September 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 27 August 2008
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments in the Council included:

Sierra Leone: On 4 August, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1829 authorising the creation of a follow on peacebuilding office in Sierra Leone, the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL), to replace the UN Integrated Office in Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL) for a period of one year commencing on 1 October.

Kosovo: On 6 August, the Council was briefed by Edmond Mulet, Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations in closed consultations, on the UN’s review of the actions taken by UN peacekeepers at Mitrovica on 17 March. No decisions were taken.

Georgia: At press time, the Council had met seven times in August to discuss the situation in Georgia. It first met late on 7 August at Russia’s request for consultations followed by an open meeting (S/PV.5951). After Georgia and the US requested a meeting, the Council held consultations to discuss a possible press statement and then held an open meeting (S/PV.5952) on 8 August. On 9 August, the Council held consultations and was briefed by the Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet. On 10 August, the Council held an open debate with Georgia’s participation and was briefed by Under Secretary-General B. Lynn Pascoe and Mulet (S/PV.5953) after having had private consultations. The Council held a closed meeting on 11 August, during which Mulet and Pascoe briefed the Council. On 19 August, at the request of Georgia, the Council held consultations followed by an open meeting where Mulet and Pascoe again briefed the Council (S/PV.5961). Several drafts of a resolution on the situation in Georgia have been circulated. On 11 August, the French circulated a first French draft. This was followed by a second French draft on 19 August. On 20 August, Russia formally circulated its draft resolution (S/2008/570). The Council held closed consultations on 22 August and discussed the Russian and French draft resolutions.

Iraq: On 7 August, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1830, renewing the mandate of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) for a period of 12 months. The resolution calls upon the government of Iraq and other member states to continue to provide security and logistical support to UNAMI. On 6 August, the Council held an open debate (S/PV.5949) during which it was briefed by Under Secretary-General B. Lynn Pascoe on the report on UNAMI’s activities (S/2008/495). The US on behalf of MNF-I described a sustained decrease in security incidents and violence. Nonetheless, Al-Qaida remained a serious threat, and the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq was of concern.

Counter-Terrorism (1540 Committee): On 18 August, the 1540 Committee presented its second report (S/2008/493) to the Security Council on the status of implementation of resolution 1540 on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (S/PV.5955). The report indicated that although states had taken additional measures since the first report of the Committee in April 2006, further measures needed to be taken to implement resolution 1540 in full. The report called for the 1540 Committee to strengthen its clearing house role for channeling assistance to member states through enhancing its dialogue with member states to identify projects; making better use of financial mechanisms to build capacity to implement resolution 1540; and working more closely with global and regional bodies in developing innovative mechanisms to achieve implementation.

Algeria: On 19 August,the Council met following consultations to discuss the terrorist attacks of earlier that day in Issers, Algeria (S/PV.5962). It adopted a presidential statement that condemned the attacks, underlined the need to bring those responsible to justice and reiterated the Council’s determination to fight all forms of terrorism (S/PRST/2008/31).

Mauritania: The Council met on 19 August to discuss the situation in Mauritania (S/PV.5960). It adopted a presidential statement that condemned the Mauritanian military’s overthrow of the democratically elected government; welcomed statements by the AU, the EU and other members of the international community condemning the coup; and demanded “the immediate release of President Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi and the restoration of the legitimate, constitutional, democratic institutions immediately” (S/PRST/2008/30).

Timor-Leste: On 19 August, the Council held an open debate (S/PV.5958) during which it was briefed by Atul Khare, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Timor-Leste on the Secretary-General’s report on the United Nations Integrated Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT) (S/2008/501) and by Zacarias da Costa, Timor-Leste’s Minister for Foreign Affairs. In his 29 July report, the Secretary-General recommended that no adjustments be made to the UNMIT mandate and strength given the fragility of the situation. The Council adopted a presidential statement reaffirming support for UNMIT, and acknowledging that the political, security, social and humanitarian situation in the country remains fragile. The statement also reaffirmed the importance of the review and reform of the security sector and ongoing efforts to reach accountability and justice (S/PRST/2008/29).

Middle East: On 20 August, the Council held its monthly consultations on the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question. Under Secretary-General B. Lynn Pascoe gave a briefing on the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations and indirect talks between Israel and Syria. Pascoe emphasised that Hamas and the Palestinian Authority should both release detainees as a first step toward reconciliation. Israeli settlement activity also continued, and there has been no progress on talks for the release of the Israeli soldier captured in 2006 by Hamas. Finally, he pointed out that economic and daily life in Gaza remained extremely difficult. On Lebanon, he said that the past month was marked by positive political development, yet security concerns remained (S/PV.5963).

Pakistan: On 21 August, the Council met following consultations to discuss the suicide attacks that occurred in Wah Cantt, Pakistan, earlier in the day (S/PV.5964). It adopted a presidential statement that condemned the attacks, underlined the need to bring those responsible to justice and reiterated the Council’s determination to fight all forms of terrorism (S/PRST/2008/32).

Lebanon: At press time, Council members were discussing a draft resolution introduced by France extending until 31 August 2009 the UNIFIL mandate. A meeting of UNIFIL troop contributors took place on 25 August (S/PV.5965) and at press time adoption of the resolution was scheduled for 27 August.

Burundi: On 26 August, the Council held a debate on the situation in Burundi. Members were briefed by the Executive Representative of the Secretary-General for Burundi Youssef Mahmoud; the Chair of the PBC country specific configuration on Burundi, Ambassador Anders Lidén of Sweden; and Ambassador Augustin Nsanze of Burundi (S/PV.5966). The Council subsequently met in private consultations on the matter, after which its president read a statement to the press.

DRC: On 26 August, the chairman of the DRC Sanctions Committee, Ambassador R.M. Marty M. Natalegawa (Indonesia), reported to the Council in private consultations on the latest report of the Group of Experts’ on sanctions in the DRC.

Working Methods: At press time, the Council was scheduled to hold an open debate on 27 August to discuss its working methods. The debate is being held in response to a request (S/2008/418) of the Group of Small Five or S5—Costa Rica, Jordan, Liechtenstein, Singapore and Switzerland. (Please see our Update Report of 12 August 2008 on working methods.)
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