November 2013 Monthly Forecast

• Overview

  China will preside over the Security Council in November. Read more

• Status Update

  Recent developments on situations covered in this Forecast are in the relevant briefs. Interesting developments on other issues are included in this Status Update of Security Council activity in October 2013. Read more

• Notable Dates for November

  Notable Dates for November Read more

• In Hindsight: The Veto

  For two years—until the passage of resolution 2118 on 27 September requiring the verification and destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons—the veto blocked Security Council action on Syria, where a brutal civil war has claimed over 100,000 lives and prompted 2.2 million Syrians to flee into neighbouring countries. Joint China-Russia vetoes on three draft Syria resolutions have sparked discussion on and condemnation of the use of the veto, including by other permanent members.   Read more

• Sudan and South Sudan

  In November, the Council is expected to hold one (or two) meetings, likely in consultations, on compliance by Sudan, South Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) with resolution 2046. (Meetings on Sudan-South Sudan have been semi-monthly since May 2012, although Council members have discussed reducing the frequency of these meetings to once per month, with no final determination made at press time.) The Council also expects to adopt a resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), prior to its 30 November expiration. Read more

• Sudan (Darfur)

  In November, Ambassador María Cristina Perceval (Argentina), chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to provide the quarterly briefing in consultations on the Committee’s work.  Read more

• South Sudan

  In November, the Council expects to hold a briefing and consultations on the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). Hervé Ladsous, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, is expected to brief the Council on the Secretary-General’s report on UNMISS, due out in the first part of November. The mission’s mandate expires on 15 July 2014.  Read more

• UNOCA/LRA

  In November, the Security Council expects a briefing by Abou Moussa, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA), on the Secretary-General’s report on UNOCA and the implementation of the regional strategy on the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Either a presidential or a press statement is a possible outcome. Read more

• Guinea-Bissau

  In November, the Council expects to be briefed by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS), José Ramos-Horta. Read more

• Libya

  In November, the Council will receive the semi-annual briefing by ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda on recent developments concerning cases in Libya. The mandates of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and the Panel of Experts (PoE) assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee expire on 14 March and 16 April 2014, respectively. Read more

• Somalia

  In November, the Council is likely to consider adoption of two resolutions on Somalia: one reauthorising international anti-piracy measures, which are due to expire on 21 November, and another revising the mandate of the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), reauthorised on 6 March until 28 February 2014. Read more

• Yemen

  In November, Council members expect a briefing on Yemen by Jamal Benomar, the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen. A presidential statement is a likely outcome depending on whether the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) has concluded or not. Read more

• Lebanon (UNIFIL)

  In November, Special Coordinator Derek Plumbly will brief Council members in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701, which called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. Read more

• Syria

  In early November, Council members will be briefed in consultations on the first monthly report on the implementation of resolution 2118, which required the verification and destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. Council members will also be closely following developments related to humanitarian access and to the Geneva II peace talks.  Read more

• Iraq (UNAMI)

  In November, the new Special Representative, Nickolay Mladenov (Bulgaria), will brief the Council on the report on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). Council members are also due to receive a separate report from UNAMI on Iraq’s compliance with resolution 1284 regarding the repatriation or return of Kuwaiti nationals or their remains and the return of Kuwaiti property. This will be the first time that UNAMI will report on Iraq-Kuwait issues following the adoption of resolution 2107, which transferred this task to UNAMI.  Read more

• Bosnia and Herzegovina

  In November, the Council will hold its bi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The High Representative for BiH, Valentin Inzko, is expected to brief about developments in the country since he last addressed the Council on 14 May (S/PV.6966). Prior to this the Council will receive the latest report of the High Representative from the Secretary-General. Read more

• Kosovo

  In November the Council is scheduled to hold its quarterly debate on Kosovo. Farid Zarif, the Secretary-General’s Special Representative and head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), is expected to brief the Council on recent developments and the latest Secretary-General’s report. Read more

• DPRK (North Korea)

  In November, the chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas (Luxembourg), is scheduled to brief Council members in consultations. These briefings tend to be procedural in nature, and no outcome is expected. Read more

• Counter-Terrorism

  In November, the Council is scheduled to hold its semi-annual briefing, possibly followed by a debate, by the chairs of its counter-terrorism-related committees. The briefers will be Ambassador Gary Quinlan (Australia), chair of the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Mohammed Loulichki (Morocco), chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC) and Ambassador Oh Joon (Republic of Korea), chair of the 1540 Committee, concerning the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Read more