October 2019 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2019
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Status Update since our September Forecast

Counter-Terrorism

On 5 September, the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee met to discuss a de-listing request from the Office of the Ombudsperson and reports by the Monitoring Team. The Counterterrorism Committee met on 19 September for its monthly formal meeting.

Peacekeeping Operations

On 9 September, the Security Council held a debate on peacekeeping reform, which featured a briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix. Among other issues, Lacroix spoke of the efforts of UN peace operations to help facilitate the pursuit of political solutions, the importance of prioritised and sequenced mandates, and initiatives to improve the safety of peacekeepers. In addition to Council members, Bangladesh, Canada, Egypt, Ethiopia, Fiji, India, Italy, Morocco, Nepal, Pakistan, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone and the United Republic of Tanzania participated in the meeting in accordance with Rule 37 of the provisional rules of procedure.

Guinea-Bissau

On 10 September, the Security Council held a briefing on Guinea-Bissau. Council members were considering the Secretary-General’s latest report on developments in the country and the activities of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau. Assistant Secretary-General for Africa Bintou Keita and the chair of the Peacebuilding Commission’s Guinea-Bissau configuration, Ambassador Mauro Vieira (Brazil), briefed. The following day, on 11 September, the Guinea-Bissau 2048 Sanctions Committee met to discuss the Secretary-General’s 29 August report on Progress made with regard to the stabilization and restoration of constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau.

Security Council Annual Report to the General Assembly

On 10 September, the Security Council president, Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia (Russia), presented to the General Assembly the 2018 annual report of the Security Council. The Assembly discussed the report in two sessions (on 10 and 12 September) with 27 speakers, including 14 permanent representatives, participating.

Afghanistan

On 10 September, the Council held a debate on Afghanistan, considering the latest Secretary-General’s report on UNAMA. Tadamichi Yamamoto, the Special Representative for Afghanistan and head of UNAMA; Ambassador Dian Triansyah Djani (Indonesia), chair of the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee; and Yuri Fedotov, head of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, briefed. On 11 September, the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee met in informal consultations and heard briefings by Special Representative Yamamoto, along with Afghanistan’s permanent representative to the UN, Ambassador Adela Raz. On 17 September, Council members unanimously adopted resolution 2489, renewing the mandate of UNAMA until 17 September 2020. On 19 September, Council members issued a press statement condemning in the strongest terms the “continuing high number of attacks” in Afghanistan. Those attacks included several claimed by the Taliban: in Qalat, Zabul Province, on 19 September, resulting in at least 20 people killed and more than 95 people injured; in Kabul; and in Charikar, Parwan Province, on 17 September, resulting in at least 38 civilians killed and more than 80 civilians injured.

UNOCA (Central Africa)

On 12 September, the Council adopted a presidential statement on the Central African Region, expressing its full support for UNOCA and noting the recommendations of the Secretary General’s strategic review regarding the scope of UNOCA’s mandate and activities.

Children and Armed Conflict

The Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict met on 16 September for the introduction of the report on children and armed conflict in Afghanistan.

South Sudan

On 18 September, Special Representative for South Sudan and head of UNMISS David Shearer briefed the Security Council on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the situation in South Sudan and the Secretary-General’s report on “future planning for the protection of civilians sites” in South Sudan, as requested in resolution 2459. Consultations followed the briefing. “The peace process remains precarious, but progress is being made,” Shearer said, emphasising that progress depends on sustained goodwill between the parties and the attention of international partners, including the Intergovernmental Authority on Development and the AU.

Iraq

On 20 September, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2490, renewing the mandate of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) until 21 September 2020.

Regional Organisations

On 25 September, the Security Council held a ministerial-level debate on cooperation between the UN and regional and subregional organisations, focusing on the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in countering threats to peace and security, with a special focus on counter-terrorism efforts. Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, chaired the debate. Briefing at the debate were: Secretary-General António Guterres; SCO Secretary-General Vladimir Norov; acting CSTO Secretary-General Valery Semerikov; and the Vice Chairman of the CIS Executive Committee, Sergey Ivanov.

Peace and Security in Africa

On 26 September, the Security Council received a ministerial-level briefing on the topic “Peace and security in Africa: partnership to strengthen regional peace and security”. Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, presided.  The briefers were Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti, the Chef de Cabinet of the Executive Office of the Secretary-General, and Moussa Faki Mahamat, the Chairperson of the AU Commission. Russia (as president of the Council in October) together with the three African members of the Council (Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea and South Africa) circulated a concept note ahead of the briefing. The stated aim of the briefing is “to review the existing mechanisms to effectively support African and regional responses to the current threats to peace and security on the African continent, with a view to enhancing regional and international efforts in addressing these challenges in a strategic, sustained and coordinated manner”.