Iran
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It is unclear whether the Council will consider the Iran nuclear issue during February. China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK and the US continue to discuss further steps in response to Iran’s non-compliance with IAEA and Council decisions and apparent rejection of the compromise October offer to send its low-enriched uranium to Russia and France for further enrichment, in return for fuel rods to be used in the Tehran Research Reactor for medical purposes
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Council members seem likely in December to discuss the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Iran’s compliance with Council resolutions. In addition it seems that the chair of the sanctions committee on Iran (the 1737 Committee) will brief the Council on 10 December.
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In September the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is due to present its next report on Iran’s compliance with Council resolutions to the IAEA Board of Governors. It is unclear when the report will be taken up by the Council, but there is some apprehension that the report will be more negative than past ones.
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The chairman of the 1737 Sanctions Committee on Iran, Ambassador Yukio Takasu of Japan, is due to deliver a briefing in June.
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The prospects of change in US policy on Iran and the possibility of a new diplomatic track on the Iranian nuclear issue suggests that Council involvement in March will be of a technical nature only.
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The E3+3 countries (France, Germany and the UK plus China, Russia and the US) have been discussing further sanctions against Iran in light of its ongoing noncompliance with Council demands to stop uranium enrichment. However, recent events in Georgia have created tensions between Russia on the one hand and the US and the Europeans.
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Issues relating to Iran’s nuclear programme will be in the minds of Council members during June following the release on 26 May of the most recent report from the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Mohammed ElBaradei.
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At press time Council members were discussing the draft of a third sanctions resolution on Iran, sponsored by France, Germany and the UK aimed at increasing pressure on Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities.
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At time of writing, elements of a third resolution on sanctions against Iran were being shared in bilateral meetings with the elected members of the Council. This process makes it likely that formal discussion in the Council will be in February.
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At press time, efforts to prepare a third resolution on sanctions against Iran were continuing. But the recent US intelligence assessment that Iran had stopped its nuclear weapons programme in 2003 seems to have impacted the political dynamics and, probably, the pace of negotiations.
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At press time it was unclear whether the E3+3 (France, Germany and the UK plus China, Russia and the US) would introduce a draft resolution with further sanctions against Iran in December. A meeting between the E3+3 political directors to discuss the way forward was expected to take place on 1 December.
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The Council is unlikely to take up the issue of Iran's nuclear programme in November. Discussions among the EU3+3 (France, Germany and the UK plus China, Russia and the US) are likely to continue following the completion of the report from the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on progress for implementation of the work plan agreed between Iran and the IAEA to resolve outstanding issues to be submitted to the IAEA board of directors on 22 November.
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At press time, the issue of Iran's nuclear programme and its non-compliance with international obligations under resolutions 1696, 1737 and 1747 to suspend uranium enrichment was being discussed among the EU3+3 (France, Germany and the UK plus China, Russia and the US). It seems unlikely that there will be sufficient agreement for a draft resolution intensifying sanctions against Iran to be introduced in October.
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Council action on Iran in September seems unlikely. However, senior officers from the EU3+3 (France, Germany and the UK plus China, Russia and the US) may discuss Iran in New York in late September during the high-level section of the UN General Assembly in order to define a common position on the way forward regarding Iran's nuclear programme.
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It now seems unlikely that recent diplomatic initiatives aimed at resuming negotiations between Iran and the EU3+3 (France, Germany, UK + China, Russia and US) on Iran's nuclear programme will produce early results. A new resolution expanding sanctions against Iran is therefore likely to be adopted in July.