September 2006 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 August 2006
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  • Burundi

    The Council is expected to consider the establishment of a United Nations integrated office in Burundi to take over from the current peacekeeping mission when its mandate expires on 31 December, as recommended by the Secretary-General in the addendum to his June report on the United Nations Operation in Burundi, published on 14 August. Read more

  • Liberia

    The Council is expected to extend the mandate of UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) at existing force levels and to provide security for the Special Court for Sierra Leone (SCSL), probably for six months. Read more

  • Aide Memoire

    Important matters pending for the Council are: In October 2004 the Council, in a presidential statement, requested a report on the practical steps the UN could take to strengthen its action in support for transitional justice and the rule of law... Read more

  • Iran

    The report from the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 31 August assessing Iran's compliance with resolution 1696 will provide a focus for the informal contacts which have already begun among the P5 plus Germany (P5 plus 1) on how to respond to the 22 August Iranian counter-proposals. Read more

  • Status Update

    Status Update of Security Council Activity in August 2006. Read more

  • Overview

    Greece will have the Presidency of the Council in a month when the Council will have to manage not only a large number of mandate renewals (ten), but also high profile and politically charged issues such as the selection of the... Read more

  • Kosovo

    In the third week of September the Secretary-General's Special Envoy for the Future Status Process for Kosovo, Martti Ahtisaari, is expected to brief the Council on the Kosovo status discussions at a closed meeting with some ministerial-level participation. Read more

  • Lebanon

    The Security Council will take up the Secretary-General's proposals, requested in resolution 1701, for implementing the Taif Accords and resolutions 1559 and 1680 concerning the disbanding and disarmament of militias in Lebanon, as well as on the delineation of the Lebanese border, in particular the Sheb'a Farms area. Read more

  • Review of Security Council Mandates

    In the July 2006 Forecast we outlined the criteria established by the Security Council's Ad Hoc Committee in its review of Security Council mandates. At the end of June, consensus had been reached to recommend that the Secretary-General phase out the vacant position of Special Envoy for Ethiopia and Eritrea. Read more

  • Sierra Leone

    The Secretary-General's report on the United Nations Integrated Office in Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL), scheduled for 31 August, is the first since the Council decided to refer Sierra Leone to the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC). It is expected that the Council will delay consultations until the PBC has had its first country-specific meeting on Sierra Leone, which was originally scheduled for early September, but may now be postponed to early October. Read more

  • Iraq

    No formal Council action is expected. However, the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) Acting Executive Chairman, Demetrius Perricos, will brief the Council following the quarterly report of the Commission due 1 September; the quarterly report of the Secretary-General on the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) is due by 8 September; and the Council will be briefed by US Ambassador John Bolton on the operations of the Multinational Force (MNF). Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    The Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC), which expires on 30 September. The issue of the long-term future of MONUC will linger in the background, but is unlikely to be seriously addressed until after the presidential run-off elections in October. A simple extension of the mandate seems likely, but it is still unclear for how long. Read more

  • Ethiopia/Eritrea

    A rollover of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) mandate is expected. The report of the Secretary-General on UNMEE is expected in mid-September.In addition, the Peacekeeping Operation (PKO) Working Group under Japan's chairmanship may discuss UNMEE before the expiry of its mandate on 30 September. Read more

  • Côte d’Ivoire

    The next Secretary-General's report is expected to confirm that there has been insufficient progress in implementing the roadmap, established by the Council, for the elections to be held as scheduled on 31 October. Read more

  • Somalia

    The Council may moderate the tilt which it made in early August in support of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). In the absence of an established peace process involving consent from all parties, it seems unlikely at this stage that the Council will support the proposed African Union/Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) mission. Read more

  • Sudan

    At the time of writing, it seems that a draft resolution establishing the mandate in Darfur for the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) and authorising UN assistance to the AU Mission to the Sudan (AMIS) will be adopted by 1 September. China, Russia and Qatar are uncomfortable with passing the resolution without prior consent from Sudan. Read more

  • Notable Dates

    Notable dates for September 2006. Read more

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