February 2011 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 January 2011
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Status Update

Nepal: On 5 January Secretary-General’s Representative in Nepal Karin Landgren gave her final briefing (S/PV/6465) to the Council as the head of UNMIN. She said that although the peace process was still incomplete, UNMIN had performed its mandated tasks and contributed significantly to peace. She also noted that the peace process continued to be deadlocked with little progress on the critical issues. The Council also had before it the Secretary-General’s report on UNMIN (S/2010/658). On 14 January, on the eve of UNMIN’s mandate expiry, the Council adopted a presidential statement (S/PRST/2011/1) reaffirming its support for the peace process in Nepal and saying it would continue to be supportive of the peace process and the people of Nepal following UNMIN’s departure from Nepal.

Conflict Prevention: Horizon Scanning: On 10 January Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe briefed Council members in consultations on issues of possible concern. The briefing was in line with similar “horizon scanning” consultations held in November 2010 during the UK presidency. Discussion apparently focused on potential issues arising from some of the many upcoming elections in Africa this year, with Council members emphasising that prospective complications would likely only arise in a few particular instances.

UNRCCA: On 13 January Council members were briefed by Special Representative of the Secretary-General Miroslav JenĨa, on the work of the UNRCCA. A press statement (SC/10151) following the briefing expressed appreciation for the efforts of the Centre as a mechanism for preventive diplomacy, particularly in Kyrgyzstan, and encouraged further cooperation and coordination between the governments of the region, the Regional Centre, and relevant regional organisations in this regard.

Somalia: On 14 January, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia, Augustine Mahiga, briefed the Council (S/PV.6467) on new developments since the Secretary-General’s 30 December 2010 report on the situation in the country (S/2010/675). Mahiga focused on the remaining transitional tasks before the end of the transitional period in August, as well as the UN strategy, the difficult humanitarian situation and the need for a comprehensive anti-piracy approach. He appealed for enhanced support—both financial and material—to AMISOM. Following informal consultations, Council members, in a press statement (SC/10154), called on the Somali government to “redouble its efforts” to complete the remaining transitional tasks, expressed their intention to monitor the situation closely and called on the international community to provide additional resources and support to AMISOM. They also condemned attacks against civilians and called on all parties to abide by their obligations under international humanitarian law.

On 25 January, the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Legal Issues related to Piracy off the Coast of Somalia, Jack Lang, briefed the Council on his recommendations to the Secretary-General (S/PV.6473) as contained in his report transmitted to Council members on 19 January (S/2011/30). Lang described the situation with regard to piracy as serious and even worsening and said it had to be addressed with “extreme urgency”. He called for a strengthening of existing measures as well as implementation of new initiatives, including the establishment of specialised domestic courts in Somaliland and Puntland, as well as an extraterritorial Somali specialised court to be established somewhere in the region, possibly in Arusha.

Haiti: On 20 January, the Council was briefed (S/PV.6471) on the situation in Haiti by Alain Le Roy, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations and Valerie Amos, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. Le Roy noted while the overall security situation remained calm despite some sporadic violence, the risk of further unrest remains a concern. He said the international community should work with Haiti to help ensure a credible election result so the country’s government can remain focused on earthquake recovery efforts. He voiced commitment to shedding further light on the origins of the cholera epidemic, noting the Secretary-General announced on 6 January the creation of an independent panel to investigate the cause of the outbreak. Amos said much had been accomplished in the last year in providing shelter, drinking water, sanitation and education to the people of Haiti. While the fatality rate from the cholera outbreak had been reduced from nine to two percent, she noted that stability in the country was required to continue combating the disease.

Post-Conflict Peacebuilding: The Council held an open debate on institution-building in post-conflict countries on 21 January. The Secretary-General opened the debate. Other speakers included Vice Prime Minister of Timor-Leste José Luis Guterres and German Ambassador Peter Wittig, who spoke both in his national capacity and as chair of the PBC. In its presidential statement (S/PRST/2011/2) following the debate the Council stressed that institution-building was a critical component of peacebuilding, emphasising the importance of national ownership. The Council also stressed its willingness to make greater use of the advisory role of the PBC and the importance of well-defined partnerships among the key stakeholders. It also committed itself to improving its consideration of peacebuilding tasks related to institution-building in mandates and composition of peacekeeping operations, special political missions and integrated peacebuilding offices.

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