February 2017 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  Ukraine will have the presidency in February.  Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update since our January Forecast Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable Dates for February Read more

• The Security Council in 2016

  Overall, 2016 saw an increase in the number of decisions adopted by the Council. The number of resolutions increased and presidential statements decreased from the previous year. The number of resolutions adopted without consensus increased by two. Formal meetings increased by 11.   Read more

• In Hindsight: Resolution on Israeli Settlements

  The Council on 23 December 2016 issued a rare rebuke of Israel with the adoption ofresolution 2334, which condemned Israeli settlements as having no legal validity and constituting a major obstacle to a two-state solution. The Council’s consideration of the text on the issue, the first resolution adopted on Israel-Palestine in nearly eight years, elicited extreme pressure from the government of Israel and the incoming US administration on the Council member which had tabled the draft resolution, demonstrating how such pressure—external to the Council—can attempt to thwart Council initiatives even where consensus has been reached among its members. The story of resolution 2334, however, also demonstrates how elected members can play an instrumental role in galvanising the Council on even the most contentious issues. Read more

• Iraq

  In February, Special Representative of the Secretary-General Ján Kubiš will brief the Council on the latest Secretary-General’s report on the activities of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). His briefing is likely to focus on the security and humanitarian impact of the government’s military campaign to retake Mosul from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Read more

• UNRCCA (Central Asia)

  In early February, the Special Representative and head of UNRCCA, Petko Draganov, is due to brief Council members in consultations on the work of the centre. UNRCCA was established in 2007 for an open-ended time period. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In February, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, which expires on 12 March. The mandate of UNAMID expires on 30 June. Read more

• Libya

  In February, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Martin Kobler. Read more

• Côte d’Ivoire

  In February, the Council is expected to receive a briefing from the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI), Aïchatou Mindaoudou, on the latest and final report on UNOCI and recent developments.  Read more

• Central African Republic

  In February, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), Parfait Onanga-Anyanga, will brief the Council on the latest MINUSCA report. Read more

• Syria

  In February, Council members expect to receive the regular monthly briefings on the humanitarian and political situations in Syria. Council members will be following closely the intra-Syrian talks in Geneva, scheduled to be held in February. Read more

• Counter-Terrorism: Protection of Critical Infrastructure

  In February, Ukraine, as Council president, plans to hold an open debate on the protection of critical infrastructure against terrorist attacks. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin is expected to chair the session. Briefers are expected to include a high-level Secretariat official and representatives of specialised international organisations and research institutes, including the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the International Maritime Organisation. The Council may adopt a resolution to promote greater cooperation in addressing the terrorist threat to critical infrastructure. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  In February, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of UNIOGBIS, which expires on 28 February. Also, Modibo Touré, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative to Guinea-Bissau, is expected to brief the Council. In addition, it is likely that Ambassador Mauro Vieira (Brazil), the chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), will brief the Council. Read more

• Conflicts in Europe

  In February, the Council will hold a ministerial-level open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security, focusing on conflicts in Europe. Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine’s minister of foreign affairs, will chair the debate. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has been invited to brief. Other briefers, though not yet confirmed, could include the representatives of the EU and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). At press time, it did not appear that there would be a Council outcome. Read more

• Yemen

  In February, the Council is expected to adopt a resolution renewing the 2140 Yemen sanctions regime and the mandate of the 2140 Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts. Current sanctions measures expire on 26 February, and the mandate of the Panel expires on 27 March. Read more

• Kosovo

  In February, the Council is expected to hold its quarterly briefing on Kosovo. Zahir Tanin, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), will brief on recent developments and the latest Secretary-General’s report. Serbia will probably participate at a high level, while Kosovo is likely to be represented by its ambassador to the US. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In February, the chair of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sebastiano Cardi (Italy), who succeeded Ambassador Román Oyarzun (Spain) on 1 January, is due to brief Council members in consultations on the Committee’s work. Ahead of the briefing, the Sanctions Committee is scheduled to discuss the final report of its Panel of Experts under resolution 2276. In addition, Cardi is expected to convene a briefing open to all UN member states. Read more

• Burundi

  In February, the Council is expected to be briefed by the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General for Conflict Prevention, Jamal Benomar, on the Secretary-General’s report on the situation in Burundi.   Read more

• South Sudan

  In February, the Council will follow closely the situation in South Sudan. There may be a meeting to consider the Secretary-General’s 30-day assessment of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), including the deployment and future requirements of the Regional Protection Force (RPF), obstacles to setting up the force and impediments to UNMISS in carrying out its mandate. Given the gravity of the situation, other meetings could be scheduled on South Sudan during the month, depending on developments in the country. The UNMISS mandate expires on 15 December 2017.  Read more

• Lead Roles within the Council in 2017: Penholders and Chairs of Subsidiary Bodies

  The insert  in this Forecast contains an updated list of Security Council penholders and chairs of subsidiary bodies as of January 2017. The table does not contain an exhaustive list of all the agenda items of which the Council is... Read more