July 2011 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 June 2011
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update

Tribunals: On 6 June, the Council heard a briefing (S/PV.6545) by the presidents and prosecutors of the ICTR and ICTY. They stressed that their courts were imperilled by persistent staffing problems, challenges in enforcing sentences, and the failure to set up a trust fund for the victims. On 29 June, the Council adopted a resolution extending the terms of certain judges of the ICTY till 31 December, 2012. The Council has yet to adopt a resolution amending the Statute of the ICTR in response to the request of the tribunal to allow for an appeals chamber judge to serve as president of the ICTR, or for an ad-litem judge to take on that position when the current president is deployed to the appeals chamber.

Council Mission to Africa: On 6 June the Council was briefed on the visit to Africa which Council members took from 19 to 26 May (S/PV.6546). The trip’s leaders described concerns over the situation in Abyei, the humanitarian situation in Darfur and Somalia’s institutional infighting (SC/10271).

HIV/AIDS: On 7 June the president of Gabon presided over a high-level Council debate (S/PV.6547) under the agenda item the “maintenance of international peace and security” focused on the impact of HIV/AIDS on conflict and post-conflict society and the UN’s role in mitigating that impact. The Council heard briefings from the Secretary-General and the head of UNAIDS. The Council adopted resolution 1983 during the meeting. The resolution considerably advanced upon the Council’s previous resolution on this subject (resolution 1308), by including specific language on the vulnerability of women and girls to HIV and highlighting the importance of addressing conflict-related sexual violence. The resolution also recognised the role of peacekeeping operations in contributing to an integrated UN response to HIV and AIDS, especially through SSR and DDR programmes.

Syria: On 8 June Council members were briefed by Assistant Secretary General Oscar Fernandez Taranco in closed consultations. Discussions followed on a draft resolution on the situation in Syria circulated on 25 May by the UK, France, Germany and Portugal. Some Council members were uncomfortable with what they saw as possible action-oriented language which might lead to robust follow-up by the Council. Another issue raised by members like Brazil, South Africa, India, China and Russia was that the Council should not be prescribing precisely how a country should reform itself politically. It seems that there is no longer unequivocal support for the argument made by some members at an earlier stage that that this is an internal situation and that President Assad should be given more time to deal with it without international interference. However, at issue is the mode for the Council to express itself and the content. At press time, the initiative on Syria and the Council’s possible political engagement was still an active issue.

Iran: On 9 June the Council extended the mandate of the panel of experts that supports the Iran sanctions committee for one year (S/RES/1984). The resolution requested that the panel submit to the Council a midterm report on its work by 9 December 2011 and a final report upon termination of its mandate (9 June 2012). The panel is requested to provide each of these reports to the Committee a month before they are submitted to the Council in order to allow for a discussion. In addition, the panel is asked to provide the Committee with a programme of work within 30 days of its appointment. (S/PV.6552)

DPRK: On 10 June the Council extended the mandate of the panel of experts that supports the DPRK sanctions committee until 12 June 2012 (S/RES/1985). The resolution requested that the panel submit to the Council a midterm report on its work by 12 December 2011 and a final report upon termination of its mandate. The panel is asked to provide each of these reports to the Committee a month before they are submitted to the Council in order to allow for a discussion. In addition, the panel is requested to provide the Committee with a programme of work within 30 days of its appointment. (S/PV.6553)

Cyprus: On 13 June, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1986, extending the mandate of the UNFICYP until 15 December 2011. The Council also called upon the leaders of the two communities on the island to intensify the momentum of negotiations, engage in the process in a constructive and open manner, and work on reaching convergences on the remaining core issues in preparation for their meeting with the Secretary-General in July 2011. (S/PV.6554)

Secretary-General Appointment:  On 16 June the Council adopted resolution 1987 recommending to the General Assembly that Ban Ki-moon be appointed Secretary-General of the United Nations for a second term of office from 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2016 (S/PV.6556). This formal recommendation came after the Council met twice in informal consultations to discuss the appointment, on 10 and 15 June. On 21 June the General Assembly formally appointed Ban to a second term (GA/11102).  

Counterterrorism (1267 Committee): On 17 June the Council adopted two resolutions related to the 1267 Committee on Taliban and al Qaeda sanctions. Resolution 1988 proceeds from a recognition that the security situation in Afghanistan has evolved. It now establishes a separate list for Taliban individuals and entities subject to sanctions. It also establishes a new Afghanistan focused sanctions committee to oversee the list. This new list removes Taliban from the consolidated list utilised by the 1267 Committee up to this time and Taliban individuals asking to be taken off the sanctions list will submit their requests to the UN Focal Point mechanism (established in resolution 1730) rather than to the office of the Ombudsperson (established in resolution 1904). The monitoring team that has supported the 1267 Committee up to now will also support the new Taliban committee for a period of 18 months. The monitoring team is to submit two reports to the committee on implementation of the resolution (the first by 31 March 2012 and the second by 31 October 2012), as well as a report within 90 days on linkages between Taliban individuals and entities on the new list and al Qaeda.

In resolution 1989, the Council decided that the al Qaeda-related entries on the 1267 consolidated list will now be known as the “Al-Qaeda Sanctions List”. The resolution extends the mandate of the Ombudsperson and the monitoring team for 18 months. The monitoring team is to submit two reports to the committee on implementation of the resolution by 31 March 2012 and 31 October 2012. Several new procedures were adopted for strengthening the office of the Ombudsperson. When presenting delisting requests to the committee, the Ombudsperson will now include a recommendation that the committee either retain the listing or consider delisting. When the Ombudsperson recommends delisting, the individual will be taken off the list unless the committee decides by consensus within 60 days to retain the listing. Likewise, when a designating state requests that an entry now be removed, the entry will be removed unless the committee decides by consensus to retain the listing within 60 days. (When the committee cannot come to consensus, a committee member may request the chair to submit the question of whether to delist that individual/entity to the Council, with a decision within 60 days.) The chair of the committee is requested to continue participating in the joint briefing of the Council by the counterterrorism committees every six months.

Peace and Security in Africa: On 21 June, the Council was briefed (S/PV.6561) by the head of the UN Office to the AU (UNOAU), Zachary Muburi-Muita. In his first address to the Council, he said his Office was making solid progress in its transition towards a “new, lean, self-sufficient operation” based in Addis Ababa (SC/10288).

Liberia: The Council held consultations on 23 June on the mid-term report of the Panel of Experts of the Liberia Sanctions Committee (S/2011/367). The report considers in detail the arms embargo, and travel bans on individuals identified as a threat to stability in Liberia and assets freeze against Charles Taylor and his associates. It also details progress made by the Liberian authorities in regulating the natural resource sector, in particular ensuring its diamond industry is in compliance with the Kimberley Process and its forestry and timber sector is being managed in compliance with domestic laws. The Panel’s final report is due 1 December.

Middle East: On 23 June the Council was briefed by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs B. Lynn Pascoe on the impasse in the Israeli/Palestinian peace process. Pascoe said that US President Barack Obama’s 19 May speech offered important ideas to move the process forward. This was endorsed by the Quartet on 20 May which also called on the parties to overcome obstacles and return to negotiations (S/PV.6562). The Quartet met an envoy’s level on 24 June. At press time it remained unclear if there will be a follow-up meeting of the principals in July.

UNODC: On 24 June Yury Fedotov, Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) briefed the Council on the illicit drugs trade and organised crime (SC/10295). He called the international drug problem a shared responsibility, stressing the need to bolster regional capacity and strengthen international cooperation when confronting it.

Yemen: On 24 June, Ambassador Nelson Messone of Gabon, who holds the Council presidency for June, said in remarks to the press that the Council expressed grave concern on the deteriorating security and humanitarian situation in Yemen and urged all parties to show maximum restraint and to engage in an inclusive political dialogue. These comments followed the briefing by UN envoy Jamal bin Omer after his recent visit to Yemen. (Elements to the press were suggested by Germany on 20 April and 16 May when the Council was briefed on developments in Yemen as part of the regular monthly DPA briefing. However, there was no consensus on those two previous occasions.)

Guinea-Bissau: On 28 June the Council was briefed by the head of the UN integrated peacebuilding office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), Joseph Mutaboba (S/PV.6569). The briefing drew upon the latest report of the Secretary-General (S/2011/370). The defence minister of Guinea-Bissau addressed the Council, as did the Permanent Representative of Brazil, in her capacity as Chair of the Guinea-Bissau configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission. The Council held consultations on the situation in Guinea-Bissau following the briefing.

DRC: On 28 June, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 1991, extending the mandate of the UN Organization Stabilisation Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) for another 12 months. The resolution maintains the current strength and priorities of MONUSCO’s mandate and authorises the force to continue to provide technical and logistical assistance to the upcoming national and local elections.

UNDOF: At press time, it was expected that on 29 June the Council would renew the mandate of the UN Disengagement Force in the Golan Heights for a further six months. Still at issue at press time was whether to reflect in the resolution language about the current situation in Syria and implementation for UNDOF and whether to continue to issue the accompanying presidential statement as has been the practice since 1976. On 23 June, the Council held consultations on the Secretary-General’s most recent UNDOF report (S/2011/359).

full forecast