November 2006 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 October 2006
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Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in our October Forecast are covered in the relevant briefs in this issue.  However, other interesting Council developments in October included:

  • Appointment of a new Secretary-General: Ban Ki-moon of South Korea, was appointed as the next Secretary-General following a selection process in the Council which ended more quickly than most observers had predicted.  He will begin his term on 1 January 2007 (S/RES/1715).
  • Security Council Election: Four of the five Council seats for the 2007-08 term were decided: Belgium, Indonesia, Italy and South Africa.  At press time the deadlock between Guatemala and Venezuela continues and a compromise candidate to fill the Latin American & Caribbean seat has yet to emerge.  Voting will resume on 31 October.
  • Liberia: The Council reviewed Liberian sanctions on 20 October concluding that timber sanctions would not be reinstated due to the Liberian government’s passage of required forestry legislation.  However, diamond sanctions were maintained with a review expected by the end of the year (SC/8856).
  • Peacebuilding Commission: The PBC had its first round of country-specific meetings in October and recommended both Sierra Leone and Burundi for support from the Peacebuilding Fund.  Meanwhile, the Council, in acknowledgement of Burundi’s need for continued support, adopted resolution 1719 on 25 October authorising the mandate of a new UN Integrated Office in Burundi which will commence on 1 January 2007 after the current peacekeeping mission’s mandate expires.
  • Women, Peace and Security: On 26 October the Council held its annual debate on Women, Peace and Security marking the sixth anniversary of the adoption of resolution 1325.  In a presidential statement the Council noted progress in women’s participation in peacebuilding and requested recommendations from the Secretary-General to promote more effective implementation of resolution 1325 moving forward  (S/PRST/2006/42).
  • Great Lakes: The mandate of the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for the Great Lakes Region was extended to 31 December, although clearly with reluctance.  The Council will consider Tanzania’s request to extend the mandate to 31 March 2007.  This decision will hinge on the progress made in organising the second Great Lakes summit, tentatively scheduled for 14-15 December in Nairobi (S/2006/811 and S/2006/812).
  • Western Sahara: The Secretary-General’s report recommended a six-month mandate renewal and direct negotiations between Morocco and Frente Polisario with no pre-conditions (S/2006/817).  At press time, the Council was expected to renew MINURSO’s mandate on 31 October.
  • Central African Republic: The Secretary General’s latest report highlighted the security situation on the country’s border with Chad and Sudan and noted that the government had requested BONUCA’s renewal for another year upon its 31 December expiry (S/2006/828). On 30 October the Council will hold a private debate on the CAR.
  • Guinea-Bissau: The Council’s 4 October consultations on Guinea-Bissau covered the latest report by the Secretary-General which recommended a slight revision to and a one-year extension of the UNOGBIS mandate (S/2006/783).  The current mandate expires on 31 December.  The Secretary-General named Shola Omoregie (Nigeria) as his representative in Guinea-Bissau on 3 October.
  • GeorgiaResolution 1716 renewed UNOMIG’s mandate until 15 April 2007.
  • Timor-Leste: The Council held consultations on 27 October on the arrangements between UNMIT and the Australian-led international forces. The report of the Special Commission of Inquiry will also be on Council members’ minds.

Full forecast


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