July 2023 Monthly Forecast

Posted 2 July 2023
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Status Update since our June Forecast

DPRK (North Korea)

On 2 June, the Council convened for an opening briefing on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) (S/PV.9336). Albania, Ecuador, France, Japan, Malta, the UK, and the US requested the meeting after the DPRK attempted to launch a military reconnaissance satellite on 31 May. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed and the Republic of Korea (ROK) participated in the meeting under rule 39 and 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure respectively.

UNOCA (Central Africa)

On 5 June, the Security Council held a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report (S/2023/389) on the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) and the implementation of the UN’s regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) (S/PV.9338). The Council was briefed by Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNOCA Abdou Abarry, President of the Commission of the Economic Community of Central African States Gilberto da Piedade Veríssimo, and Marie Tamoifo, Founder and Regional Coordinator of the Network of Young Leaders for Sustainable Management of Central African Forest Ecosystems.

Security Council Elections

On 6 June, the 77th session of the UN General Assembly held elections for membership of the Security Council. The five seats available for election in 2023, according to the regular distribution among regions, were: two seats for the African Group; one seat for the Group of Asia and the Pacific Small Island Developing States (Asia-Pacific Group); one seat for the Latin American and Caribbean Group (GRULAC); and one seat for the Eastern European Group. Among these, only the Eastern European Group had contested elections, with Belarus running against Slovenia. After the first round of voting, the following members were elected for the 2024-2025 term: Algeria, Guyana, the Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone and Slovenia.

Iraq (UNITAD)

On 7 June, the Security Council received a briefing (S/PV.9341) from Christian Ritscher, the Special Adviser and head of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL in Iraq and the Levant (UNITAD). Iraq also participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Cooperation between the UN and the League of Arab States

On 8 June, the Security Council convened a briefing on cooperation between the UN and the League of Arab States (LAS) (S/PV.9343). The meeting, which was one of the signature events of the June Council Presidency of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was chaired by Khalifa Shaheen Almarar, Minister of State at the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. The briefers were: Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo; LAS Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit; and Dr. Omnia El Omrani, who was the Youth Envoy for the President of the 27th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 27), held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt in 2022.

International Criminal Tribunals 

On 12 June, the Council held its semi-annual debate (S/PV.9344) on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). The IRMCT’s president, Judge Graciela Gatti Santana, and its chief prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, briefed. They met with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals prior to the debate. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Rwanda, and Serbia participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Climate Change, Peace and Security

On 13 June, as one of the signature events of its presidency, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) convened a ministerial-level open debate on climate change, peace and security under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9345). Mariam Almheiri, the UAE’s Minister of Climate Change and Environment, chaired the meeting. The briefers were: Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Juan Manuel Santos—former President of Colombia, Nobel Peace Laureate, and a member of The Elders—and Salma Kadry, Climate, Peace and Security Expert at the Consortium of International Agricultural Research.

Human Fraternity in Promoting and Sustaining Peace

On 14 June, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) convened a high-level briefing on “The Values of Human Fraternity in Promoting and Sustaining Peace” (S/PV.9346). This was one of the signature events of the UAE’s June presidency. UAE Minister of State Noura bint Mohammed Al Kaabi chaired the meeting, at which the briefers were: Secretary-General António Guterres; Sheikh Ahmed Muhammed Ahmed Al-Ṭayyeb, the Grand Imam of al-Azhar and Chairman of the Muslim Council of Elders; Archbishop Paul Richard Gallagher, Secretary for Relations with States and International Organisations of the Holy See; and Latifa Ibn Ziaten, the Founder and President of Association IMAD pour la Jeunesse et la Paix.

Following the briefing, the Security Council adopted resolution 2686 on tolerance and international peace and security, which was co-authored by the UAE and the UK. Although the resolution was adopted unanimously, several Council members delivered explanations of vote (S/PV.9347). France, for instance, regretted that the resolution was selective and “too weak” on such issues as freedom of expression, human rights, women’s rights, sexual orientation and gender identity, adding that it contained “a conception of extremism which is potentially liberticide”.

UNDOF (Golan)

Council members held consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) on 15 June. Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari briefed. On 29 June, the Security Council adopted resolution 2689 renewing the UNDOF mandate for six months.

Libya

On 19 June, the Security Council held an open briefing (S/PV.9351) followed by closed consultations on Libya. Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Abdoulaye Bathily briefed the Council on the latest political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country. Dr. Abeir Imneina, Head of the Washm Center for Women’s Studies in Libya, also briefed the Council on the challenges faced by Libyan civil society organisations, human rights defenders, and women. Additionally, the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Kimihiro Ishikane (Japan), presented the periodic report on the committee’s activities.

 Mali

On 16 June, the Council held an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Mali (S/PV.9350). Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Mali and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) El-Ghassim Wane briefed, presenting the Secretary-General’s 1 June report on Mali (S/2023/402). Speaking at the session, Mali’s Transitional Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Abdoulaye Diop called for the withdrawal of MINUSMA “without delay”. On 30 June, the Council adopted resolution 2690, which terminated the mandate of the MINUSMA as of 30 June and requested the UN to immediately start on 1 July the transfer of its tasks and the orderly and safe drawdown and withdrawal of its personnel, with the objective of completing this process by 31 December.

Council members issued a press statement on 9 June condemning an attack against MINUSMA near Ber, in the region of Timbuktu, which killed one peacekeeper from Burkina Faso and injured seven others (SC/15316). (Several days later, a second peacekeeper died from his injuries.)

 South Sudan

The Council held a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) on 20 June (S/PV.9353). The briefers were: Special Representative of the Secretary-General for South Sudan and head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Nicholas Haysom, Interim Chairperson of the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) Major General (Retired) Charles Tai Gituai, and Marc Impagliazzo, President of the Community of Sant’Egidio.

 Afghanistan

On 21 June, the Council convened for an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Afghanistan (S/PV.9354). Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Roza Otunbayeva and Shabana Basij-Rasikh, the Co-Founder and President of the School of Leadership, Afghanistan, briefed. Head and Representative of OCHA in Geneva and Director of the Coordination Division Ramesh Rajasingham also briefed the Council via videoconference during the closed consultations. Rajasingham briefed on behalf of Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths pursuant to resolution 2615 of 22 December 2021, which established a humanitarian exception to the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions regime and requested that the Emergency Relief Coordinator brief the Council on the delivery of humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan every six months. Afghanistan, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan also participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.

Gulf of Guinea Piracy

On 21 June, the Security Council convened for a briefing on maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea to mark the ten-year anniversary of the “Yaoundé Code of Conduct” that created the Gulf of Guinea’s maritime security architecture (S/PV.9355). The Council heard briefings from Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, President of the Commission of the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) Gilberto Da Piedade Verissimo, President of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission Omar Alieu Touray, and Executive Secretary of the Gulf of Guinea Commission (GGC) Jose Mba Abeso.

Somalia

On 22 June, the Security Council held a briefing and consultations on the situation in Somalia (S/PV.9356). The UAE’s Minister of State in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Shakhboot Bin Nahyan Al Nahyan, chaired the meeting. The briefers were the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia and head of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), Catriona Laing; the Special Representative of the Chairperson of the AU Commission (SRCC) for Somalia and head of the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), Ambassador Mohamed El-Amine Souef; and Cindy McCain, the newly appointed Executive Director of WFP. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud attended the meeting and called for the lifting of the arms embargo imposed on his country under the 751 Al-Shabaab Sanctions regime. On 27 June, the Security Council adopted resolution 2687, extending the mandate of ATMIS for six months until 31 December.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

On 26 June, the Security Council held a briefing and closed consultations on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), including the work of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) (S/PV.9358). Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee briefed the Council on the latest developments in DRC and the activities of the mission. The DRC and Rwanda representatives participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. On 27 June, the Security Council adopted resolution 2688, extending the 1533 DRC sanctions regime until 1 July 2024 and the mandate of the Group of Experts assisting the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee until 1 August 2024.

 

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