October 2022 Monthly Forecast

• Overview 

  In October, Gabon will hold the presidency of the Security Council.  Read more

• In Hindsight: The Long and Winding Road to Security Council Reform 

  The current war in Ukraine, which has shown the impotence of the UN Security Council when one of its permanent members goes to war in violation of the UN Charter, has brought renewed energy to the debate over reforming the Council. Security Council reform has been an ongoing topic of discussion in the UN General Assembly since the early post-Cold War period, with reform pressures tending to intensify in response to an international crisis that exposes the structural weaknesses of the Security Council.    Read more

• Status Update since our September Forecast 

  This is the Status Update since our last Forecast. Read more

• Ukraine

  In October, the Security Council may hold one or more meetings on the situation in Ukraine, depending on developments on the ground. Read more

• Climate and Security

  Gabon is planning to hold a debate on “Climate and security in Africa” under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item as one of the signature events of its Council presidency. The meeting will be chaired by Gabon’s foreign minister, Michael Moussa-Adamo. UN Secretary-General António Guterres and AU Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat are expected to brief. Representatives of some of Africa’s sub-regional organisations may also participate in the meeting. Read more

• Iraq

  In October, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from the Special Representative and head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, on recent developments in Iraq and on the Secretary-General’s latest reports on UNAMI and the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-party nationals and missing Kuwaiti property. Both reports were provided to Council members in late September.  Read more

• Peace and Security in Africa: Financing of Armed Groups and Terrorists Through Illicit Trafficking of Natural Resources

  In October, Gabon is organising a high-level debate on strengthening the fight against the financing of armed groups and terrorists through the illicit trafficking of natural resources. The debate will be one of the signature events of Gabon’s presidency. AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace, and Security Bankole Adeoye, Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Ghada Fathi Waly, and a representative of civil society are likely to brief. Gabonese President Ali Bongo Ondimba is expected to chair the meeting. Read more

• UN-AU Cooperation

  In October, the Council is expected to hold the annual debate on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations, focusing on the AU. The Gabonese foreign minister, Michael Moussa-Adamo, is expected to chair the meeting. Secretary-General António Guterres and Chairperson of the AU Commission Moussa Faki Mahamat are the anticipated briefers. A presidential statement is a possible outcome. Read more

• Sudan/South Sudan

  In October, the Council expects to receive a briefing on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), due by 14 October, as requested in resolution 2630. Consultations will follow the briefing.   Read more

• Colombia

  In October, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission, dated 27 September. The Council is also expected to renew the verification mission’s mandate ahead of its 31 October expiry. Read more

• Yemen

  In October, the Council is expected to hold a briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths are the anticipated briefers. General Michael Beary, head of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), is expected to brief during the consultations. Read more

• Western Sahara

  In October, the Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), which expires on 31 October. Ahead of the mandate renewal, Council members are also expected to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s annual report on the situation concerning Western Sahara. The Special Representative for Western Sahara and head of MINURSO, Alexander Ivanko, and the Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General, Staffan de Mistura, are the anticipated briefers. Read more

• UNDOF (Golan)

  In October, the Council will hold its quarterly consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Golan (UNDOF).  Read more

• Mali

  In October, the Council will hold its quarterly briefing on Mali, followed by consultations. Special Representative and head of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) El-Ghassim Wane is expected to brief. The mandate of MINUSMA expires on 30 June 2023. Read more

• Kosovo

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold its second briefing this year on the situation in Kosovo. Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) Caroline Ziadeh will brief on recent developments and the Secretary-General's latest report. Serbia is expected to participate under rule 37 and Kosovo under rule 39 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. Read more

• Somalia

  In October, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), which is set to expire on 31 October. The Chair of the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee Fergal Mythen (Ireland) is also expected to brief the Council.   Read more

• Lebanon

  In October, Security Council members will receive their semi-annual briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is expected to brief. The Secretary-General’s report is due on 12 October. Read more

• Women, Peace and Security

  In October, the Security Council is scheduled to hold its annual open debate on women, peace and security (WPS), which will be entitled “Strengthening women’s resilience and leadership as a path to peace in regions plagued by armed groups”. Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed, UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous and two women civil society representatives are the anticipated briefers. Read more

• Libya

  In October, the Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). The Council is also expected to vote on a resolution renewing the mission’s mandate, which expires on 31 October, in accordance with resolution 2647. Read more

• Haiti

  In October, the Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from Special Representative and head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) Helen La Lime on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s regular quarterly report on BINUH. The Council also expects to receive a report from the Secretary-General on options to support the Haitian National Police (HNP) in its fight against gang violence, in accordance with resolution 2645 of 15 July, which most recently renewed BINUH’s mandate for one year. Both reports are due by 15 October. Read more

• Syria

  In October, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing, possibly followed by consultations, on political and humanitarian developments in Syria. Consultations on the use of chemical weapons in Syria are also expected to be held this month.  Read more

• Great Lakes Region (DRC) 

  The Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Huang Xia, is expected to provide his biannual briefing to the Council in October on the implementation of the 2013 Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework (PSC Framework) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Great Lakes region.   Read more

• The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

  In October, the Security Council expects to hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland is expected to brief. Read more