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Conflict Prevention

Expected Council Action
The Security Council Working Group on Conflict Prevention has before it the Secretary-General’s report on implementation of resolution 1625. Recommendations from a 3 December seminar organised by the Working Group are also available. However, it is unclear whether proposals will come forward for Council action on this issue in February, or perhaps in April when South Africa has the Council presidency.

Key Recent Developments
On 14 January, Council members reportedly received advance copies of the Secretary-General’s report. Due since 27 October, the report is likely to be formally released in early February. (For detailed background on this issue see our November 2007 Forecast and 24 August 2007 Update.)

The 3 December seminar, organised by the Council’s Working Group, involved UN member states, the UN, regional organisations, think tanks, NGOs and the private sector.

Recommendations from the seminar included:

• instituting better procedures to allow rapid reaction by the Council to crises;
• giving a clearer preventive diplomacy mandate to the Secretary-General;
• paying particular attention to disputes with the potential to become a threat to international peace and security; and
• enhancing existing partnerships between the Council and regional organisations.

Recommendations from the seminar were expected to be used as a basis for drafting a decision for consideration by the Council.

Key Issues
A major issue is whether the Council will be ready in February to take up in a substantive way recommendations from the Secretary-General’s report and the December seminar. Another major issue involves the future role of the Working Group. (There was concern in the past that its working methods tended to lead in the direction of abstract discussion. South Africa (the new chair) seems determined to reenergise the Group and perhaps move it in the direction of contributing to country-specific problems.)

Options
Options for the Council include:

• a substantive discussion in February of the Secretary-General’s report and the recommendations from the seminar and adoption of a resolution or presidential statement;
• undertaking an initial discussion in February but deferring action until the Working Group can produce some clearly defined measures for consideration by the Council; and
• encouraging the Working Group to bridge the gap between conflict prevention at the conceptual level and its effective application in specific contexts. (The Secretary-General observed in his 2006 report to the General Assembly on the prevention of armed conflict (A/60/891) that while a culture of prevention had begun to take hold at the UN, an “unacceptable gap remains, however, between rhetoric and reality.”)

Council Dynamics
Council members generally seem to support a culture of prevention within the UN as an efficient alternative to expensive and complex peacekeeping missions and humanitarian operations. However, it seems that some of the permanent members may be less supportive of this. Overall, the Council appears to be favourably disposed towards the idea of using the Secretary-General’s report as well as viable proposals from the seminar to assist in further streamlining the Council’s complementary role with the Secretariat in elaborating global conflict-prevention strategies, and possibly the adoption of a resolution or presidential statement.

The UK and France were instrumental in helping to develop resolution 1625 and seem keen to see conflict prevention become a natural extension and integral part of the UN’s work. They welcome the recent developments in refocusing attention on this issue.

South Africa is expected to spearhead related Council action following its assumption of the Chair of the Working Group in January.

Underlying Problems
Differing views exist among the wider UN membership. Some are concerned that a prevention culture could lead to international intervention or might infringe on sovereignty. These kinds of concerns have contributed to the limited progress in the area of conflict prevention in recent years in the intergovernmental machinery. However, it seems that some important developments are underway in regard to capacity-building in the Secretariat, in particular with respect to the Secretary-General’s good offices and mediation capacity (including activities such as mediation training for UN staff, the development of an on-line database with mediation-related materials and the creation of a standby cadre of specialists to support mediation efforts), as well as the Council’s cooperation with the AU (especially efforts towards fulfilling some of the demands of the Council’s 16 June 2007 joint communiqué with the AU Peace and Security Council, such as information sharing on situations of conflict on their respective agendas). Challenges still remain with regard to developing an enhanced and structured relationship with the AU, particularly in the area of developing sustainable mechanisms for extending assistance to the AU’s capacity and resource base.

Full forecast

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