Iran
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It now seems unlikely that recent diplomatic initiatives aimed at resuming negotiations between Iran and the EU3+3 (France, Germany, UK + China, Russia and US) on Iran's nuclear programme will produce early results. A new resolution expanding sanctions against Iran is therefore likely to be adopted in July.
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The Council is expected to adopt a resolution further expanding sanctions against Iran, in light of the 23 May report of the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mohammed ElBaradei that Iran had not complied with resolution 1747.
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By 23 May the Council expects to receive the report of the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohammed ElBaradei, on Iran's compliance with resolution 1747, which in March imposed additional measures against Iran. A negative report from the IAEA is expected.
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Council action on Iran is not expected in February. The EU3+3 (France, Germany and the UK, plus China, Russia and the US) is likely to caucus once the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presents his report on Iran's compliance with resolution 1737.
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France and the UK are now sponsoring a draft resolution imposing sanctions against Iran for its non-compliance with previous resolutions from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors and Security Council resolutions requesting it to suspend enrichment-related and reprocessing activities.
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It remains unclear when the draft resolution currently being considered by the P5 plus Germany (P5+1) will be formally presented to the Council. This draft resolution would impose sanctions against Iran because of its non-compliance with resolution 1696, which demands that Iran suspend all nuclear enrichment-related and reprocessing activities.
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The five permanent members of the Council are now discussing an EU3 (France, Germany and the UK) proposal for sanctions against Iran. P5 plus Germany discussions of how to deal with Iran's non-compliance with resolution 1696 are likely to be prolonged and difficult.
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The report from the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 31 August assessing Iran's compliance with resolution 1696 will provide a focus for the informal contacts which have already begun among the P5 plus Germany (P5 plus 1) on how to respond to the 22 August Iranian counter-proposals.
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At press time, the Council is poised to adopt a resolution on Iran. The resolution, implementing an agreement reached in Paris on 12 July by the P5 and Germany (P5+1), responds to concerns about ongoing delay in securing a response to the package of incentives proposed to Iran in June in order to persuade Iran to re-engage in negotiations over a peaceful nuclear programme and comply with previous resolutions by the IAEA Board of Governors.
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No Council action is expected in the first half of July unless, contrary to expectations, Iran responds early (and negatively) to the P5 plus Germany's package of incentives. From mid-July onwards, increased US pressure seems likely and this could take the form of bringing the issue back to New York-perhaps initially by raising it in Informal Consultations of the Council.
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In June, Iran will almost certainly be on the Council's agenda again. As forecast last month, a draft resolution was introduced by France and the UK and, at press time, negotiations are still ongoing. Adoption in June now seems likely. Follow up action also seems likely in June.
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Security Council members are expected to take up the Iranian issue in May after the report by the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is submitted to the Council and the IAEA Board of Governors. Following a meeting of the P5 and Germany, planned in Paris on 2 May, France and the UK are likely to introduce a draft resolution.
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The 6 March session of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the IAEA report on the implementation by Iran of its Non-Proliferation Treaty's Safeguards Agreement will be the trigger for the Council to take up the Iran issue. The Council's handling of this issue at the initial stages is likely to be incremental and not overly contentious. The initial question will be procedural-whether a new or an existing agenda item should be used.
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The Security Council will take up the issue of Iran's nuclear programme after a referral from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is likely to be adopted by the IAEA Board of Governors at a special meeting on 2 and 3 February in Vienna.
