May 2011 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 April 2011
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THE SECURITY COUNCIL

Visiting Mission to Africa

Council members are planning a visit in May to several locations in Africa, most likely Nairobi, Juba, Abyei, Khartoum and Addis Ababa. Council members have travelled to Africa at least once a year for the last decade. Some of these trips were focused on just one situation from the Council’s agenda but most have included several. Since 2007, the Africa itinerary has included Addis Ababa every other year, for what has become the practice of an annual consultation with the AU’s Peace and Security Council (alternating between the two organisations’ headquarters).

At press time the Africa trip was planned for late in the month. Therefore, the usual outcome of a mission, a formal Council briefing, is not expected before June.

The Nairobi part of the trip will be focused on Somalia. The UK most likely, jointly with South Africa, will be in charge of formulating terms of reference and leading the Council delegation on this first leg. All major international actors involved with Somalia—including the Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Somalia, the UN Political Office for Somalia, the UN humanitarian aid coordinator for Somalia, the headquarters of the AU Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) and the UN Support Office for AMISOM (UNSOA)—are based in Nairobi.

The US is expected to lead on the visits to the Sudan locations on the itinerary. The focus in Juba is likely to be on the preparations for South Sudan’s independence and the plans for a new UN mission there. In Abyei the delegation is expected to centre on the ongoing violence in that region. In Khartoum members will most likely meet the leadership of the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS), as well as a number of Sudanese actors. (As during the previous Khartoum trip, many members of the Council will adhere to the policy of not interacting with Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir and others who have been indicted by the International Criminal Court.)

France, as the Council president for May, will lead on the Addis Ababa segment of the trip, which will be focused largely on the institutional relationship between the two Councils. (In early May, Security Council Report will be issuing a Special Research Report, Working Together for Peace and Security in Africa: The Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council, which will provide a look at the Council’s approaches to Africa over several years, analyse the relationship between the UN and the AU and present some options for the future.)

UN Documents

Security Council Resolutions
  • S/RES/1964 (22 December 2010) renewed the authorisation of AMISOM until 30 September 2011 and raised its troop level to 12,000.
  • S/RES/1809 (16 April 2008) welcomed the Secretary-General’s proposal to set up an AU-UN panel to consider the modalities of how to support AU peacekeeping operations established under a UN mandate.
  • S/RES/1625 (14 September 2005) was a declaration on the effectiveness of the Council’s role in conflict prevention, calling for the strengthening of cooperation and communication between the UN and regional and subregional organisations in accordance with Chapter VIII (on regional arrangements).

Presidential Statements
  • S/PRST/2011/6 (10 March 2011) stressed the need for a comprehensive strategy for Somalia.
  • S/PRST/2011/3 (9 February 2011) was the statement issued by the Council on the occasion of the announcement of the formal results of the Southern Sudan referendum.
  • S/PRST/2010/21 (22 October 2010) was a statement welcoming the inaugural meeting of the UN-AU joint task force and noting the Secretary-General’s intention to submit a report defining the UN Secretariat’s strategic vision for UN-AU cooperation in peace and security.
  • S/PRST/2004/44 (19 November 2004) recognised the importance of strengthening cooperation with the AU in order to help build its capacity to deal with collective security challenges.

Secretary-General’s Reports
  • S/2011/54 (2 February 2011) was on the review of the ten-year capacity-building programme for the AU.
  • S/2010/514 (14 October 2010) was on support to AU peacekeeping operations authorised by the UN.

Meeting Records
  • S/PV.6409 (22 October 2010) was the latest debate on the report of the Secretary-General on support to AU peacekeeping operations authorised by the UN.
  • S/PV.6092 and resumption 1 (18 March 2009) was the debate on the AU-UN Panel’s report on modalities for support to AU operations.

Selected Letters
  • S/2010/392 (20 July 2010) was a letter dated 20 July 2010 from the permanent representatives of Gabon and Nigeria to the president of the Security Council, which contained the communiqué of the consultative meeting of members of the Security Council and the Peace and Security Council on 9 July 2010 in New York.
  • S/2008/813 (24 December 2008) was the letter from the Secretary-General forwarding the Prodi Panel report on support to AU peacekeeping operations authorised by the UN.
  • S/2008/263 (18 April 2008) was a letter from the permanent representative of South Africa to the president of the Security Council containing the joint communiqué of the 17 April 2008 meeting between the two councils.

Other
  • S/2009/303 (11 June 2009) was the report of the Council mission to the AU, Rwanda, the DRC and Liberia, which contained the communiqué of 16 May 2009 from the consultative meeting between the members of the Security Council and the AU.
  • S/2007/421 (11 July 2007) was the report of the Security Council visit to Addis Ababa, Accra, Abidjan, Khartoum and Kinshasa containing the joint communiqué from the 16 June 2007 meeting.

Full forecast

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