October 2022 Monthly Forecast

Posted 2 October 2022
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Status Update since our September Forecast 

UN Peacekeeping  

On 7 September, the Security Council held a briefing on peacekeeping reform (S/PV.9123). Under-Secretary-General Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed the Security Council on resolution 2378 on peacekeeping reform, as well as the progress and challenges of implementing the Action for Peacekeeping (A4P) and the Action for Peacekeeping Plus (A4P+) initiatives. He highlighted difficulties facing UN peace operations, including attacks on peacekeepers using improvised explosive devices, misinformation and disinformation against peace operations, and violations of Status of Forces Agreements.  

Sudan 

On 13 September, the Security Council held an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on the UN Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (S/PV.9129). Special Representative and head of UNITAMS Volker Perthes briefed on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report (S/2022/667). Ibrahim Mudawi, the President of the Sudan Social Development Organization, briefed as well. Also on 13 September, the Council received the quarterly briefing by the chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Harold Adlai Agyeman (Ghana), on the committee’s work (S/PV.9128). 

Iraq (UNITAD) 

On 1 September, Council members issued a press statement condemning the violence throughout Iraq on 29 and 30 August (SC/15016). Among other matters, the press statement appealed for calm and restraint and urged all parties to avoid violence, peacefully resolve their political differences, and respect the rule of law, the right of peaceful assembly, and Iraqi institutions.  

On 15 September, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2651, which renewed the mandate of the UN Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by ISIL/Da’esh (UNITAD) for one year, until 17 September 2023. 

Armenia/Azerbaijan Border Clashes  

On 14 September, Security Council members held a meeting under “any other business” to discuss the clashes that erupted along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border on the night of 12-13 September. A ceasefire was brokered by Russia on the morning of 13 September; however, fighting continued. France requested the meeting, citing a 13 September letter to the Security Council by Armenia that called for an emergency Council meeting on the matter (S/2022/688). Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and Americas Miroslav Jenča briefed. The Council also held an open briefing on the issue on 15 September, during which Jenča again briefed (S/PV.9132).    

The situation along the border stabilised after another ceasefire was brokered by Russia on the morning of 15 September. According to media reports, 135 Armenian soldiers and 77 Azerbaijani troops were killed in the fighting, marking the worst outbreak of hostilities between the two countries since 2020.  

Protection of Civilians: Conflict and Food Security 

On 15 September, the Council held a briefing on armed conflict and food security, under the “Protection of civilians in armed conflict” agenda item (S/PV.9133). Brazil and Ireland, the Council’s focal points on conflict and hunger, requested the meeting following OCHA’s 26 August “white note” that provides an update on food insecurity due to conflict and violence in northern Ethiopia, northeast Nigeria, South Sudan, and Yemen. The Council heard briefings by Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths, World Food Programme Executive Director David Beasley, and Food and Agricultural Organization Chief Economist Máximo Torero Cullen. 

Myanmar  

On 16 September, Council members held closed consultations to receive a briefing from the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on Myanmar, Noeleen Heyzer, on her recent visits to Myanmar and Bangladesh.  She briefed members on her meeting with General Min Aung Hlaing—the commander-in-chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF) and the chairman of the State Administration Council (SAC), the de facto authority in Myanmar—on 17 August, as well as her meetings and visit to the Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazaar during her four-day visit to Bangladesh. In her briefing, Heyzer provided details of her meetings and elaborated on her decision to visit Myanmar despite not being able to meet with all parties. She also highlighted the escalating violence in Rakhine State. Following reports of attacks on 16 September by military helicopters in Myanmar, which apparently left 15 children missing and 11 children and 12 adults dead, Norway circulated a draft press statement on the attack. However, several members were unable to agree to the draft. The UK circulated a draft resolution at the end of September on various aspects of the situation in Myanmar.  

South Sudan  

On 16 September, the Security Council held an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on the UN Mission in South Sudan (S/PV.9134). Special Representative of the Secretary-General for South Sudan and head of UNMISS Nicholas Haysom briefed on the Secretary-General’s 90-day report (S/2022/689). A civil society representative, Lilian Riziq, President of the South Sudan Women’s Empowerment Network, also briefed. 

Afghanistan 

On 3 September, Council members issued a press statement condemning the continued terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, including the 2 September attack against the Guzargh mosque in Herat that killed at least 18 people and injured several more (SC/15018).  

On 6 September, Council members issued a press statement condemning the 5 September terrorist attack outside the embassy of the Russian Federation in Kabul. The attack was claimed by Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP), an entity affiliated with Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh), and resulted in the deaths of at least six people, including two employees of the Russian embassy, and injured several more (SC/15021).  

On 27 September, the Council convened for an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Afghanistan (S/PV.9137). The briefers were Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan Markus Potzel; Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Ghada Fathi Waly; and Fawzia Koofi, a women’s rights activist and former speaker of the parliament of Afghanistan. 

Democratic Republic of the Congo 

On 30 September, the Security Council held a briefing and consultations on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Council was briefed by: Bintou Keita, the Special Representative and head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO); the Chair of the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Michel Xavier Biang (Gabon); and Emery Mudinga, Director of the Angaza Institute based in Bukavu, DRC. Representatives of the DRC, Burundi and Rwanda also participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the provisional rules of procedure of the Council.  

Keita briefed the Council on the developments in DRC and the activities of MONUSCO based on the latest report of the Secretary-General (S/2022/709) published on 22 September. Biang explained the work of the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee. Mudinga shed light on the effects of illegal exploitation of natural resources in DRC

 

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