May 2012 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 April 2012
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Azerbaijan will hold the presidency of the Security Council in May. Early in the month, a high-level event on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts is planned, with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev expected to preside. Other Council members may be represented by ministerial-level officials. The Secretary-General will brief the Council.

Late in the month, Council members are scheduled to travel to West Africa. A Council retreat in Istanbul is also planned for May with a focus likely to be on the new political realities of the Middle East and North Africa.


Two debates are planned on:

  • Kosovo, with a briefing by Farid Zarif, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK); and
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina, preceded by a briefing, most likely by Valentin Inzko, the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Other briefings are planned on:

  • Libya and the work of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), by its head, Ian Martin, to be followed by consultations;
  • Libya and the International Criminal Court, by the ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo;
  • the work of the Council counter-terrorism committees by: Ambassador Hardeep Singh Puri (India), chair of the Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC); Ambassador Baso Sangqu (South Africa), chair of the terrorism and weapons of mass destruction committee (1540 Committee); and Ambassador Peter Wittig (Germany), chair of the Al-Qaida and Taliban sanctions committees (1267/1989 Committees);
  • Somalia, most likely by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Augustine Mahiga, on the work of the UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) and Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe on the implementation of the mandate of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), to be followed by consultations;
  • the newly established UN Supervision Mission in Syria (UNSMIS) every 15 days, under the terms of resolution 2043, to be followed in each case by consultations;
  • the Middle East, likely by the Secretariat; and
  • the Council trip to West Africa, by the mission’s co-leads.

Consultations are expected on:

  • Guinea Bissau, to be briefed on and to discuss the Secretary-General’s special report concerning the reestablishment of the constitutional order, as requested in a presidential statement of 21 April;
  • Yemen, to receive a briefing by the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser, Jamal Benomar;
  • the DPRK, to receive a briefing on the work of the sanctions committee, by its chair, Ambassador José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Portugal); and
  • Lebanon, to be briefed by Special Envoy Terje Rød-Larsen on the implementation of resolution 1559.

A formal Council session will be needed to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force in Abyei (UNISFA).

At press time the monthly “horizon scanning” briefing by DPA was not planned for May. 

Full forecast


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