March 2008 Monthly Forecast

Posted 28 February 2008
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Overview

Russia will hold the Council’s Presidency in March. Counter-terrorism will be an important thematic issue. The Council is due to renew the mandate of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) and to approve its new organisational plan. A debate is possible.

The situation in Afghanistan and the extension of and possible changes in the UNAMA mandate are likely to be discussed in an open debate on 12 March.

An open debate on the Middle East is also being considered.

A public meeting on the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to renew the sanctions and the mandate of the Group of Experts, rolled over in February until 31 March.

The Council will receive a briefing from the Chairman of the Iran Sanctions Committee. Also, if the Council fails to vote on the third Iran sanctions resolution in February, discussions on the draft tightening the sanctions regime may continue in March.

The Council is likely to hold consultations on:

  • Lebanon (to discuss the Secretary-General’s report on implementation of resolution 1701 and possibly also on a report on the establishment of the special tribunal)
  • Somalia (to discuss the report from the Secretariat’s strategic assessment and fact-finding mission, initially expected in February); and
  • Darfur (to discuss the quarterly Secretary-General’s report as well as developments related to the UNAMID deployment). The Council is also likely to be briefed by the Chairman of the Sudan Sanctions Committee.

At press time, it was uncertain whether the Council’s request for Secretariat reporting on Kenya in the 6 February presidential statement would result in a report or an oral briefing nor was it clear whether there would be a briefing by the Kenyan foreign minister, requested by the government in January.

Depending on developments on the ground, the Council may also hold consultations and/or briefings on the crisis in Chad and on the relocation of UNMEE in Ethiopia/Eritrea.

On Guinea-Bissau, the Council is expected to receive in March the PBC advice on the situation in the country, requested in December, and the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on UNOGBIS. It is unclear whether the Council will deliberate on these reports in March.

Regarding Liberia, the Council mayreview and discuss plans for the draw down of UNMIL based on the upcoming Secretary-General’s report.

Also possible are briefings on:

  • Myanmar by Ibrahim Gambari following his return from his trip to Myanmar and the region; and
  • Nepal, the Secretariat may brief on UNMIN’s activities leading up to the elections scheduled for 10 April.

The Council may also wish to express its support for the peace process in Uganda and possibly request a briefing from the Secretary-General’s envoy, Joaquim Chissano.

Also in March, the Council is likely to discuss plans for its visiting missions during 2008 and it will hold its annual retreat with the Secretary-General.
Full forecast