September 2006 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 August 2006
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Sierra Leone

Expected Council Action
The Secretary-General’s report on the United Nations Integrated Office in Sierra Leone (UNIOSIL), scheduled for 31 August, is the first since the Council decided to refer Sierra Leone to the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC). It is expected that the Council will delay consultations until the PBC has had its first country-specific meeting on Sierra Leone, which was originally scheduled for early September, but may now be postponed to early October.

The mandate of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) to provide security for the Special Court for Sierra Leone will expire on 30 September.  Council members are likely to renew it in the context of discussions on UNMIL’s mandate. (See our brief on Liberia in this issue.)

Key Recent Developments
The PBC has had a number of preliminary discussions on Sierra Leone and is likely to have a country-specific meeting in early October.

Charles Taylor has been transferred to the Netherlands, where he will be tried in a special outpost of the Special Court for Sierra Leone located at the International Criminal Court.  The United Kingdom has agreed to provide prison facilities after his trial if he is convicted.

Key Issues
The key issue for the Council will be whether the security situation on the ground remains stable. Provided the current calm continues, the Council is likely to prefer leaving the remaining issues in the hands of the PBC.

Underlying Problems
The Secretary-General’s April report mentions a number of potentially destabilising factors which include corruption, high unemployment rates and increasing tension in areas along the Sierra Leone-Guinea border.  In light of the upcoming elections in 2007, the elimination of corruption in the police force is also likely to be a critical point.

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UN Documents

 Selected Security Council Resolutions
  • S/RES/1688 (30 June 2006) requested the Secretary-General to assist in the transfer of Charles Taylor to the Special Court’s special outpost in the Netherlands.
  • S/RES/1626 (19 September 2005) mandated UNMIL to provide security for the Special Court.
  • S/RES/1620 (31 August 2005) established UNIOSIL.
  • S/RES/1315 (14 August 2000) called for the Special Court for Sierra Leone.
 Selected Secretary-General’s Report
  • S/2006/269 (28 April 2006) was the first report of the Secretary-General on UNIOSIL.
 Selected Presidential Statement
  • S/PRST/2006/38 (9 August 2006) was on peace consolidation in West Africa.
 Peacebuilding Commission
  • PBC/OC/1/2 (21 June 2006) was a letter from the president of the Security Council to the Secretary-General referring Sierra Leone to the Peacebuilding Commission.

Historical Background
For a complete historical background, please refer to our April 2006 Forecast.

Other Relevant Facts

 UNIOSIL Executive Representative of the Secretary-General
  Victor da Silva Ângelo (Portugal)
 Size and Composition of Mission

Total budgeted staff of 298, comprising 82 international staff, 192 local staff and 24 UN volunteers

  Estimated resource requirements for 2006 are $23.3 million
  1 January 2006 to present, current mandate expires 1 January 2007

Useful Additional Sources


Full forecast

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