September 2007 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 August 2007
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments in the Council on other issues included:

Sudan: The Secretary-General’s monthly report on Darfur was published on 27 July, covering the period of January through July 2007 (S/2007/462 ).

Kosovo: A troika made up of the US, EU and Russia and set up by the Contact Group on Kosovo began in August. The troika was given a 120 day period to try to broker a solution to Kosovo’s status.  New talks between Kosovo and Serbia are expected by the end of August.  The troika is expected to report to the Secretary-General on 10 December.

Georgia: On 8 August, Georgia called for a meeting of the Council in connection with the Russian missile found in its territory on 6 August 2007 and associated claims of airspace violations by Russian aircraft (S/2007/480). On 9 and 16 August the Council had two informal briefings on the incident.  The Council is not expected to make a decision on the Georgian request until after it gets the results of on-going investigations. (Please see our 23 August Update Report for more details.)

Iraq: On 10 August, the Council adopted resolution 1770 extending UNAMI’s mandate for twelve months and delinking UNAMI from the resolution authorising the Multinational Forces in Iraq. UNAMI now has an expanded role and it is authorised to facilitate national dialogue and reconciliation and regional talks addressing border issues; energy and refugees; work in cooperation with the Iraqi government to provide essential services; coordinate the delivery of humanitarian assistance; and aid in the implementation of the Iraq Compact. On 16 August, the Council issued a press statement condemning the 14 August attacks in the Iraqi province of Ninawah (SC/9098 ).

Democratic Republic of Congo: On 10 August, the Security Council adopted resolution 1771 renewing both the DRC sanctions and the mandate of the Group of Experts until 15 February 2008.  Resolution 1771 was adopted after a short technical rollover of the previous resolution enabling Council members to consider recent deterioration of the situation in the east of the country as well as a request from the government to adjust the arms embargo.  The Council decided that the government be exempt from the embargo regarding arms and technical training and assistance being used by DRC army and police units, except in the districts of North and South Kivu and Ituri where only technical training and assistance was exempted.  States which supply arms and technical training and assistance are still required to notify the DRC Sanctions Committee in advance of delivery.   (Please see our 9 August Update Reportfor more details.)

Somalia: On 20 August the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1772 authorising the AU Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) to continue its operation for another six months.  In addition, the resolution requested a contingency planning report within thirty days from the Secretary-General on the possible deployment of a UN operation to replace AMISOM, but no timeline for such a transition was specified.  It called on all member states to comply fully with the arms embargo, exempting AMISOM and any assistance required for developing security sector institutions, and asked the Somalia Sanctions Committee to report within sixty days on how targeted measures could be strengthened.  The Council also stated its intention in resolution 1772 to take unspecified measures against those threatening the peace process, the transitional government, AMISOM, or undermining stability in Somalia or the region. 

Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa: An open debate was held in the Security Council on 28 August to discuss conflict prevention and resolution in Africa (S/PV.5735 and resumption 1). The debate was sponsored by Congo, the president of the Council in August and the current chair of the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa. Congo’s goal for the debate was to promote discussion of a comprehensive strategy on the issue which would utilise all existing mechanisms and actors toward achieving coherent action in the field of conflict prevention (S/2007/496).  A presidential statement was issued reaffirming the Council’s commitment to implement resolution 1625 on conflict prevention and asking for a report from the Secretary-General within sixty days on further options for implementation of 1625 (S/PRST/2007/31 ).  (Please see our 24 August Update Report for more details.) 

Full forecast

 

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