September 2010 Monthly Forecast

• Israel/Palestine

  Robert Serry, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, is likely to brief the Council in September. The substantive progress made in August on restarting direct Israeli-Palestinian talks and establishing the Secretary-General’s Panel of Inquiry into the 31 May Gaza flotilla incident are likely to be the focus. Read more

• Overview

  Turkey will hold the presidency of the Security Council in September. As in each year, many world leaders will be in New York for the general debate at the General Assembly set to begin on the morning of 23 September.... Read more

• Sierra Leone

  In September the Council will be briefed on developments in Sierra Leone by Michael von der Schulenburg, the head of UNIPSIL. The Secretary-General’s next progress report is due in mid-September. The mandate of UNIPSIL, which expires on 30 September, is expected to be renewed for another year. Read more

• Iran

  A briefing from the chair of the 1737 Sanctions Committee on Iran is expected in September. A report from the IAEA on Iran's compliance with Council resolutions is also expected. No Council action was expected at time of writing. However, issues relating to Iran seem likely to arise in various informal meetings during the high-level General Assembly week in September. Read more

• Afghanistan

  At the end of September, the Council is expected to have a debate on Afghanistan where a briefing by the head of UNAMA, Staffan de Mistura, is expected. The Secretary-General’s report is likely to be circulated in the latter half of September. With legislative elections taking place in Afghanistan on 18 September, Council members will be interested in de Mistura’s analysis of the conduct and outcome of the elections. Read more

• High-Level Meeting on International Peace and Security

  Turkey has indicated that as Council president in September it will call for a formal meeting of the Council on 23 September. It has proposed that this be at the level of heads of state and government. Read more

• Sudan

  In September, the Sudan Sanctions Committee’s group of experts is likely to submit its report in advance of the 15 October 2010 expiration of their mandate. The periodic report of the Sanctions Committee also falls due in September. Read more

• International Court of Justice Election

  The Security Council and the General Assembly will meet on 9 September to hold elections for the vacant seat created by the resignation of Judge Thomas Buergenthal (US) from the ICJ. (The date of the election was decided by the Council in resolution 1926 of 2 June.) The elected judge will occupy the seat for the remainder of Buergenthal’s term, until 5 February 2015. Read more

• Meeting on Terrorism

  As Council president in September, Turkey (which also chairs the Council’s Counter-Terrorism Committee) is planning to convene a debate late in September on counter-terrorism. The country’s Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, is expected to preside. A presidential statement is a possible outcome. Read more

• Aide Memoire

  Important matters pending include: The quarterly reports on ISAF in Afghanistan are still running about six months late. (The latest was circulated on 1 July covering the period from 1 November 2009 to 31 January 2010.) UNAMI reports on human... Read more

• Haiti

  The Council is due to receive a report from the Secretary-General on the UN mission in Haiti, MINUSTAH, by 31 August. At time of writing there was no decision for the Council to take up Haiti formally in September, although there was some discussion of a possible debate—to highlight the importance of the issues. Read more

• Somalia

  The Secretary-General’s report on Somalia is due by 1 September. Later in the month the Council is expected to hold a debate on Somalia most likely featuring a briefing by the Secretary-General’s new Special Representative Augustine Mahiga. This would be Mahiga’s first appearance before the Council since his appointment in June. Read more

• Nepal

  The mandate of the mission in Nepal, UNMIN, expires on 15 September. Karin Landgren, UNMIN’s head, is expected to brief the Council in early September. Among the areas likely to be covered in the briefing are the political stalemate in Nepal following the resignation of Madhav Nepal as prime minister on 30 June, developments in integration of the Maoists ex-combatants and impact of these developments on UNMIN’s ability to carry out its mandate. Read more

• Liberia

  In September the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the peacekeeping operation in Liberia, UNMIL, which expires on 30 September. A briefing by Ellen Løj, the Head of UNMIL, is also expected. The Secretary-General’s progress report on UNMIL was submitted to the Council on 11 August. Read more

• Security Council Statistics

  In our February 2010 Forecast we analysed the statistical output of the Security Council for 2009. The finding that there had been a significant drop in the number of Security Council decisions of 26 percent from 2008 was a surprise. Read more

• Notable Dates

  Notable dates for September 2010. Read more

• Status Update

  Status Update of Security Council Activity in August 2010. Read more