September 2010 Monthly Forecast

Posted 25 August 2010
Download Complete Forecast: PDF

Status Update

Recent developments on the situations covered in this Forecast are addressed in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues in the Council during August included:

Counter-Terrorism: On 2 August the chair of the Al-Qaida and Taliban (1267) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Thomas Mayr-Harting, said that after completing its review of the consolidated list of individuals and entities subject to its sanctions regime, the Committee had removed 45 names from the list including eight deceased people. (Thirty-five of the names had been associated with Al-Qaida and ten with the Taliban.) The review of the consolidated list had been mandated by resolution 1822 (30 June 2008). At time of writing the Committee’s monitoring team was expected to produce a report on the outcome of the review by the end of August as called for in resolution 1904 (17 December 2009).

Kosovo: On 3 August the Special Representative and head of UNMIK, Lamberto Zannier, briefed (S.PV/6367) the Council on Kosovo, following the issuance of the ICJ opinion on the legality of Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence. “The issuance of the opinion should therefore now open a new phase and allow Belgrade and Pristina to engage in a constructive dialogue”, he said. Zannier also said that the ICJ reaffirmed that Kosovo remained subject to the interim administration of the UN and resolution 1244 (1999) and UNMIK’s Constitutional Framework in Kosovo continued to apply. He also introduced the latest report on UNMIK (S/2010/401). Foreign Ministers Vuk Jeremić of Serbia and Skender Hyseni of Kosovo addressed the Council.

Iraq: On 5 August the Council reaffirmed the importance of the activities of UNAMI and extended the mission’s mandate through 31 July 2011 (S/RES/1936). The Council called on Iraqi leaders to form a government as quickly as possible through an inclusive political process. The Council also welcomed Iraq’s application of the Additional Protocol to the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency and reaffirmed the continuing importance of Iraq’s ratification of the agreement. The resolution called on Iraq and other member states to continue providing financial, logistical and security resources for UNAMI and requested the Secretary-General to report to the Council on the progress made by the mission every four months.

Central Asia: On 5 August the Council was briefed by Miroslav Jenča, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative on the work of the UN Regional Office for Central Asia (UNRCCA). Council members agreed a press statement (SC/10005) voicing appreciation for the work of the UNRCCA in assisting Central Asian countries in responding to challenges in the region, particularly in the context of developments in Kyrgyzstan.

Peacekeeping: On 6 August the Council held a debate and briefing on peacekeeping operations (S/PV.6370). This was part of a series of discussions following the Council’s August 2009 presidential statement (S/PRST/2009/24) agreeing to have more regular briefings by DPKO and DFS. Members were briefed by the Under-Secretary-General of Peacekeeping Operations, Alain Le Roy and the Force Commanders of UNMIL, MONUSCO, UNMIS and MINUSTAH, as well as the Chief of Staff of UNTSO. The Force Commanders provided an update of developments in their missions, shared lessons learned and laid out the challenges ahead.

Chad/CAR: On 10 August Youssef Mahmoud, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of MINURCAT, briefed (S.PV/6371) the Council on the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2010/409). He reported that the initial drawdown of the military component was carried out in an orderly manner and that by 15 July troop levels had been reduced to 2,174, with 1,878 in Chad and 296 in the CAR. Mahmoud reported that there had been no reports of targeting of civilians, but banditry continued. (As of 27 May, the Chadian government assumed full responsibility for the security and protection of civilians and humanitarian workers in eastern Chad.) On CAR, he reported that continuing security threats in the northeast were mainly the result of the weak presence of the country’s armed forces and noted the Secretary-General’s proposal for capacity-building.

DRC: On 18 August the Council agreed a press statement (SC/10010) condemning the attacks on peacekeepers in Kirumba, which resulted in the death of three Indian soldiers.

DPRK: On 24 August the chair of the 1718 Committee on DPRK sanctions briefed Council members.

Lebanon: At press time it was expected that on 30 August the Council would renew the UNIFIL mandate for 12 months as requested by the Secretary-General (S/2010/430). The preambular paragraphs of the expected resolution may include stronger language on respect for the blue line in response to the 3 August Israeli-Lebanese border incident and on UNIFIL’s freedom of movement in response to the incidents of late June and early July (SC/9976). On 3 August there was an exchange of fire along the blue line separating Israel and Lebanon resulting in the death of three Lebanese soldiers, one Israeli officer and one Lebanese journalist (S/2010/415 and S/2010/418). Council members were briefed on the same day by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Alain Le Roy and UNIFIL Force Commander Alberto Asarta Cuevas. In elements to the press Council members called on the parties to practice utmost restraint, strictly abide by their obligations under resolution 1701, observe the cessation of hostilities, respect the blue line in its entirety, and strengthen coordination with UNIFIL through the tripartite committee. (It was expected that the Council would meet again on this issue in the coming weeks after UNIFIL completes its investigation, possibly using the informal interactive dialogue format to allow for Israel’s participation.)
Full forecast