November 2019 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 October 2019
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update since our October Forecast

Counter-Terrorism

On 1 October, the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee met to discuss a recent visit to Syria by the Monitoring Team assisting it. On 11 October, the committee met with the Monitoring Team for a quarterly briefing and a report on its recent country visit to the DRC. On 23 October, the Counter-Terrorism Committee met to discuss recent country visits to the Maldives, the Philippines and Ghana by the Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate.

Youth, Peace and Security

On 2 October, the Council held a debate under the agenda item “Peace and Security in Africa” with the focus on “Mobilising the Youth towards Silencing the Guns by 2020”. The briefers were the Special Adviser on Africa to the Secretary-General, Bience Gawanas; the AU Special Envoy on Youth, Aya Chebbi; Hafsa Ahmed, co-founder and chairperson of the organisation Naweza in Kenya; and Victor Ochen, a youth activist from Uganda. At press time, the adoption of a presidential statement by the end of October was possible.

Afghanistan

On 2 October, Council members issued a press statement on the 28 September presidential elections. On 21 October, Council members issued a press statement condemning in the strongest terms a terrorist attack on 18 October in the Haska Mena district in Nangarhar Province. The attack resulted in the death of at least 60 people and almost 60 injured.

Great Lakes Region

On 3 October, Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Great Lakes Region Huang Xia briefed the Council on developments in the Great Lakes Region and the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the DRC and the Region, followed by consultations. On 8 October, Council members issued a press statement on developments in the region, particularly on the DRC (SC/13978).

Haiti

Council members met under “any other business” on 3 October to discuss the political unrest in Haiti. At that meeting, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of MINUJUSTH Helen La Lime briefed on Haiti’s political and economic challenges. On 15 October the Council held a debate on MINUJUSTH and heard a briefing from Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix. Norway also briefed in its capacity as president of ECOSOC about the work of the Ad Hoc Advisory Group on Haiti. The delegations of the EU and Haiti also participated. The next day, 16 October, MINUJUSTH transitioned to the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH). La Lime was appointed as head of BINUH on October 14.

Sudan (Darfur)

On 3 October, Ambassador Joanna Wronecka (Poland), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, provided the quarterly briefing to Council members on the committee’s work.  On 17 October, the Council was briefed on the special report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission and the Secretary-General on UNAMID by Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix. He told the Council that the Sudanese government has requested more time to formulate its needs for a possible follow-on mechanism to UNAMID and recommended that for an initial period of six months, which coincides with the anticipated duration of peace talks, UNAMID would retain the same ceiling of uniformed personnel.  At press time, the Council was expected to adopt a resolution extending UNAMID’s mandate until 31 October 2020.

Mali

On 8 October, the Council received a briefing (S/PV.8636) via video-teleconference from Mahamat Saleh Annadif, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), who presented the Secretary-General’s latest report on Mali. Ambassador José Singer (Dominican Republic), as chair of the Mali 2374 Sanctions Committee, briefed on the work of the committee. Consultations followed the public session. The next day, Council members issued a press statement on the implementation of the Agreement on Peace and Reconciliation in Mali and the overall security situation.

South Sudan

On 8 October, the Security Council adopted a presidential statement on the implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) of 12 September 2018. The statement welcomes initial progress implementing the R-ARCSS and calls on the parties to expedite the process of implementing transitional security arrangements and to continue consultation on the issue of the number and boundaries of states.

Children and Armed Conflict

The Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict met on 8 October and 15 October to discuss its conclusions on the Secretary-General’s report on children and armed conflict in Yemen. It held a formal meeting on 14 October for a video teleconference discussion with the Sudan Country Task Force on Monitoring and Reporting ahead of the renewal of UNAMID (Darfur).

DPRK (North Korea)

On 9 October, Council members discussed the 2 October submarine-launched ballistic missile test conducted by DPRK under “any other business”. France, Germany and the UK requested the meeting, citing serious concern over the missile test. These members, together with Belgium, Germany, Poland, and incoming Council member Estonia, made a joint statement at the media stakeout afterwards condemning the DPRK’s provocative actions. Stressing that the missile test constitutes a violation of Security Council resolutions, these members called on the DPRK to abandon the development of weapons of mass destruction.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

On 9 October, the Council held a briefing on MONUSCO. Leila Zerrougui, Special Representative and head of MONUSCO, briefed. A DRC representative also took part in the meeting. Afterwards Council members met in consultations. Following the meeting, Council members released a press statement on 14 October. In the statement, members welcomed the new coalition government as well as President Félix Tshisekedi’s commitment to national unity, rule of law, and fighting against corruption. Council members also called for increased state presence in the eastern DRC in order to consolidate peace and address continued insecurity. The statement furthermore reiterated Council members’ overall concern about the humanitarian situation, including the ongoing Ebola outbreak.

Colombia

On 10 October the Council received a briefing on Colombia from the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia, Carlos Ruiz Massieu, on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on Colombia and the most recent developments. The briefing was followed by consultations. On 15 October, Council members issued a press statement, reiterating their unanimous support for the peace process in Colombia while deploring a recent announcement by a group of former fighters that they would return to armed activity. The statement expressed concerns about the killings of community and social leaders as well as candidates running in the 27 October local and departmental elections. In the statement, members reaffirmed their commitment to working closely with Colombia in achieving progress in the implementation of the peace agreement.

Guinea-Bissau

On 10 October, Council members held consultations on Guinea-Bissau ahead of next month’s 24 November presidential election. Special Representative and head of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) Rosine Sori-Coulibaly briefed via video-teleconference. On 16 October, Council members issued a press statement, reiterating “the imperative need for the presidential election to be held on 24 November 2019”.  At press time, Council members were expected to meet on 30 October to discuss Guinea-Bissau under “any other business” following President José Mário Vaz’s dismissal of the government on 28 October. From 27 to 30 October, the Chair of the 2048 Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Anatolio Ndong Mba, (Equatorial Guinea) led a committee visiting mission to Guinea-Bissau.

Sudan/South Sudan

On 15 October, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2492 extending UNISFA’s support to the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM) until 15 November. On 24 October, the Council was briefed on the Secretary-General’s most recent report by Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and the Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, Parfait Onanga-Anyanga (the latter via video teleconference). Lacroix referred to the “unprecedented opportunity” to resolve the border‑related issues between Sudan and South Sudan, adding that the two countries need to resume direct talks immediately to resolve the final status of Abyei.

Western Sahara

On 16 October, Council members met in consultations to discuss MINURSO before its mandate’s expiry on 31 October. Special Representative Colin Stewart discussed the fragile peace and ongoing humanitarian challenges in the region. At press time, the Council was expected to adopt a resolution on 30 October renewing MINURSO’s mandate for 12 months.

UNDOF (Golan Heights)

On 16 October, Council members were briefed in consultations by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix on the latest 90-day report by the Secretary-General on UNDOF.

Israel/Palestine

On 28 October, the Council held its quarterly open debate on Israel/Palestine. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov opened his statement by saying that there had been no progress towards the realisation of a two-state solution. He said that while there were severe humanitarian problems, the core of the crisis is political and there must be a political solution. The Minister of International Relations and Cooperation of South Africa, Naledi Pandor, presided over the open debate (S/PV.8648).

Women, Peace and Security

On 29 October, the Council held its annual open debate on women, peace and security, under the theme “Towards the successful implementation of the women, peace and security agenda: moving from commitments to accomplishments in preparation for the commemoration of the twentieth anniversary of Security Council resolution 1325 (2000)”. The briefers were UN Secretary-General António Guterres; UN Women Executive Director Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka; the AU Special Envoy for Women, Peace and Security Bineta Diop; Lina Ekomo, a former foreign minister of the Central African Republic on behalf of FEMWISE (the Network of African Women in Conflict Prevention and Mediation); and Alaa Salah, a civil society activist and community leader from Sudan. Resolution 2493 was adopted unanimously.

Council Visiting Mission

From 18 to 23 October, a Security Council visiting mission went to South Sudan and Ethiopia, via Kenya. Members travelled to South Sudan on 20 October, to push for implementation of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), in particular, the formation of a transitional government of national unity by the 12 November deadline of the pre-transition phase of the peace accord. Members met with representatives of the UN Mission in South Sudan and UN Country Team, and civil society organisations. They also met with President Salva Kiir, before a public meeting with the other signatory parties and stakeholders to the peace agreement, including opposition leader Riek Machar. The mission co-leads, South Africa and the US, held a press conference at the mission’s conclusion.

In Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Council members held their 4th annual informal meeting with AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) on 21 October, and 13th annual joint consultative meeting with the PSC on 22 October. The informal meeting focused on the AU’s “Silencing the Guns in Africa by 2020” initiative, and the modalities for joint field missions of the two Councils. For the consultative meeting, the Councils discussed South Sudan, the Sahel, Libya, the Central African Republic and under “any other business”, Guinea-Bissau.  Members also received briefings at the UN Office to the AU (UNOAU) from Special Representative and head of the UNOAU Hanna Tetteh, and the Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, Parfait Onanga-Anyanga. At AU headquarters, Council members met with AU Commissioner Moussa Faki. They also met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Burundi

On 30 October, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy Michel Kafando and Ambassador Jürg Lauber (Switzerland), the chair of the Burundi configuration of the PBC, briefed the Council on the Secretary-General’s report on Burundi.

International Court of Justice

At press time, the Council was expecting to receive on 31 October the annual briefing by President of the International Court of Justice Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf in a private meeting.

Cooperation between the UN and regional organisations

On 30 October, the Council considered the Secretary-General’s annual report on the UN-AU partnership on issues of peace and security in Africa (S/PV. 8650). At press time, the expected briefers were Special Representative to the AU and head of the UN Office to the AU Hanna Tetteh and AU Peace and Security Commissioner Smaïl Chergui (both via VTC).

Kosovo

At press time, the Council was expecting to hold on 31 October its third and final regular briefing on Kosovo for the year. Special Representative and head of UNMIK Zahir Tanin was expected to brief the Council on the latest Secretary-General’s report and recent developments.