, expanding the criteria for listing parties to conflict in the Secretary-General’s report on children and armed conflict to include parties that attack or threaten schools and hospitals. The Council also expressed its intention when establishing, modifying or renewing the mandate of relevant sanctions regimes to consider including provisions on parties to armed conflict that violate international law relating to the protection of children in armed conflict. The German foreign minister presided over the debate, which was attended by the Colombian and Bosnia and Herzegovina foreign ministers, the South African Minister of Justice and Constitutional Development, and Portugal’s Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs. The Council heard from the Secretary-General, Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict Radhika Coomaraswamy and Anthony Lake, Executive Director of UNICEF. Forty-one other member states also spoke at the debate.

Syria: On 12 July, the Council issued a press statement condemning the 11 July attacks on the French and US embassies in Damascus (SC/10321). On 14 July the Council was briefed by an official from the IAEA on the Syrian nuclear issue in informal consultations. (The IAEA referred the issue to the Council on 9 June due to Syria’s lack of cooperation with the Agency.)  There was no Council outcome. Council members have been keen to keep their consideration of the nuclear issue and the embassy attacks separate from the ongoing political and humanitarian crisis in Syria. For months Council members have been discussing a draft resolution on Syria focused the political and humanitarian issues without being able to reach agreement, the last discussion was at experts level on 6 July.  The Syrian situation was also mentioned by some Council members at the 26 July open debate on the Middle East (S/PV.6590 and resumption 1) and was discussed during the monthly DPA horizon scanning exercise on 28 July.

Terrorism: On 13 July, Council members condemned the terrorist attacks that killed over twenty people that day in Mumbai, India (SC/10325). On 23 July the members of the Council condemned the terrorist attacks in Norway that killed scores of people the day before (SC/10337).

UNRCCA: On 15 July members of the Council were briefed by Special Representative Miroslav JenĨa on the work of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia over the past six months. In a press statement which followed the briefing (SC/10327) Council members expressed appreciation for the efforts of the Centre as a mechanism of preventative diplomacy responding to challenges to peace and development in the region, including solutions to water and energy management, the implementation of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy, and the situations in Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan.

Côte d’Ivoire: On 18 July, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN mission in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), Choi Young-jin, briefed the Council on the latest developments in Côte d’Ivoire (S/PV.6584) as well as the key observations from the latest Secretary-General’s report (S/2011/387). The Council followed the briefing with closed consultations. On 27 July the Council adopted resolution 2000 which renewed the mandate of UNOCI at its current force levels (including the earlier ad hoc increases) until 31 July 2012.

Climate Change: On July 20, the Council held an open debate on the impact of climate change on the maintenance of international peace and security (S/PV.6587 and resumption 1). The debate was attended by the Secretary-General, the executive director of the UN Environment Programm, Achim Steiner, the President of Nauru, Marcus Stephen, on behalf of the Pacific small islands developing states, the acting head of the delegation of the EU to the UN, and representatives from 47 additional countries. (During the open debate, several states including Egypt, on behalf of the non-aligned movement, and Argentina, on behalf of the group of 77 and China, expressed concerns that any Council decision should not encroach on the authority of other bodies addressing the issue of climate change. By contrast, other states argued that climate change has security implications that fall under the purview of the Security Council’s mandate.) Towards the end of the open debate Council members reached agreement on the text of a presidential statement which was adopted as (S/PRST/2011/15). The statement expresses the concern of the Council that sea-level rises may carry security implications on low-lying island states and requested the Secretary-General to provide contextual information on the possible security implications of climate in his reporting on situations on the Council’s agenda.

LRA: On 21 July, the Council held a private meeting on the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). The Council was briefed by Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Tayé-Brook Zerihoun, while representatives of the CAR, DRC, South Sudan, Uganda and the AU were in attendance. Following the meeting, the Council released a press statement (SC/10335) strongly condemning the ongoing attacks of the LRA and urging all LRA elements to surrender and disarm. The statement commended the efforts taken by the militaries of the CAR, DRC, South Sudan and Uganda to address the LRA threat and welcomed the recent AU initiative proposing a range of activities to address the LRA problem. The Council also requested the Secretary-General to report back to in October about on developments in relation to the LRA, including an assessment of the threat posed by the group and regional and UN efforts to address this threat.

Eritrea: On 21 July, the Council held an Interactive Dialogue with Eritrea. Eritrea had been requested a meeting of the Security Council to press its case for lifting of sanctions. However, in light of the latest Somalia Monitoring Group report which includes information of Eritrea’s support for anti-government elements in Somalia. Council members decided to have the meeting as an Internal Dialogue so that IGAD members Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti and Uganda could also participate in the meeting.

Sudan/Darfur: On 22 July, the Joint AU-UN Special Representative for Darfur and head of the AU-UN Hybrid Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), Ibrahim Gambari, briefed the Council on recent developments in Darfur (S/PV.6589), largely drawing upon the latest quarterly report of the Secretary-General (S/2011/422). The Council followed the briefing with closed consultations. At press time the Council was expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of UNAMID for a further 12 months. The current mandate expired on 31 July.

Somalia: On 25 July, Council members heard a briefing from Catherine Bragg, Assistant Secretary General in the Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) on the humanitarian situation in Somalia, following the UN’s declaration of famine in two areas. The Council issued a press statement following this briefing (SC/10339) urging humanitarian access to the affected areas and urging all UN member states to contribute funds to the UN’s consolidated appeal for Somalia. At press time the Council was expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the Somalia Monitoring Group which expired on 31 July.

Middle East: On 26 July, Robert Serry, the Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, briefed the Council.  This was followed by the Council’s quarterly open debate (S/PV.6590 and resumption 1). Serry said that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is in profound and persistent deadlock.  The Quartet again failed to reach an agreement at its 11 July meeting in Washington, DC.  Council members expressed concern about the stalemated peace process against the backdrop of heightened expectations of developments in the General Assembly in September regarding Palestine’s status at the UN. The report of the Panel of Inquiry into the 31 May 2010 Gaza flotilla incident, originally expected in February, is now completed but formal transmission to the Secretary-General has been delayed to permit a short period of bilateral negotiations.

Iraq: On 28 July the Council extended the mandate of UNAMI for a year (S/RES/2001). On 30 June, the Council issued a press statement (SC/10307) that welcomed Iraq’s establishment of a successor arrangement for the Development Fund for Iraq and noted that oversight of the fund had been transferred to Iraq.

full forecast