July 2023 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  In July, the UK will hold the presidency of the Security Council.      Read more

• In Hindsight: Selecting Subsidiary Body Chairs

  With the Security Council elections behind them, incoming Council members—Algeria, Guyana, the Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, and Slovenia—are now starting to discuss the allocation of the chairs and vice-chairs of the subsidiary bodies. For many years this process was shrouded in secrecy, with the permanent members deciding how to allocate these positions, often with minimal consultation. Read more

• Status Update since our June Forecast

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• Children and Armed Conflict

  In July, the Security Council will hold its annual open debate on children and armed conflict. Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict Virginia Gamba is expected to present the Secretary-General’s annual report on children and armed conflict, which was made public on 27 June. Other speakers are likely to include UNICEF Deputy Executive Director for programmes Omar Abdi and a child civil society briefer. Read more

• Iran

  In July, the Council is expected to convene a briefing on the Secretary-General’s biannual report on the implementation of resolution 2231 of 20 July 2015, which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme. The Council will also receive reports from the Joint Commission and the Council’s 2231 facilitator, Ambassador Vanessa Frazier (Malta). The Joint Commission was established to oversee the implementation of the JCPOA and comprises the current parties to the agreement: China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and Iran. Frazier, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, and a representative of the EU in its capacity as coordinator of the Joint Commission are expected to brief the Council.   Read more

• Haiti

  In July, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH). The current mandate expires on 15 July.  In addition, Special Representative and head of BINUH María Isabel Salvador will brief the Council on recent developments in the country and the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on BINUH. The chair of the 2653 Haiti Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Michel Xavier Biang (Gabon), and a civil society representative are also expected to brief.  Read more

• Yemen

  In July, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Yemen with UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg. A representative of OCHA and the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen David Gressly are also expected to brief. The head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), Major General Michael Beary, is expected to brief during the consultations. The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of UNMHA, which expires on 14 July. Read more

• Syria

  In July, the Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution extending the authorisation for the Syria cross-border aid mechanism, prior to its expiry on 10 July. The Security Council will also hold its monthly meetings on the political and humanitarian situations in Syria and on the use of chemical weapons in the country.   Read more

• Cyprus

  In July, Security Council members are expected to receive a briefing in consultations on the situation in Cyprus. Special Representative and head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) Colin Stewart is expected to brief. Read more

• Colombia

  In July, the Security Council will hold its quarterly meeting on Colombia. Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu is expected to brief on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission, which covers the period from 27 March to 26 June. A woman civil society representative is also expected to brief. Read more

• Sudan

  In July, the Security Council will receive the semi-annual briefing of ICC Prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan on the ICC’s Darfur-related activities.  Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  On 14 July, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its annual open debate on conflict-related sexual violence, which this year is titled “Promoting Implementation of Security Council Resolutions on Conflict-Related Sexual Violence”. The UK Minister of State for the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and the UN and the UK Prime Minister’s Special Representative for Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict, Lord Ahmad of Wimbledon, will chair the meeting. Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Patten and two civil society representatives are the anticipated briefers. Read more

• Ukraine

  In July, the Security Council will hold a briefing on the situation in Ukraine. UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is expected to chair the meeting. The Council may hold additional meetings on the country, depending on developments on the ground. Read more

• Artificial Intelligence

  In July, the UK is planning to organise a high-level briefing on “Artificial Intelligence (AI): Opportunities and Risks for International Peace and Security” under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item. Read more

• Lebanon

  In July, Council members expect to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701. Adopted in 2006, resolution 1701 called for a cessation of hostilities between the Shi’a group Hezbollah and Israel. Briefings are expected from Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka and Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix. Read more

• The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

  In July, the Security Council will hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari is the expected briefer. Read more

• West Africa and the Sahel

  In July, the Security Council will hold its biannual briefing on West Africa and the Sahel. The Special Representative and head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), Leonardo Santos Simão, is expected to brief. Read more

• Central African Republic

  In July, the Security Council is expected to extend the sanctions imposed on the Central African Republic (CAR), which expire at the end of the month, and renew the mandate of the Panel of Experts supporting the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee, which expires on 31 August. Read more