November 2006 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 October 2006
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    The Council will be following developments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) closely. A Council statement, particularly in the event of further violence following the 29 October election, is likely. The mandate of the EU mission in the DRC (EUFOR RD Congo) expires on 30 November. Renewal is not likely to be sought. But a serious deterioration of security conditions may lead to reconsideration. Read more

  • Overview

    In November the Council will be under the presidency of Peru. The Council mission to Afghanistan, although comprising only a selection of Council members, will inevitably divert a lot of energy and focus away from the work programme in New York.... Read more

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina

    The Council is expected to reauthorise the EU Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina (EUFOR) before the end of its mandate on 21 November. Read more

  • Upcoming Issues on Sanctions

    <November 2006 Chart in PDF Format • August 2006 Chart in PDF Format • July 2006 Chart in PDF Format Counter-Terrorism Committee (S/RES/1373) Resolutions S/RES/1373 (28 Sep 2001) S/RES/1377 (12 Nov 2001) S/RES/1456 (20 Jan 2003) S/RES/1535 (26 Mar 2004) S/RES/1566 (8 Oct 2004) S/RES/1624 (14 Sept 2005) Mandate Resolution 1373 established... Read more

  • Working Group on General Issues of Sanctions

    Given a challenging new mandate by the Council in December 2005 "to develop general recommendations on how to improve the effectiveness of United Nations sanctions", the Informal Working Group on General Issues of Sanctions, under the leadership of Greece, is expected to present its recommendations to the Council by the end of November. Read more

  • Ethiopia-Eritrea

    The Council is expected to review the situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea and options for the future of the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) before the end of November. (UNMEE's mandate expires on 31 January 2007 as required by resolution 1710). Read more

  • DPRK (North Korea)

    The Council may receive a briefing from the Sanctions Committee on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) on the steps taken by UN member states to implement resolution 1718. Resolution 1718 asks member states "to report to the Security Council" by 13 November on actions taken to implement the resolution. Read more

  • Children and Armed Conflict

    The Council is expected to discuss the report of the Secretary-General on Children and Armed Conflict as well as the results of an independent review of the monitoring and reporting mechanism. Although children and armed conflict has traditionally been discussed in open debates with active participation by non-Council members, there is a move this year to discuss the reports in a different format. Some sensitivity about the future use of the monitoring and reporting mechanism is expected. Read more

  • Afghanistan

    A Council delegation will travel to Afghanistan in mid-November. The mission will be headed by Ambassador Kenzo Oshima of Japan and will include Argentina, China, Denmark, France, Greece, Qatar, Russia, the UK and the US. During the week-long visit the mission will meet with Afghan officials, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in various locations in Kabul, northern and southern Afghanistan, and also Pakistani officials in Islamabad. Read more

  • Notable Dates

    Notable dates for November 2006. Read more

  • Côte d’Ivoire

    At press time, a draft resolution sponsored by France and extending the transitional period in Côte d'Ivoire is being discussed by Council members. Because the current transitional period ends on 31 October, the resolution is expected to be adopted sooner rather than later. Read more

  • Lebanon

    A report on the developments in the area under control of the UN Interim Mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is expected. Whether this report will also contain political elements related to the implementation of resolution 1701 remains to be seen. Council action is unlikely. Read more

  • Darfur/Sudan

    The impasse over the transition in Darfur from the AU force to a UN peacekeeping operation is likely to continue to generate Council discussion in November. But no formal action is expected at least until the results are known of diplomatic initiatives vis-à-vis Sudan and the AU Peace and Security Council high-level meeting, scheduled for the end of November. Read more

  • Somalia

    The Secretary-General's Special Representative for Somalia, François Lonseny Fall, is expected to brief the Security Council in November. The wider regional implications of involvement in Somalia by Ethiopia and Eritrea are likely to play an increasing role. A presidential statement directed at Ethiopia and Eritrea is an option. Read more

  • Iran

    The five permanent members of the Council are now discussing an EU3 (France, Germany and the UK) proposal for sanctions against Iran. P5 plus Germany discussions of how to deal with Iran's non-compliance with resolution 1696 are likely to be prolonged and difficult.  Read more

  • Aide Memoire

    Important matters pending for the Council are: The Secretary-General’s proposals for a long term solution in Lebanon under resolution 1701 are still awaited. Recommendations on the status of the Sheb’a Farms have not been submitted yet. The Secretary-General’s report on the protection... Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update of Security Council Activity in October 2006. Read more

Download Complete Forecast: PDF