October 2019 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2019
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  • Overview

    South Africa has the presidency in October. Read more

  • In Hindsight: Striking the Balance between Transparency and Privacy

    During different periods of the Council’s existence, the pendulum has swung between the need for more open meetings in the spirit of greater transparency, and the wish for closed-door consultations which may bring more effective decision-making.  In 2018, the Council held more than twice as many formal, and therefore open, meetings (275) as informal, closed consultations (120). Just six years earlier, there was near-parity in the two types of meetings. The growing proportion of public meetings has again raised questions about the optimum balance the Council should strike. Read more

  • Status Update since our September Forecast

    Counter-Terrorism On 5 September, the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee met to discuss a de-listing request from the Office of the Ombudsperson and reports by the Monitoring Team. The Counterterrorism Committee... Read more

  • Syria

    In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its monthly meetings on the humanitarian situation, the political process, and the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Read more

  • UN-AU Cooperation on Peace and Security

    In October, Security Council members will hold their 13th annual consultative meeting with the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Members of both bodies will also hold informal consultations ahead of this meeting. Following this, the Security Council will receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s annual report on ways to strengthen the partnership between the UN and AU on issues of peace and security in Africa, including on the work of the UN Office to the AU. Read more

  • Western Sahara

    In October, Council members are expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) before its 31 October expiry. Prior to this, they will meet in consultations to discuss the Secretary-General’s report on MINURSO. Colin Stewart, the Special Representative of the Segretary-General for Western Sahara and head of MINURSO, is likely to brief on the Secretary-General’s MINURSO report, due on 1 October. Read more

  • Women, Peace and Security

    In October, the Security Council expects to hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security. The Secretary-General’s annual report on the issue is due in October as well. South Africa, as president of the Council in October, is expected to circulate a concept note ahead of the debate. The debate may also be held at a high level. The Secretary-General, a representative from UN Women, and a civil society representative may brief. Read more

  • Youth, Peace and Security

    In October, the Security Council is expected to hold an open debate under the agenda item “Peace and Security in Africa: Mobilising the Youth towards Silencing the Guns by 2020”. Read more

  • Libya

    In October, the Council is expected to renew the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking, which is set to expire on 3 October. The mandate of UNSMIL expires on 15 September 2020, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee expires on 15 February 2020. Read more

  • Colombia

    In October, the Council will receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the mission; consultations are expected to follow the briefing. The mandate of the verification mission expires on 25 September 2020. Read more

  • Sudan (Darfur)

    In October, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur (UNAMID) ahead of its expiry on 31 October. Prior to this, the Council will receive a briefing on the special report of the Secretary-General and the Chairperson of the AU Commission, requested in resolution 2479, assessing the situation on the ground and providing recommendations on the drawdown of UNAMID as well as putting forward a joint AU-UN political strategy with options for a follow-on mechanism to UNAMID. Ambassador Joanna Wronecka (Poland), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing to Council members on the committee’s work.  Read more

  • Conflict Prevention

    In October, South Africa is planning to convene a debate on “Peace and security in Africa: the centrality of preventative diplomacy, conflict prevention and resolution.” A Council product, such as a presidential statement, is a possible outcome of the meeting. Read more

  • Democratic Republic of the Congo

    In October, Special Representative and head of mission Leila Zerrougui will brief the Council on the latest Secretary-General’s report on MONUSCO. Consultations are expected following the briefing. The mandate of MONUSCO expires on 20 December, and the 1533 sanctions regime expires on 1 July 2020. Read more

  • Kosovo

    In October, the Council is expected to hold this year’s final regular briefing on the situation in Kosovo. The Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Zahir Tanin, will brief on recent developments and the latest report by the Secretary-General. In line with established practice, Serbia is likely to participate at a high level while Kosovo will probably be represented by its ambassador to the US. Read more

  • Sudan/South Sudan

    In October, the Council expects to receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), as requested in resolution 2469. The Council is also expected to decide by 15 October whether to adopt a resolution extending the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 to conduct monitoring and verification activities along the Sudan-South Sudan border. Read more

  • Mali

    In October, the Council is expected to hold a briefing on the situation in Mali, followed by consultations. The mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) ends on 30 June 2020. The Mali sanctions measures expire on 31 August 2020, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts expires on 30 September 2020. Read more

  • Haiti

    In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its last debate on the UN Mission for Justice Support in Haiti (MINUJUSTH) before it transitions to the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), a special political mission (SPM), on 16 October. It will also be briefed on the Secretary-General’s final 90-day report on MINUJUSTH. Members could adopt a Council product welcoming the transition. Read more

  • UNDOF (Golan Heights)

    In October, the Council is expected to receive a briefing on the activities of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). A representative from the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is expected to brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF and on the most recent developments. Read more

  • Yemen

    In October, the Council will hold its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special Envoy Martin Griffiths. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock is also likely to brief. The Secretary-General is further expected to submit a review of the UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) to the Council by 15 October, as requested in resolution 2481. The mandate of UNMHA expires on 15 January 2020. Read more

  • Lebanon

    In October, the Council expects to receive the semi-annual briefing on the latest report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, resolution 1559 called for the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. Read more

  • Middle East (Israel/Palestine)

    In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its quarterly open debate on the Middle East, focusing on Israel/Palestine. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov is likely to brief. Read more

  • Central African Republic

    In October, the Council will be briefed on the latest report on MINUSCA, due by 15 October. The mandate of MINUSCA expires on 15 November and the CAR sanctions regime expires on 31 January 2020. Read more

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