Security Council ReportMonthly Forecast May 2011
Security Council Report
Monthly Forecast May 2011
Welcome to our May Forecast Report, posted on 29 April. France will have the Council presidency in May. Our Overview highlights issues likely to arise.
Full Forecast in PDF and Word • Please subscribe to receive notification of SCR publications by email.
WHAT IS SCHEDULED IN THE SECURITY COUNCIL TODAY • UN JOURNAL
SECURITY COUNCIL CALENDAR FOR MAY • UN SECRETARIAT LIST OF ISSUES FOR MAY
Appointment of new Executive Director for SCR
I am delighted, on behalf of the Board of Security Council Report, to advise that the Board has appointed Ambassador Bruno Stagno Ugarte of Costa Rica as the next Executive Director of SCR. It is hoped that Ambassador Stagno Ugarte will be able to take up the leadership of SCR around the end of July. Ambassador Stagno Ugarte was until recently the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Costa Rica. In this capacity he steered Costa Rica’s tenure as an elected member of the Security Council in 2008-2009. From 2002-2006 he served here in New York as Permanent Representative of Costa Rica to the UN. I join the Board in their enthusiasm about this appointment. Ambassador Stagno Ugarte is well known to many of our readers who I am sure will agree that he is eminently well qualified to lead SCR. I am confident he will be an excellent partner for all the missions and others who follow the work of the Security Council who have come to rely on SCR reports and our advice. -Colin Keating
NOTABLE DATES for MAY
| Date Due | Reports for Consideration |
| 19 April | SG report on 1559 (Lebanon) |
| 26 April | ICC report on Libya |
| 30 April | SG report on post MINURCAT |
| 30 April | SG report on Kosovo (UNMIK) |
| early May | SG report on Burundi (BNUB) |
| early May | SG report on post-DFI mechanism |
| 1 May | SG report on Somalia (AMISOM) |
| 3 May | Bosnia and Herzegovina High Representative report |
| 13 May | SG report on DRC (MONUSCO) |
| 13 May | SG report on Sudan |
| 18 May | DRC Group of Experts |
| UPDATES |
26 May 2011: Update Report on Syria: On 25 May France, Germany, Portugal and the UK circulated to Security Council members a draft resolution condemning the government crackdown in Syria. At press time it was unclear when the draft might be put to a vote. Discussions at the G8 summit in France today and tomorrow could be significant in this regard. The initiative to take action on the violence by Syria against its citizens has been gaining ground over the last month. But there have been divisions in the Council. However, it seems that there are now the necessary nine votes to adopt a resolution so the question of Council dynamics becomes the positions of the three permanent members who have not yet been willing to support formal Council action (China, Russia and the US). Update Report in Word • PDF
24 May 2011: Appointment of the UN Secretary-General: Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s term in office is due to expire on 31 December 2011. The appointment of a Secretary-General is the responsibility of the General Assembly, but the Security Council has the responsibility to recommend the candidate. This report outlines the main processes that guide the appointment of a Secretary-General. It also recalls a number of recent proposals for reforming the selection and appointment process and suggests some options for the Council at this time. In 2001, the time of the last reappointment of a Secretary-General, the Security Council on 27 June in resolution 1358 recommended the reappointment of Kofi Annan. In 2011, in the absence of any competing candidate emerging, it seems that there will again be an uncontested election. A decision by the Council in June is a possible option. PDF
23 May 2011: Emerging Security Threats in West Africa: Security Council Report has published a Special Research Report, Emerging Security Threats in West Africa. This report provides analysis of recent peace and security issues in West Africa and the possible implications for the work of the Security Council in the coming years. Drawing from literature research and field research in a number of the countries in the West African subregion, the report provides background on emerging threats and security challenges in West Africa. It highlights the action already taken by the Council and considers options available to the Council to tackle these issues going forward. Word • PDF
10 May 2011: Working Together for Peace and Security in Africa: The Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council
Security Council Report has just published a Special Research Report, Working Together for Peace and Security in Africa: The Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council. There is a growing interest in how to improve the partnership between the UN Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council to prevent and end violent conflicts in Africa. With the tenth anniversary of the AU inauguration just over a year away it seems clear that the relationship is still far from realising its full potential for being an effective partnership. This current study by Security Council Report is designed to improve the level of knowledge on all sides, to explore some of the issues and options and as a result to provide a resource for the practitioners of this relationship for the future. PDF • Word
3 May 2011: Update Report on Protection of Civilians: On Tuesday 10 May the Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on protection of civilians in armed conflict. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations Alain Le Roy and Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic are expected to speak. With the Council’s recent consideration of protection of civilians in specific situations including in Côte d’Ivoire, Libya, Yemen and Syria, it is unclear whether participants in the debate will be mostly focused on thematic issues or will use it as an opportunity to address situation-specific concerns. Word • PDF
